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It is a congested leaderboard heading into an unusual Monday finish at The Players Championship. With big names like Brooks Koepka, Collin Morikawa, Jordan Spieth, and Xander Schauffele all missing out on the second half of the tournament, the path for an unexpected winner has widened.
Despite Scott Piercy’s best efforts in moving the cut line to 2-over and allowing Rory McIlroy and the third round live-add hero, Scottie Scheffler, in with an outside chance, neither were able to make a big move in Sunday’s setting sun.
Instead, an unlikely name rose to the top of the leaderboard in Anirban Lahiri. Arriving to TPC Sawgrass for the sixth time in his career, the Olympian was yet to play himself into the weekend in Ponte Vedra Beach. Given the luxury to see Saturday and Sunday due to the weather no matter his form, I was surprised to see Lahiri’s name on the player interview list earlier in the week.
Making the 13th start of his 2021-22 season, the Indian has missed seven cuts and finished inside the top-40 only once, a result which came at the World Wide Technology Championship last November. To say his play this week is surprising would simply be an understatement.
Out of nowhere Lahiri stands atop the strongest field in golf, but despite this stretch of rough play, his confidence has remained. As it has been circulated on the innerwebs by now, the 34-year-old said on Tuesday, “You’re one week away from being a PGA TOUR winner. You’re one week away from being at Augusta. You’re one week away from having a two, three-year exemption. You’re one week away from you having a different kind of conversation with me.”
Less than a week later – although it feels like an eternity – the conversation has changed. Yet to lay claim to a trophy on the PGA Tour, the 18-time winner worldwide will head into the final day of The Players Championship with a one-stroke lead over Harold Varner III and Tom Hoge.
While the weather draw and lack of star power at the top of the leaderboard may creep into some conversations, it is parity who has been the most dominant player in 2022. Littered with newcomers, it is almost as if this should have been expected as both Lahiri and Varner have the potential to continue this trend of first-time winners.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet Sportsbook):
+750: Sam Burns
+800: Tom Hoge
+900: Paul Casey
+1000: Cameron Smith
+1000: Harold Varner III
+1200: Daniel Berger, Sebastian Munoz
+1400: Anirban Lahiri
+1600: Justin Thomas
+2000: Shane Lowry
+2500: Tommy Fleetwood
+2800: Doug Ghim
+3300: Francesco Molinari
+4000: Erik van Rooyen
+5000: Corey Conners, Louis Oosthuizen, Tyrrell Hatton
+6000: Joel Dahmen, Kevin Kisner
+6600: Joaquin Niemann, Keith Mitchell, Sergio Garcia, Will Zalatoris
+7000: Patton Kizzire, Russell Henley
+8000: Abraham Ancer, Jon Rahm, Taylor Pendrith
+10000: Kevin Streelman, Patrick Reed, Viktor Hovland
+12500: Doc Redman, Russell Knox
+15000: Brendan Steele
+20000: Ian Poulter
Round 3/4 Plays:
Viktor Hovland +12000 to win at FanDuel (0.28 units):
Enough with the romance. I am not buying the top of the leaderboard heading into the final day of play as no one in the field has yet to complete their third rounds. With so much golf to be played, movement on the leaderboard is inevitable and the names at the top, while fantastic stories, do not scare me off.
Projecting the third round lead to be 9-under, the number Lahiri currently sits on, it is just a matter of selecting a capable player to make up a couple strokes early tomorrow morning after the restart. Much easier said than done, Hovland has the make-up and prior history to chase down the leaders.
Winning the Hero World Challenge and Dubai Desert Classic from behind, this would be Hovland’s greatest comeback yet as he is seven adrift. Only five-strokes back of the championship flight of Burns and Casey who sit at 7-under, this is as much as a wager on Hovland as it is on the leaders retreating.
Still needing to strike his unlikely birdie putt on the par-3 third, Hovland has three reasonable birdie opportunities ahead of him on Nos. 4, 6, and 9. If able to snag par-breakers on two of three, it is in the realm of possibilities Hovland is within arm’s reach before the final round begins.
Striking the ball as well as he has all season, the 24-year-old will need to be spotless on the greens tomorrow. With each of his three bogeys in Round 3 coming in the form of three-putts, the room for improvement is evident. Perhaps asking too much of Hovland, we will know early Monday morning whether or not this wager will have legs for the rest of the work day.
Outrights YTD: +77.03 units, +319.94%
Total YTD: +61.44 units, +91.72%
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