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Farmers Insurance Open: Niemann Worth Chancing in Round 3

Joaquin Niemann

Joaquin Niemann

Erich Schlegel-USA TODAY Sports

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The two men who headlined the odds board at PointsBet Sportsbook to begin the week remain atop heading into the second half of the Farmers Insurance Open. World No. 1 Jon Rahm and world No. 6 Justin Thomas took to the North Course on Thursday as each were able to card a 36-hole total of 13-under 131.

While Rahm was the one to make the most noise in Round 1, Thomas took the baton in Round 2. Highlighted by a chip-in birdie on No. 2, the 28-year-old carded nine birdies and nine pars to sign for a bogey-free round of 9-under 63. While Thomas has never made Torrey Pines an annual stop on his playing calendar – this is his first appearance in seven years – he looks to be right at home on the California coast.

He spoke to this after his round, saying, “It’s just unfortunately like a lot of events. Jon and I were talking about it today, we were talking about Tampa and he said how much he likes that golf course but just hasn’t fit in his schedule and that’s how this place has been for me. I really like the golf course, but it just hasn’t fit in the schedule.”

The same cannot be said for Rahm as his history with this venue is well-documented. The site of his first career victory and first career major championship, the Spaniard will now attempt to add a seventh PGA Tour title to his mantle. He did not beat around the bush in his post-round interview and was explicit with his intentions for the final two rounds.

Rahm said, “I mean, I’m here to win. Doesn’t matter who really, I’m with. I feel like -- if you’re playing with a better-known name like J.T., I think it makes for better TV. And for us, if we were to play together or go on to win, it would probably be a little more satisfying. But either way a win’s a win, it doesn’t really matter who’s out there with you.”

Rahm and Thomas are joined at the top of the leaderboard by Adam Schenk, who fired a 10-under 62 at the North Course on Thursday. Hitting four fairways on Thursday and only 11 total, the former Purdue Boilmaker has relied heavily on his putter through the first 36-holes. With the pressure of a weekend date with two of the biggest stars in the game, Schenk will have plenty to overcome despite possessing a share of the lead.

Our second round was every bit as infuriating as Rahm was at some points today. We continue to catch the wrong end of variance with our in-play wagers, but it is a long year, so I reckon it will smooth out as we progress deeper into the season.

On the outright front, Sungjae Im made a nice run for us, posting the day’s best score on the South Course and getting to 8-under for the tournament. With Im and Joaquin Niemann (-7) positioned to make a charge, we will forgo any additions and look to improve our matchup record.

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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):

+120: Jon Rahm

+240: Justin Thomas

+1200: Cameron Tringale

+1800: Adam Schenk

+4000: Dustin Johnson, Luke List, Si Woo Kim, Sungjae Im

+5000: Jason Day, Peter Malnati, Scottie Scheffler

+6600: Will Zalatoris

+7000: Billy Horschel, Ryan Palmer

+8000: Alex Smalley

+10000: Aaron Rai, Joaquin Niemann, Marc Leishman, Sahith Theegala


Round 3 Plays:

Marc Leishman –122 over Patrick Reed at BetRivers (1.22 units):

What is the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a different result. Insane or not, Leishman put together a solid second-round despite not coming through for our purposes. Hitting 14-of-18 greens in regulation, the Australian’s iron-play continued to be a strong point in his game.

As he was terrific in the ball-striking department when he took to Torrey Pines South on Wednesday. Hopeful this will carry over in his return to the Rees Jones redesign, if Leishman is able to find a touch more accuracy off-the-tee and convert just a couple more scoring opportunities, he should card a nice third-round score.

Reed’s fast finish on Thursday propelled him to a round of 6-under 66. Currently second in Scrambling and tied for 131st in Greens in Regulation, my same thought process from 24 hours ago remains. The pressure on his short-game will boil over sooner or later and for our sake, I am hoping for sooner.


Joaquin Niemann –110 over Billy Horschel at DraftKings (1.10 units):

Coming into the week, I was high on Niemann’s chances as I believed his game was well-suited for Torrey Pines South. Between the need for a strong off-the-tee presence and precision with irons, the young Chilean impressed in Round 1, ranking second in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.

With a bogey-free round of 3-under 69 under his belt on this course, I am expecting more of the same tomorrow as the more difficult conditions may be to his liking. As opposed to Horschel who went around Torrey Pines in 10 additional strokes in Round 2.

Signing for rounds of 63-73, the 35-year-old ranked fourth in SG: Around-the-Green and 76th in SG: Approach on Thursday. A gritty competitor, the lack of pop off-the-tee plus the inconsistency in his iron-play this season makes the South Course all the more difficult. While he holds the advantage on the greens, Niemann’s ball-striking should be too much over the course of 18-holes.

2/3-Balls YTD: -2.80 units, -22.76%

Total YTD: +52.43 units, +212.30%

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