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We are back and full of confidence after three of our selections at the 3M Open had a legitimate chance to capture the first-round lead. While it wasn’t meant to be for Tom Lewis and Chez Reavie, Jhonattan Vegas put the team on his back and grabbed a piece of the pie at +6000. We’ll look to carry the momentum into Tokyo as players prepare for the long-awaited Summer Olympics.
There are plenty of unknowns heading into Kasumigaseki Country Club. From what I can gather from various flyovers, course interviews, and scouring of the internet, it appears to be an Augusta National lite. With Tom Fazio leading the modernization of the course in preparation of the Olympics, Quail Hollow immediately comes to mind as it also boasts similar features to Augusta and was updated by Fazio ahead of the 2017 PGA Championship. Other courses that have been mentioned in comparison include Riviera and Harbour Town, so we have a general sense of the layout, but questions inevitably remain.
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Stretching to just about 7,500 yards, this par-71 features a quirky mix of holes. Three of the par-3’s measure north of 220 yards making the scoring all the more difficult on these holes. However, there are plenty of opportunities for birdies on the par-4’s as six of them are position plays off-the-tee. The remaining holes consist of three par-5’s and lengthier par-4’s.
That all makes sense when you read about the updates Fazio made to Kasumigaseki CC in 2016. Not only did he lengthen the golf course, but he removed many of the trees, refined the deep bunkering, and converted the two-green system that was in place on each hole into one large green with plenty of undulation to keep players on their toes.
As such, for our first-round leader selections, we will follow in Fazio’s footsteps and take some inspiration from what it takes to be successful at some of his other designs. Length off-the-tee, strong iron-play, and a combination of converting birdie opportunities and avoiding dreadful three-putts is typically the path to success on a Fazio (and many other) design. While around-the-green may be tricky, we’ll hope our selections can avoid that and put together a full day of ball-striking.
The odds makers at PointsBet Sportsbook have been kind enough to price up the first-round leader market nice and early for us. With it being a limited field of 60 players, the prices are shorter than usual, as you can infer from Collin Morikawa leading the way at +1000. In total, 10 players are listed at +2000 or below, making our job of finding value down the board a bit more difficult, but also easier at the same time.
It should be noted that there is a typhoon lurking with the potential to interrupt play. You can read more about what is the equivalent to a tropical storm in the United States, here. Not only that, but play is set to begin at 6:30 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, so be sure to place your wagers in a timely manner.
Odds to Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
+1000: Collin Morikawa
+1200: Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele
+1600: Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland
+1700: Hideki Matsuyama, Paul Casey, Patrick Reed
+2000: Abraham Ancer, Shane Lowry
+2500: Cameron Smith, Corey Conners, Tommy Fleetwood
+3000: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Joaquin Niemann, Marc Leishman, Sungjae Im
+3500: Alex Noren
+4000: Garrick Higgo, Guido Migliozzi, Jhonattan Vegas, Mackenzie Hughes, Si Woo Kim, Thomas Pieters
+5000: Carlos Ortiz, Thomas Detry
To Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
Sebastian Munoz (+6000):
With a condensed field, there are plenty of players listed above that you would typically find me backing. Instead, we venture down and start our first-round leader card with Munoz. A staple on Thursday leaderboards, the Colombian comes to Tokyo having had a great go at the John Deere Classic a few weeks ago.
Carding a first-round of 8-under 63, much to our dismay as he bested one of our selections by one, Munoz has converted hot iron-play into low scores on a consistent basis. In his last three non-major first-rounds, Munoz has combined for +5.9 Strokes Gained: Approach. Two of those rounds, Munoz gained more than 1.9 strokes on the greens, further validating his ability to get out of the gates fast.
While there are many questions surrounding Kasumigaseki CC, Munoz’s game should travel to Tokyo. He’s been successful in his two Masters appearances, as well as at Shadow Creek, another Fazio design, where he captured a top-10 finish in the CJ Cup. If he is able to avoid the big numbers, which he is prone to, he has ample firepower to contend in Round 1.
Henrik Norlander (+7000):
The big Swede should come to Tokyo with plenty of confidence based on his recent play. The last time we saw Norlander tee it up, he was on his way to a top-5 finish at the Barbosal Championship. On the shoulders of strong ball-striking, the skills that served him well in Kentucky should hopefully do the same in the Olympics.
He’s now gained strokes tee-to-green in six straight starts. Those performances are typically in spite of his around-the-green play as it has held him back from even better finishes. While that may be the case over four full rounds, there’s a slight uptick in that department in Round 1 alone.
Averaging just about 1.22 SG: Approach over his last five first-rounds, Norlander has been able to mask his around-the-green deficiency. However, when called upon, it has answered the call more often than not, posting positive results in three out of his last five outings. If it answers the call once again, Norlander could find himself towards the top of the leaderboard by the end of the first-round.
Mito Pereira (+7000):
This selection does not come without some hesitation as the three-victory, Korn Ferry Tour promote has now played four consecutive weeks on the PGA Tour. That combined with a flight from Minnesota to Japan and fatigue will certainly affect the Chilean’s chances in the Olympics.
However, I am hopeful he can garner enough energy to put his best foot forward on Thursday as his play has been terrific as of late. A top-5 finish the Barbosal Championship was followed up with a tie for sixth at the 3M Open. Utilizing the backdoor en route to his top-10 finish at TPC Twin Cities, I am willing to wager Pereira will take a page out of Rickie Fowler’s playbook and ride final round momentum into the following week.
With his last three first-round scores reading 70-67-70, there isn’t anything to write home about it, yet I remain optimistic. Pereira lost strokes on the greens in each of those rounds, with dreadful performances of –2.6 SG: Putting at the Barbosal Championship and –2.0 SG: Putting at the John Deere Classic. If he can somehow fight through the jet lag and putting woes, then the rest of his game should hold up.
Rasmus Hojgaard (+7000):
Keeping with our theme of ball-strikers who can’t putt, Hojgaard checks in more so as an iron-specialist, who also happens to struggle on the greens. While he rarely tees it up here in the United States, the young Dane has found more than his fair share of success on the European Tour.
Boasting two European Tour victories in his career, the 20-year-old is very much a boom-or-bust option when it comes to leading after the first round. Sitting 18th in SG: Approach and 22nd in SG: Tee-to-Green on the European Tour, he’s proven plenty of times that he’s just a solid putting week away from contending.
I’m willing to stake he’ll at least get things going on the greens in Round 1 at Kasumigaseki CC. He’s been decent enough on Thursdays as of late, with scores of 68, 70, and 70 in his last three outings. He was able to post those rounds with an uncooperative putter, so if things start to fall on the greens, then so will Hojgaard’s score.
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Rikuya Hoshino (+7000):
All eyes will be on Matsuyama this week and rightfully so. We haven’t seen the Masters champion since he withdrew in the middle of the Rocket Mortgage Classic due to a positive COVID-19 test and has a legitimate chance to capture the gold medal in his home country.
However, let’s not sleep on his fellow countryman, Hoshino, who has not only racked up victories on the Japan Golf Tour, but has also held his own in this year’s majors. Of his five career Japan Tour victories, three have taken place in the last year, including his most recent win in May at the Asia-Pacific Diamond Golf Cup.
He’s been able to translate this play into some success on golf’s biggest stage. Specifically at the U.S. Open, where he finished in a tie for 26th. Posting +8.2 SG: Approach at Torrey Pines, Hoshino was second only to Morikawa with his irons. At 86th in the official world golf rankings, Hoshino’s game can compete with the world’s best. Factor in the comfort of playing in his home country and he could very well steal the spotlight from Matsuyama (for a brief moment) with a low score on Thursday.
Sepp Straka (+10000):
I understand, Straka has now failed to make it to the weekend in six of his last seven starts. That being said, the ball-striking is hardly the problem. Having made the unfortunate mistake of turning to Straka in a Round 2 three-ball at the 3M Open, I followed his play more closely than anyone ever should.
I was mildly impressed, simple as that, Straka gave himself birdie opportunity after birdie opportunity, and while the vast majority of them fell by the wayside, it was enough to draw me in for a first-round leader wager.
Posting +5.2 SG: Ball-Striking in only two days in Blaine, Minnesota, I am hoping the extra couple of days off will serve the Austrian well. He’ll need to be better on and around-the-greens, there’s no doubt about that, but with first-rounds of 68, 70, 72, and 66 in his last four tournaments, he’s worth a stab at +10000 in a limited field.
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