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The FedEx Cup Playoffs is set to begin Thursday in Jersey City, New Jersey as 124 of the top-125 players hope to kick off their postseason aspirations on a high note. With views of New York City in the distance, players are readying for a strong examination that Liberty National is likely to present.
As it was here in 2019 where the ultimate grinder, Patrick Reed, captured the first event of the postseason, finishing at 16-under, good for a one-stroke victory. Reed has always had the ability to bring his game to some of the sternest tests of golf such as Augusta National, Bethpage Black, Torrey Pines, and Trump National Doral.
With players such as Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, and Jordan Spieth finding themselves inside the top-10 in the 2019 Northern Trust, it is likely a major championship caliber leaderboard is present come Sunday. However, despite all the big names that eventually rose to the top, it was Troy Merritt who got things started that postseason.
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Out of the gates with a 9-under 62, Merritt possessed the solo first-round lead in 2019, holding off Dustin Johnson by a stroke and few more of the game’s elite by two and three. Merritt has always been known as one of those players that can get hot out of thin air, especially with his putter, as he shared the first-round lead not too long ago at the 3M Open.
Yet when discussing what skillset is needed to dismantle Liberty National, you can’t help but look at the world’s best. It’s not often that the majority of top-ranked players in the world are in the mix, but that’s exactly what transpired in 2019.
This makes things pretty simple on our end when it comes to what we’ll be looking at for our first-round selections. A strong tee-to-green presence with an emphasis on iron-play and an ability to take advantage of the par-4’s as those holes will be the difference maker on Thursday. That combined with birdie-making and bogey-avoiding metrics and hopefully we can get back on track after an ugly Round 1 last week.
The oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook have priced the first-round leader market ahead of The Northern Trust with world No. 1 Rahm leading the way at +2000. The Spaniard opened the 2019 Northern Trust with a 7-under 64 and broke 70 in all four of his rounds, so he is not to be trifled with this week, despite coming off a four-week hiatus.
Odds to Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
+2000: Jon Rahm
+2800: Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele
+3000: Collin Morikawa
+3300: Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Daniel Berger, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy
+4000: Abraham Ancer, Adam Scott, Cameron Smith, Harris English, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed, Paul Casey, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland, Webb Simpson
+5000: Jason Kokrak, Kevin Kisner, Russell Henley, Sam Burns
To Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
Jhonattan Vegas +6000:
Vegas has been a longtime staple in the first-round leader article and we’ll be going back to ol’ reliable for the postseason opener. With first-round scores of 65-66-64-67 in his last four starts, he has proven time and time again that he is capable of getting out of the gates fast.
With single-round performances of +2.7 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green at the John Deere, +4.7 SG: Tee-to-Green at the 3M Open, +4.14 SG: Tee-to-Green at the Olympic Games, and +2.2 SG: Tee-to-Green at the Wyndham Championship, his putter, as it tends to be, is the eventual difference maker to his and our Thursday aspirations.
When he led after the first-round at the 3M Open, he was able to gain nearly two-strokes on the greens. If he is able to muster up a similar performance with the flat stick at Liberty National, a similar outcome could be in store. While he didn’t play great here in 2019, Vegas looks like a completely different player this summer and should hopefully keep the momentum rolling into the playoffs.
Talor Gooch +8000:
Some proclaimed last week as Gooch week and after getting to 4-under through his first three holes at the Wyndham Championship, it appeared as if their wishes would be granted. Yet, the former Oklahoma State Cowboy faltered during the middle part of his first-round and eventually missed the cut at Sedgefield CC.
With some issues on and around-the-greens last Thursday, I am hoping Gooch worked on his short-game short comings ahead of The Northern Trust as the iron-play has been steady. Posting +2.9 and +2.0 SG: Approach in his last two first-rounds in the United States, the 29-year-old is just a hot putting performance away from a strong postseason start.
Despite the lack of jaw-dropping numbers on the green, Gooch has shown some flashes with single round performances of +1.3, +1.7, and +2.3 SG: Putting over the last few months. While he did open the 2019 Northern Trust with a 3-over 74, he bounced back on Friday with a 4-under 67. I expect something in the neighborhood of that second round score and possibly even lower if the putter comes to life.
Sebastian Munoz +10000:
It is hard to ignore the current trend that Munoz is riding when it comes to first-round performances. Outside of The Open, the Colombian has posted Round 1 scores of 66-67-69-63 in his last four starts. In those four outings, Munoz has gained an average of 2.05 strokes on approach and is typically at the mercy of his short-game when it comes to threatening the first-round lead.
Yet the putter has shown signs of life as of late and even more so in the first-round. With performances +1.9 SG: Putting at the Travelers Championship and +2.5 SG: Putting at the John Deere Classic, Munoz is capable of a strong 18 with the flat stick.
The chipping isn’t far behind either as Munoz was able to successfully navigate the Donald Ross greens from just off the putting surfaces. With strong efforts the last three days in Greensboro, that confidence from around-the-green could be the eventual difference maker. A strong par-4 player and capable birdie-maker, if Munoz can hold steady when he misses a green, then he should be able to go low on Thursday.
Max Homa +10000:
Can’t stop, won’t stop when it comes to wagering on Homa. The irons have been just too good in the first-round for me to ignore the Genesis Invitational winner’s prospects on Thursday. Having gone to bat for him at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude, Homa was close to chasing down English’s opening 62, yet a faulty short-game and a few late mistakes left him with a 4-under 66.
Gaining +3.2 SG: Approach that Thursday in Memphis, Homa has continued to impress with his iron-play with recent first-round performances of +1.3, +2.2, and +2.0 SG: Approach this summer. The driver has been strong as well, posting positive results off-the-tee more often than not, which should theoretically translate to success at Liberty National.
Opening this tournament in 2019 with a 5-under 66, Homa was just three adrift from Merritt’s opening 62. A completely retooled and revamped player since then, I believe he could improve on such an effort. In order to do so, not only will his chipping and putting need to be better, but also his par-4 scoring as it has been holding him back in the opening round.
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Maverick McNealy +10000:
There has been a lot of Pebble Beach discussion this week when discussing possible correlated courses. Whether the need to keep the ball in the fairway or to hit precise iron shots into these smaller than average greens, Pebble Beach has been tossed around. If that truly is the case, then McNealy should garner plenty of consideration not only for the first-round, but for the full-tournament, as he arrives in some of the best form of his young career.
Coming off five straight top-30 finishes, three of which have doubled as top-20’s, McNealy has found his game from tee-to-green. While he has stumbled in a few of these starts over the weekend, he hasn’t out of the gates, posting a Round 1 scoring average of 68.20 in the last two months.
While he has gained strokes on approach in four straight first-rounds, the best McNealy has been able to muster up is +1.6 SG: Approach. Having done a great job of keeping the ball in play and avoiding the costly mistakes, it appears as if the 25-year-old is just a slightly improved iron-performance away from a memorable first-round.
Henrik Norlander +10000:
It’s been a while since we’ve seen the Big Swede having played in the Olympic Games in Tokyo. He made his way into this article that week and will be doing so again for The Northern Trust. Opening with a 3-under 68 at Kasumigaseki Country Club, Norlander putted the lights out of the golf ball, gaining 2.17 strokes on the greens.
That should bode well for his chances at Liberty National as the iron-play is in a place where I am comfortable enough to back him. With positive performances on approach in four of his last five starts on the PGA Tour, the concern comes when discussing the competition that Norlander has been succeeding against.
With the strongest field of the year, The Northern Trust and the FedEx Cup Playoffs as a whole have a way of falling to the best in the world. Yet, I still have a sliver of confidence based on his recent resurgence and some strong play at courses such as Pebble Beach and Torrey Pines. If Merritt was able to get the job done in 2019, then why not Norlander in 2021?
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