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After a memorable Travelers Championship that inadvertently turned into a marathon match, the PGA Tour heads to Detroit, Michigan for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Taking place over the Fourth of July weekend, this tournament tends to be an afterthought when sifting through the golf calendar. It’s especially difficult considering the Irish Open with the likes of Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry will be occurring across the pond on the European Tour.
The same could be said next week as well with the John Deere Classic and the Scottish Open, but we’ll leave that conversation for later. The task at hand remains the Rocket Mortgage Classic and it should provide for another intriguing tournament as it marks the one-year anniversary of the new and improved Bryson DeChambeau breaking through and validating his physical change.
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While it was great to watch unfold and all the props in the world to DeChambeau, his victory may have muddied the statistical waters a bit. As some have noted, some of his drives, yes, his drives registered in the Strokes Gained: Approach category. Because of this, it’s a bit uncertain what we can take from his path to victory.
However, he and 2019’s winner Nate Lashley do possess two similar statistics that led them to their Rocket Mortgage Classic titles. They both led the field in par-4 scoring for the week and also ranked first and second in SG: Putting. When it is simplified to those two categories, names like DeChambeau, Patrick Reed, and Jason Kokrak are ones that immediately come to mind. While those three are likely to contend over the weekend, we should go a bit more in-depth for our first-round leader purposes.
Being a Donald Ross design and playing to nearly 7,400 yards, this par-72 does provide an opportunity for longshots to contend, especially in the first-round leader market. In addition to the two statistics we discussed, our selections will need to take advantage of the par-5’s as pars simply won’t get the job done in Round 1. That combined with your standard ball-striking metrics are the bones of our operation for Thursday.
The Greater Detroit area has been quite wet over the last couple of weeks. Flooding and heavy rains have taken place making Detroit Golf Club all the more accessible. Round 1 scores will be low as ideal scoring conditions are likely to present themselves as the forecast currently predicts.
The oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook have priced the first-round leader market ahead of the Rocket Mortgage Classic. To no one’s surprise, DeChambeau sits atop the oddsboard at +2000. En route to his victory here last season, DeChambeau fell one-stroke shy of being the first-round leader behind three other golfers.
Odds to Lead After the First-Round (Odds via PointsBet):
+2000: Bryson DeChambeau
+2500: Patrick Reed
+2800: Hideki Matsuyama, Webb Simpson
+3300: Jason Kokrak, Sungjae Im, Will Zalatoris
+4000: Bubba Watson, Cameron Tringale, Charley Hoffman, Emiliano Grillo, Jason Day, Joaquin Niemann, Kevin Kisner, Matthew Wolff, Rickie Fowler, Si Woo Kim
+5000: Garrick Higgo, Gary Woodland, Keegan Bradley, Kyle Stanley, Max Homa
To Lead After the First-Round (Odds via PointsBet):
Emiliano Grillo +4000:
I have been wanting to hop on the Grillo for first-round leader bandwagon for quite some time now. While the odds are a bit lower than I would like, I still believe he is a viable Thursday play for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He’s a much more boom-or-bust option than other players I typically select, but having not hit one of these since the PGA Championship, maybe that’s exactly what we need.
Coming off two missed cuts in a row, Grillo’s chipping and putting has been more than detrimental to his game. However, the irons are still there, and while they may have cooled off a bit at the Travelers Championship, I see a return to peak Grillo coming this week. As of late, he’s been gaining six to seven strokes on approach in those tournaments that he sees the weekend.
Some weeks a decent portion of that has come in the first-round and some weeks it hasn’t. But like I said, Grillo could be a player that shoots 6-over or 6-under on Thursday. I’m hoping it’s the latter as it was here last season that he opened with a 6-under 66 to fall one-stroke shy of capturing the first-round lead.
Kyle Stanley +5000:
Stanley is going to grab a piece of the first-round lead sooner or later and I don’t want to be left on the outside looking in. I have a massive fear of missing out as I believe this could finally be the week for the ball-striking maestro. He’s coming off another fantastic week with his irons, posting +6.8 SG: Approach at the Travelers Championship.
That should travel to Detroit as his tee-to-green game has been some of the best on Tour over the last month or so. The only thing holding him back is his chipping and putting, which is the typical story when it comes to Stanley, and most players I wager on.
With Stanley, we may have to pray that he hits 18 out of 18 greens in regulation on Thursday. It’s not completely out of the realm of possibilities given his recent form, but it’s still a big ask. If that unlikely scenario does indeed unfold, Stanley has shown the capability to take advantage of scorable par-4’s and par-5’s which only adds to his cause.
Brendon Todd +6600:
I really liked what I saw out of Todd last week at the Travelers Championship. It’s not often that the former Georgia Bulldog loses strokes on the greens and I don’t expect him to make a habit of it this week at Detroit Golf Club. While the putter is due to bounce back, the ball-striking should hold steady.
Last week marked Todd’s best start in said department in exactly a year. While it could just be the way TPC River Highlands fits his eye, I’m willing to wager that he may have actually found something in his swing. For the week, Todd posted +4.0 SG: Approach, with 1.2 of those strokes coming in Round 1 alone. He posted another +2.5 SG: Approach in Round 3, before he fell a bit off the pace on Sunday.
He opened last year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic with a 4-under 68, three-strokes off the first-round lead and arrives in an eerily similar spot as a year ago. If Todd is able to catch lightning in a bottle on the greens in Round 1, which he has been prone to do, he could ride the wave of momentum from Cromwell right into being the first-round leader in Detroit.
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Doc Redman +6600:
With it only being the third year that the PGA Tour has stopped at Detroit Golf Club, the course history isn’t as extensive as we would like. However, one man arguably rises above the rest, and that is Redman. The former U.S. Amateur champion first bursted on the professional scene here in 2019 when he finished runner-up to Lashley and should go well this week.
Redman has found more than his fair of form as of late. A runner-up at the Palmetto Championship was on the heels of a top-10 finish at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He now arrives to a place where the vibes are immaculate. In addition to his strong finishes in Detroit, Redman also possesses a top-3 finish at Sedgefield Country Club, further illustrating his comfort level on Donald Ross designs.
With the irons and putting intact, his first-round chances will come down to his ability to find the short grass off-the-tee. While he’s been poor in the area from a full-tournament perspective, losing strokes to field in four consecutive starts, his Round 1 statistics paint a different picture. He’s gained strokes off-the-tee in four of his last seven Thursday rounds, and if that’s the case this Thursday, he should find himself atop the leaderboard just like last year when he opened with a 7-under 65.
Pat Perez +8000:
The summer of resurgence may have made its way into Perez’s game. Winless since 2017, he has been enjoying quite the streak of iron-play as of late. While they cooled off last week at the Travelers Championship, eventually missing the cut, I believe Detroit Golf Club could be the perfect bounce back spot for Perez.
The second round was Perez’s undoing last week, so for our first-round purposes, that plays right into our hands. Before TPC River Highlands, Perez had gained strokes on approach in five consecutive starts. With no finish worse than a tie for 45th during that stretch, Perez’s ability to start fast has played a vital role in his consistent weekend appearances.
Having gained strokes ball-striking in six consecutive first-rounds, Perez is just a hot putting round away from leading on Thursday. He’s been a bit inconsistent on the greens, but when looking to last year’s performance here, he clearly has a comfort level on these putting surfaces as he posted +5.3 SG: Putting for the week.
Joel Dahmen +8000:
Dahmen was someone that I was keeping my eye on coming into the week as I believe he could make a big splash in his debut appearance at Detroit Golf Club. However, those of you who are keen to social media may have comes across his Twitter account and subsequently his ongoing war with not only Max Homa, but now Southwest Airlines.
With his luggage unaccounted for, golf clubs in no man’s land, and wallet depleted (he was only refunded $8.80 for his $625 flight), the last thing on Dahmen’s mind is his actual golf game. And that’s why I actually kind of like him on Thursday as odd as it sounds. He’s one to get in his own head and psyche himself in or out of a tournament, and with next to zero expectations for the week, it may do him wonders.
His actual physical game has been quite solid as well, posting +5.5 SG: Approach and +4.1 SG: Approach in two of his last three starts. While the putting is a concern, he’s shown the propensity to be capable on the greens in the first-round. He gained nearly four-strokes putting at the Memorial and two-strokes at the PGA Championship. With a ceiling that high, I’ll take my chances that he’ll do something similar this Thursday.
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