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It didn’t look pretty at times, but Talor Gooch extended his lead heading into the final round of the RSM Classic. Hitting only six fairways on Saturday, low hooks off-the-tee plagued the 30-year-old at various points in his third round. Able to overcome the wayward shots – a potential tendency to look at tomorrow as a barometer of where his nerves are – Gooch turned in a round of 3-under 67 and leads Seamus Power and Sebastian Munoz by a three-stroke margin.
As it was not all too long-ago Gooch played in the final group in the final round of a tournament. Second to Viktor Hovland at the 54-hole mark at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, Gooch struggled on Sunday in Mexico. Carding a round of 3-over 74, perhaps the switch from “hunter” to “hunted” will aid the former Oklahoma State Cowboy in his quest for his first victory on the PGA Tour.
Stellar on and around-the-green in his two rounds on the Seaside Course – having gained nearly seven combined strokes in the short-game department – tomorrow’s calmer conditions may put more of an emphasis on scoring. If able to find a few more fairways and continue his strong iron-play, Gooch will be a difficult man for the field to track down. Indicated by by our friends at PointsBet Sportsbook, Gooch has officially become the odds-on favorite at -120.
On our end, moving day was once again a bit of a letdown with Taylor Moore struggling to stay in touch and now sitting at 10-under. Trailing by six-strokes, the 28-year-old will need to channel his inner Tommy Gainey in order to come through for us. More recently, Kevin Kisner proved a Sunday run was more than possible at Sea Island. Carding a final round 7-under 63 last year, Kisner was able to force a playoff with Robert Streb, eventually coming up just short.
While Russell Knox slowed up, we were lucky Matt Kuchar finished fast. Playing his final four holes in 3-under, the former Sea Island native gave us something to cheer about in the third round.
For the final round, Gooch at -120 seems to be the only bet to make in the outright market. Unwilling to go down the path of backing a potential first-time winner attempting to convert a 54-hole lead, we will hold out hope for Moore and instead look down a different avenue.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):
-120: Talor Gooch
+600: Seamus Power
+700: Sebastian Munoz
+1200: Tom Hoge
+1800: Mackenzie Hughes
+2000: Luke List, Webb Simpson
+2800: Scott Stallings
+5000: Cameron Smith, Taylor Moore
+6600: John Huh
+8000: David Skinns
+10000: Jhonattan Vegas
Round 4 Plays:
J.J. Spaun (+210) over Max McGreevy and Mito Pereira
The Chilean sensation is getting plenty of respect in this three-ball, but a bit too much for my liking as Spaun has been playing excellent this swing season. Making five, now six, consecutive cuts to end 2021, the 31-year-old has found his touch on the greens, a major struggle of his during the summer.
Ranking ninth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in his two rounds on the Seaside Course, the American has yet to spike on the greens this week, but may have suggested tomorrow could be the day he finally does. Posting +0.24 SG: Putting in his round of 1-under 69, Spaun has an opportunity to ride this little momentum on the greens into a big Sunday.
As Pereira and McGreevy have ridden their putters to their current positioning on the leaderboard. Sitting at 8-under alongside Spaun, the duo’s tee-to-green game is lacking a bit of consistency. Pereira’s ball-striking has fallen a touch since the dog days of summer and McGreevy’s lack of accuracy off-the-tee – especially on the Seaside Course – should give way to Spaun.
Keith Mitchell (+260) over Justin Rose and Russell Henley
I am either developing a crush or a serious issue when it comes to Mitchell. Continuing to place wagers on the former Georgia Bulldog, I believe the less intense winds forecasted for the final round will be to his liking. Strong off-the-tee and enjoying a nice week on the greens, the 29-year-old’s irons fell short in Round 3.
Yet as a whole he has connected on 42-of-54 greens in regulation and is not as far off as it may seem. Having posted rounds of 67-70 on turbulent days on the Seaside Course, Mitchell should be capable of something in the mid-60’s tomorrow.
Henley has stalled a bit on the Seaside Course after opening with an 8-under 64 on the Plantation Course. Losing strokes to the field off-the-tee and on approach, Henley’s short-game has actually kept him afloat. Not typically the case, the 32-year-old could find trouble in the final round if this trend continues.
There is no nitpicking to be done with Rose as the Englishman has looked rather well-balanced up to this point. Just a bit outside my comfort zone when it comes to his price in this three-ball, Mitchell’s number was the deciding factor when choosing between the two.
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