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Another week filled with multiple courses means a split first-round leader market as the normal pool of 156 players is effectively cut in half. The question remains do we target those on Torrey Pines South, Torrey Pines North, or possibly both?
With shot tracker available on the South Course and most of the cameras on the behemoth of the par-72, those who want to watch their wagers unfold may be inclined to target the U.S. Open venue. Featuring the tournament-favorites at PointsBet Sportsbook of Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas as well as Hideki Matsuyama in the first-round, I will instead look to the North Course for our selections.
Measuring just under 7,300 yards, the Tom Weiskopf redesign has been known to yield lower scores than its counterpart. About 2.5 strokes easier throughout the years, this should lend to some outsiders threatening for the first-round lead.
Which bodes well for us, considering that is typically our cup of tea. Needing to take advantage of the four par-5s in addition to the drivable par-4 seventh, a score in the neighborhood of 8-under should secure a Wednesday payday.
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First-Round Leader Selections:
Scott Stallings +6600 (0.30 units) at BetMGM:
We got our first glimpse of Stallings last week as he continued to hit the gym hard over the offseason. Missing the cut at The American Express, the ball-striking appeared to be in a solid spot, posting +1.1 SG: Off-the-Tee and +0.4 SG: Approach in Round 1. Only to be let down by his short-game, a return to a familiar spot like Torrey Pines should be a welcomed sight.
With three rounds now under his belt, I expect Stallings to have a much better week with the putter in hand. The 36-year-old was making vast improvements in that area of his game to end 2021 and I am willing to chalk up last week’s first-round performance on the greens to some potential rust.
While the results have not stacked up at Torrey Pines since 2014 and 2015, most of the poor outings can be attributed to his play on the South Course. On the North, it is a completely different story as he has posted five sub-70 scores, including three consecutive rounds of 3-under 69.
Sahith Theegala +7000 (0.29 units) at FanDuel:
While Theegala has yet to play a professional round on the North Course during his PGA Tour career, the former collegiate standout from Pepperdine provides plenty of upside. Leading after the first-round at the Country Club of Jackson, the 24-year-old signed for a bogey-free 8-under 64 last fall.
Running into a bit of trouble to end 2021, Theegala appears to have rediscovered his game to begin 2022, specifically his short-game. Strong around-the-green and an underrated putter, the native turf of California should bring some sense of comfort.
Long off-the-tee, Theegala’s Wednesday performance will be reliant on his iron-play. While at a whole his approach numbers look poor, I would classify them more so as sporadic. He has posted single round SG: Approach figures of +1.5, +1.4, +1.6, +1.6, +2.4, and +2.3 this season, so if he decides to put up those, he will have a chance in Round 1.
Brandon Hagy +10000 (0.20 units) at BetMGM:
I would be lying if I said the last two selections were not late additions to the card. With Charley Hoffman withdrawing Tuesday afternoon, we had to pivot, and Hagy is about as boom-or-bust as they come. The former Cal Golden Bear does not appear to have much form, but I was impressed - as I easily am - with how he played in the first-round at The American Express.
A native of California, the 30-year-old should relish playing in the Golden State as he is a perfect fit for the North Course at Torrey Pines. Ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green by way of ranking third in SG: Off-the-Tee and 14th in SG: Approach last Thursday at the Stadium Course, if Hagy strikes the ball in a similar manner on Wednesday, he will have an outside chance to lead as his short-game is due for a bounce back.
Chesson Hadley +12500 (0.16 units) at Bet MGM:
Hadley is playing poor, has poor course history, and Torrey Pines should (and has not) suit his game. However, the the 34-year-old is long off-the-tee and can catch lightning in a bottle on the greens, which is good enough for me when looking at a single round.
Like Theegala, Hadley’s iron-play ventures through the deepest of valleys and up to the highest of peaks and because of this, I do not mind him at this price. With a noteworthy first-round performance at the Shriners Children’s Open in the memory bank, he has proven to have what it takes to go low in the first-round.
First-Round Leaders YTD: -2.95 units, -100.00%
Total YTD: +55.38 units, +254.64%
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