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Heading into Sunday at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, one thing is clear. It’s anyone’s tournament to win. With 14 players within four-strokes of the lead, this week’s final round has an eerily similar feel to last week’s Travelers Championship. While I don’t envision another eight-hole playoff in our future, there is a decent chance extra golf may be required.
For a brief moment on Saturday, that appeared unlikely. Troy Merritt provided enough fireworks to fill your Fourth of July weekend with a single swing of the club. After turning in four-under 32, Merritt headed to the par-3 11th-hole. Striking a 5-iron from 219 yards, Merritt one-hopped his tee-shot into the hole for his first professional hole-in-one. Getting to 15-under for the tournament, the two-time PGA Tour winner briefly possessed a three-stroke lead.
However, a quick bogey on the par-4 12th dropped Merritt to 14-under. With six straight pars to finish his third round, that’s exactly where Merritt would end the day. That was much to the delight of many players within shouting distance as neither Merritt nor overnight leader Joaquin Niemann were able to push the lead out further.
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Despite turning in a round of 4-under 68, and remaining bogey-free for the week, Saturday felt like a struggle for Niemann. After opening his third round with a birdie on the very first hole of the day, he immediately regained the lead. Near misses on the greens were the story of his round, but still, Niemann battled through and posted one of the better scores of the afternoon.
It says a ton about the 22-year-old Chilean, being able to score like he did when he clearly didn’t have his best stuff. It was wildly impressive in my eyes and it’s very likely he goes on to capture his second PGA Tour title. Still, he remains the betting favorite at PointsBet Sportsbook for the third consecutive round and will play in the final group alongside Merritt tomorrow.
For the final round, we’ll stick with the strategy that led to some success in Round 3. Below, three players will be outlined, two of which are likely to be strong matchup options. The other has a legitimate chance to win tomorrow. Being a popular pre-tournament selection, and having been written up after Round 1, I’ll take the wait and see approach myself.
Everything will be updated on my Twitter account either later tonight or early tomorrow morning as PointsBet posts their head-to-head matchups. Have a fantastic Fourth of July that is hopefully filled with friends, family, and a winning ticket.
Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):
+200: Joaquin Niemann
+400: Troy Merritt
+600: Cameron Davis
+900: Hank Lebioda
+1600: Jason Kokrak
+2000: Kevin Kisner
+2500: Brandon Hagy
+2800: Chris Kirk
+3300: Tom Lewis
+4000: Sungjae Im, Pat Perez, Richy Werenski
+8000: Seamus Power
Round 4 Targets:
With no chance to win the tournament, Snedeker will be a player that we will look to in a head-to-head matchup. The Donald Ross savant hasn’t played like one this week, but he still has 18-holes to turn things around and finish on a high note. After a couple lackadaisical rounds on Thursday and Friday, Snedeker showed signs of improvement in Round 3.
Despite only carding a round of 1-under 71, I like what I saw from him. Tee-to-green, it was his best round of the week, primarily with his irons as he posted +0.71 Strokes Gained: Approach. The issue was Snedeker’s putter, which has hardly been the case throughout his career.
He was fourth-to-last for the day on the greens, losing more than two-strokes with the flat stick. I’m uncertain if Snedeker’s ball-striking will cooperate on Sunday, as it tends to come and go, but a bounce back round with his putter is definitely in the cards.
It was a very disappointing third round for Homa. Shooting himself out of the tournament with a round of 2-over 74, Homa is the only player inside the top-50 to have shot over par on Saturday. Yet, I like his chances to post a strong final round and right the ship. Known for his resiliency, I am comfortable going to Homa in a matchup situation despite his poor play in Round 3.
Before Saturday, Homa’s ball-striking was its usual, reliant self. He even got the putter going towards the end of his second round, but unfortunately both abandoned him once the weekend rolled around. I’ll chalk it up as an anomaly and hope his game returns for tomorrow’s final round.
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At +1600, Kokrak is just a touch longer than Harris English was heading into the final round of the Travelers Championship. English was +1400 and two-strokes behind the leaders, so Kokrak finds himself in a rather similar situation, albeit three-strokes back. With a pre-tournament and a live play already wagered on Kokrak, I’ve done my fair share of investing for the week, but if you haven’t, I reckon Kokrak is the main threat to those who occupy the top of the leaderboard.
Leading the field in SG: Tee-to-Green, Kokrak has done just about everything right. Except one major thing and that’s putting as he ranks 75th out of 77 players in SG: Putting. He’ll have a tall mountain to climb as last year’s champion Bryson DeChambeau ranked first in SG: Putting and the year before Nate Lashley ranked second in the same category.
Merritt and Niemann rank first and third in SG: Putting through three rounds, so Kokrak will have to do his best to buck this apparent trend. However, on Saturday he provided some hope as he finally gained strokes on the greens, something he was unable to do in the first two rounds. If he is able to build on this performance, and consistently knock in 10-footers like he has done all year, Kokrak could become the PGA Tour’s first three-time winner of the season.
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