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“I love Riviera. I think it’s arguably, it’s in the conversation as the best golf course in the world. It’s more so that than anything else really, but obviously the fact that it’s an invitational and Tiger’s taken it over and all that added stuff, too, but I would have said that before it became a TGR Foundation event.” said Jordan Spieth after his first-round of 5-under 66.
Taking the early lead on Thursday alongside fellow Longhorn Scottie Scheffler, the two Texans were able to effectively navigate Hogan’s Alley. With the course drying out and winds freshening, it appeared as if their rounds of 5-under would hold up to the afternoon wave.
However, Joaquin Niemann had other plans. Tying the low opening round in Genesis Invitational history, the young Chilean signed for an 8-under 63. Gaining nearly seven-strokes from tee-to-green, Niemann carded nine birdies against a three-putt bogey with his longest connection on the greens coming from just inside 9-feet.
Highlighted by back-to-back birdies on the difficult par-3 fourth and the par-4 fifth, the 23-year-old understands just how special his first-round was. Saying, “Yeah, I think it’s got to be one of my best days on the golf course, especially in a place like this with this history. Riviera Country Club is one of my favorite golf courses and this event is my favorite during the year.”
Niemann went on to add, “...you always work to have these kinds of days. Yeah, you always know that you’re never going to have these days four days in a row. It’s a good way to start. I know it’s going to be different days during the week, so I’ve got to be ready for everything and have the best attitude for it.”
Off early tomorrow morning in colder weather, it will be interesting to see how he takes to Riviera in different conditions. With putting surfaces potentially smoother, if able to continue this type of ball-striking on Friday, Niemann should have a chance to extend his three-stroke lead.
As for us, there were some moments of potential in Round 1 with Aaron Wise, Keegan Bradley, and Maverick McNealy. Wagers I would (and will) make again, we will take it on the chin and move on. With yet another one of our outright selections leading after the first-round, we will hope to make a splash in Round 2.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet Sportsbook):
+450: Joaquin Niemann
+900: Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler
+1100: Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth
+1200: Cameron Smith, Jon Rahm
+1600: Max Homa
+2200: Rory McIlroy
+2500: Jason Kokrak, Xander Schauffele
+2800: Patrick Cantlay
+3300: Adam Scott, Will Zalatoris
+4000: Cameron Young, Paul Casey
+5000: Tony Finau
+6600: Abraham Ancer, Charley Hoffman, Maverick McNealy, Sam Burns, Viktor Hovland
+8000: Bubba Watson, Carlos Ortiz, Dylan Frittelli, Russell Knox, Sahith Theegala, Si Woo Kim
+10000: Brooks Koepka, Cameron Tringale, Sungjae Im, Marc Leishman, Martin Laird, Patton Kizzire
Round 2 Plays (Odds Via PointsBet):
Jon Rahm +125 over Jordan Spieth and Scottie Scheffler (1.00 unit):
It is not a matter of if, but when Rahm will figure things out on the greens. Gaining nearly six-strokes on the field by way of ball-striking (off-the-tee + approach), the Spaniard was incredibly impressive on Thursday. Despite his prowess with driver and iron in hand, Rahm was only able to put together a round of 2-under 69.
Losing nearly a stroke around-the-green and north of three-strokes putting, the world No. 1 is very much in line to bounce back – granted, this sentiment rings true for the past month or so. Before arriving this week, Rahm had averaged +0.92 SG: Putting per round at Riviera and a putting performance in this ballpark should be enough to get the job done in Round 2.
While their rounds of 5-under were strong, that should be as good as it gets on the greens for the two men from Dallas. Namely Scheffler who has historically struggled on Poa annua and these complexes specifically. With Spieth suffering from some inconsistencies with his ball-striking since August, I will side with the favorite and ever steady Rahm.
Xander Schauffele +125 over Collin Morikawa and Cameron Champ (1.00 unit):
Let’s take Champ out of the equation for a moment, which surely will not come back to haunt us. No offense to the three-time winner on the PGA Tour, but our focus is on Morikawa who has admittingly been trying to figure out his golf swing.
Getting “too steep” in Dubai, the 25-year-old believes he now has his irons in a comfortable spot. However, his first-round metrics would suggest otherwise as he posted negative SG: Approach numbers. Aided by birdie efforts from off the green on Nos. 4 and 18 as well as an uncharacteristic +1.33 SG: Putting, he signed for a round of 4-under.
Fading the best iron player in the world is never for the faint of heart yet given his history on these greens and his recent play, this may be the time to do so. Especially when given the option of Schauffele who is coming off a performance of +13.16 SG: Tee-to-Green in last week’s WM Phoenix Open.
Picking up where he left off, the San Diego native put up +2.35 SG: Tee-to-Green in Round 1, relying solely on his ball-striking. While Schauffele looks uncomfortable on the greens to begin 2022, he has averaged +0.30 SG: Putting per round at Riviera and if able to perform up to this level, he should get past Morikawa (and Champ).
Parlay: +406 (0.50 units)
2/3-Balls YTD: -4.25 units, -16.43%
Total YTD: +40.26 units, +82.19%
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