We enter another week of PGA Tour betting after cashing big on Viktor Hovland to win the Memorial Tournament. I’d be lying if I told you I didn’t spend the entire day Sunday drenched in sweat sitting on my couch. It was such an epic way to cash for 20 units. Even though I’m through the roof in excitement, the work is not done. We have the RBC Canadian Open this week, and the following week we are handicapping the US Open. So, let’s focus on the task at hand; our attempt to make even more money during this golf season.
This year’s Canadian Open will be at Oakdale Golf & Country Club. This year will be Oakdale’s first time hosting a professional golf tournament. That means our only data is from the scorecard, video flyovers, and anyone with boots on the ground. The official scorecard via the PGA Tour has Oakdale listed as a 7,264-yard par 72. There are three par 5s, which are reachable in two for most—the 12 par 4s span from 379 to 489 yards. Most will leave the golfers with a wedge from their tee shots. None of the three par 3s are listed beyond the 200-yard mark.
I’ve gathered that this course is a second-shot course, with most approaches coming from under 150 yards. Driving accuracy is critical, and length isn’t the be-all and end-all. The most significant advantage for length off the tee will be the benefit of having a short wedge in on most of the par 4s.
2023 RBC Heritage Outright Picks
Matt Fitzpatrick +1400
From a tournament-to-tournament basis, I was interested in how Matt Fitzpatrick would respond after winning the RBC Heritage. He followed up with a T35 at the Wells Fargo and a missed cut at the PGA Championship. It made sense why he struggled at Oak Hill. Those fairways were super tight, and Fitzpatrick isn’t always the most accurate off the tee. He’s not a sprayer, but even slightly missing the fairways is your undoing as a golfer at Oak Hill.
The following week at Memorial, I was excited to see. Missing fairways is also very penal at Muirfield, but they aren’t as narrow. The landing zones are much bigger. Fitzpatrick gained +3.8 strokes off the tee. His T9 finish showed mega grit. Had he not totally crapped the bed in round 1, he could’ve been in serious contention on Sunday.
This week, he plays another course that has penal rough, but the holes are short, and he should be able to have a wedge in on most holes. Fitzpatrick’s excellent approach, play, and solid putter should lift him if this tournament becomes a birdie fest.
Sam Burns +1600
Sam Burns is one of those golfers who models very well at very specific courses. That’s probably why it feels like he defends every tournament he wins. However, with this being the first edition of the Canadian Open at Oakdale, I don’t think we can build a perfect model. Burns is one of the best ball strikers in golf. What’s funny about his game right now is how he’s struggled with his irons. He’s been elite off the tee and excellent around and on the greens.
Now he gets to play a course where he likely won’t hit an iron longer than an 8-iron on the par 4s, and the demand for great wedges and putting becomes higher. When I built a model weighted heavily on easy short courses with approach shots less than 150 yards, Burns was fourth behind Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton, and S.H. Kim. I can’t bet McIlroy at +450 when he’s been struggling so much with his wedges, Hatton doesn’t win enough for me to back +1100, and S.H. Kim is someone I don’t mind skipping. That leaves me with Burns, a proven winner on Tour whose skillset should be perfect here.
