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Stop if you have heard this one before, Jon Rahm leads after a day of play at Torrey Pines South. The world No. 1 continued his blessed love affair with the San Diego municipal on Wednesday, firing a 6-under 66 and clipping the field average by nearly seven-strokes.
Paired with Justin Thomas (-4) and Dustin Johnson (-4), the trio were in a class of their own for much of the day. Carding a combined 17 birdies and an eagle, the three men weaved their way to the top of the odds board at PointsBet Sportsbook.
Rahm touched on this after his round saying, “You don’t see a combined 14 under as a group on the South. Yes, the conditions were relatively easy. I mean, there’s not much wind, but you’ve still got to play this golf course.”
He went on to add, “I think it all started off the tee. I hit it great off the tee, put myself in really good positions, and the few times I was off, for the most part I was able to give myself a chance to save the hole so I think that was the key. Nothing was really bad, I feel like everything was feeling good, everything was coming out and feeling the way it should and it showed in the score.”
They will head to the easier North Course tomorrow which played to an average of 69.10, compared to the South’s 72.78. While they do not currently possess the top spot on the leaderboard, there is a good chance one of them will by the time play is completed tomorrow.
As that honor falls on the shoulders of Billy Horschel. The former Florida Gator lit up the North Course on Wednesday, collecting nine birdies, and signing for a bogey-free round of 9-under. Coming into this week having struggled with his iron-play in Hawaii, it will be interesting to see how his game will hold up on the South Course in Round 2.
Our first-round was not as fruitful as Horschel’s as we failed to sniff the top of the leaderboard. With most of our outright selections having played the South Course in Round 1, we will sit tight as I expect a big Thursday out of Joaquin Niemann. Instead, we will look to a couple three-balls to wash away our Wednesday woes.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):
+250: Jon Rahm
+1000: Justin Thomas
+1200: Billy Horschel
+1400: Dustin Johnson
+2000: Cameron Tringale
+2200: Luke List, Sam Burns, Xander Schauffele
+2500: Daniel Berger, Scottie Scheffler, Will Zalatoris
+2800: Tony Finau
+3500: Joaquin Niemann
+4000: Bryson DeChambeau, Francesco Molinari, Marc Leishman, Michael Thompson, Rickie Fowler
+5000: Ryan Palmer
+6000: Aaron Wise, Cameron Davis, Justin Rose, Maverick McNealy
+6600: Hideki Matsuyama, Max Homa
+7000: Brooks Koepka, Jhonattan Vegas, Sahith Theegala, Wyndham Clark
Round 2 Plays (Odds Via PointsBet):
Marc Leishman (+125) over Patrick Reed and Phil Mickelson (1.00 unit):
This essentially boils down to a player I had high hopes for heading into the week and two I did not. They did not do anything on Wednesday to change my mind as Leishman was solid with the exception of his short-game. Ranking 13th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, the 2020 Farmers champion posted +0.53 SG: Off-the-Tee and +1.62 SG: Approach.
Struggling on and around-the-greens, I would expect the Australian to look a bit sharper in that department on Torrey Pines North. As that is how the defending champion, Reed, got by in Round 1. Carding an even-par 72, the American led the field from around-the-green and ranked 31st in SG: Putting.
The 31-year-old has not looked like his normal self for quite some time now, namely since his health scare last summer. Hitting only eight greens in regulation in Round 1, the pressure applied to his short-game is bound to burst eventually. If the case, Leishman should be right there to clean it up and take care of Reed and Mickelson in the process.
Carlos Ortiz (+190) over Chez Reavie and Talor Gooch (1.00 unit):
It is always an unsettling feeling to wager against your headline selection of the week, so I will happily be proven wrong if so. However, the inconsistency which Gooch has displayed his last eight rounds is a bit concerning as his ball-striking has been sporadic at best. A small sample, yes, the Oklahoma State product ranked 73rd in SG: Off-the-Tee and 51st in SG: Approach on Wednesday and if not for a timely short-game, his round of 1-over 73 could have been much worse.
Getting the better of Gooch by one-stroke was Ortiz, who was actually outdone by Reavie. However, the Mexican will be our selection as he had a great day striking the ball. Inside the top-15 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach, he appears to be completely healthy after battling injuries in the fall.
Having entered the final round a year ago with a share of the lead with Reed, clearly something about Torrey Pines appeals to Ortiz. Listed at the same price as Reavie, the 30-year-old possesses a bit more firepower than the Arizona State Sun Devil thus pushing him over the edge for Round 2.
2/3-Balls YTD: -0.80 units, -7.77%
Total YTD: +54.43 units, +239.81%
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