It continues. The best week of the year. Masters Week! We have Masters coverage, and we will be betting all week. This is the week that many golf fans look forward to. There’s a buzz in the air. Patrons are dawning their favorite green shirts as they battle the hills of Augusta National Golf Club. It’s a special time that we must take advantage of. I’d say the old Brad would already have about 45 bets placed and wouldn’t care about value. This Brad, the one writing this article, hoping not only to have fun but to make boatloads of money, is out here value hunting.
In majors, first-timers are fun to fade. Sahith Theegala, during his range session, said that when he arrived on the course Monday, it was the most nervous he’s ever been. He was so nervous that he could barely swing a golf club. Debutants at the Masters have more than just pressure they must overcome; they also must deal with the tricky angulation and course layout that can only be found at Augusta National.
In this article, I will not only be fading a debutant but also a fan favorite who has missed back-to-back cuts leading into the Masters.
2023 Masters - Tournament Matchup Bets
Tommy Fleetwood over Matt Fitzpatrick (+125) 1-unit
In the past tournament history over the last five seasons, Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick are eerily similar. Both finished T14 here last season, and both have had up-and-down performances with about an average finishing position of T30. If we were betting using just tournament history, then Fleetwood’s average finishing position of T26 versus Fitzpatrick’s average finishing position of T30 would be enough to warrant taking the underdog at +125. However, we all know more goes into golf handicapping than just tournament history.
Leading into majors, the golfer’s current form is just as important as course history. Fitzpatrick won the US Open last season, but he’s not entering the Masters in a similar fashion. Fitzpatrick has been battling a neck injury, which has led to a few shaky performances. Since his T7 finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, Fitzpatrick has missed four cuts in six events. Even before those six events, a bit of worry started to arise in his game. He lost -7.7 strokes on approach at the BMW, then followed that up losing strokes on approach in six more events. He’s only gained strokes on approach one time this season, and that was his T14 at the Arnold Palmer. With a thought of him possibly returning to last year’s form, it was quickly dispelled by losing -3.1 strokes at The Players and -1.9 at Valspar.
Fleetwood, on the other only has one missed cut through his first six events on the season. He’s struggled a bit off the tee at times, but he’s gained strokes on approach in every event he’s played this season. He’s also a wizard around the greens; he’s gained strokes around the greens at every event this season, gaining as much at +4.9 at Valspar, where he finished T3. Valspar wasn’t his only close call this season. He finished T4 at the CJ Cup, just three strokes back from the eventual winner, Rory McIlroy, after his blazing 6-under in the final round. This might be the best form we’ve seen Fleetwood in quite some time, leaving me loving this matchup between him and Fitzpatrick.
Joaquin Niemann over Tom Kim (-130) 0.5 unit
With the lack of shot link data on the LIV Tour, it’s hard to know which areas of each golfer’s game have excelled. The Chilean star Joaquin Niemann has my attention for the golfer I plan on using to fade Masters debutant, Tom Kim. Niemann is without a win thus far on the LIV Tour, but he does have two 3rd place finishes and a 5th place finish through seven events. Nieman’s skillset should be a great fit here. He’s a great ball striker who hits the ball a mile. He scores well on par 5s, and his wedge game is good enough to help him get up and down more times than not. In his past two seasons, he’s finished no better than T35 here, but I have Kim projected around T44 in my model.
Ultimately, this is just a Kim fade. Not only is this his first Masters, but he’s also been in a bit of bad form. The 20-year phenom already has two PGA Tour wins, but there have been some scary issues in his game over the past few events. I never considered him one of the best putters on tour, but he’s lost strokes putting in three straight events and in six of his last eight.
It’s not only the lack of putting success that worries me. He’s lost strokes around the greens in two of the last three and on approach in three of the previous four. Guessing that Kim would have success this week is not something I’m prepared to do. For a small shot, it’s worth taking the fade on him.
