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That was fun. Birdies, birdies, and some more birdies filled the scorecards on Saturday as three players signed for rounds of 11-under or better on the same day for the first time in PGA Tour history. First, it was Justin Thomas (-17) who entered the day 12-strokes off the lead.
Putting together a round of 12-under 61, the world No. 8 carded two eagles and eight birdies in his third round to set the new course record at Kapalua. Then it was Matt Jones (-20) who turned in 3-under 33 and appeared destined for mediocracy in his return to the Tournament of Champions. However, a fast finish which featured two eagles and four birdies in his final seven holes saw the Australian catapult himself inside the top-5 courtesy of an 11-under 62.
That would be a memorable day for golf fans as is, but it was only the appetizer to the main dish that was Jon Rahm and Cameron Smith. Playing in the final pairing together, both players found themselves at even-par through their first four holes. A sliver of hope remained for the chasing pack until the two all but slammed the door shut over the next 14 holes.
Playing the next stretch in 9-under, the Australian reached 26-under a number many projected to be the winning score when the week began. Trading blows with the Spaniard; Smith left his hands down one too many times and slowly but surely saw his three-stroke lead evaporate as Rahm became overbearing.
Putt after putt dropped for the world No. 1 as he rattled off five consecutive birdies from Nos. 7 to 11. Applying just the right amount of pressure, Rahm would finish the round in a flurry by playing his final five holes in 6-under.
12-under and a share of the new course record was the end result. 12-under with a lost ball off-the-tee on No. 4. 12-under with four misses from inside of 11-feet. All of this to tie Smith at 26-under as the duo now heads into the final round five-strokes clear of their nearest competitor, Daniel Berger (-21).
Lost in all of this was Stewart Cink beating Xander Schauffele in their head-to-head matchup. Coming through for us at a nice price of +225, we will once again look in this direction as we go into the final round with a Smith ticket in our back pocket.
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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet Sportsbook):
-176: Jon Rahm
+165: Cameron Smith
+5000: Daniel Berger
+10000: Patrick Cantlay, Sungjae Im
+25000: Matt Jones
+75000: Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Marc Leishman
Round 4 Plays (Odds Via PointsBet):
Tony Finau +110 over Brooks Koepka (1.0 unit):
Outside of Round 1, the ball-striking has looked sharp for Finau who enters Sunday with rounds of 70-69-69 under his belt. Sixth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in Round 2 and posting positive ball-striking figures in Round 3, the putter has been a major disappointment thus far.
Losing nearly 3.50 strokes on the greens to this point, the 32-year-old finds himself ranked 36th in SG: Putting. While I am not expecting him to turn into Ben Crenshaw overnight, I am reminded of my pre-tournament sentiment on him, and believe a small bounce back with the flat stick could lead to a major improvement in scoring on Sunday.
As opposed to Koepka who may be the most difficult golfer to get a read on. Take away a nine-hole stretch on Friday, which saw him tie for the lead, and it has been a rather lackadaisical effort for the four-time major champion. Currently outside the top-20 in SG: Off-the-Tee, SG: Approach, and SG: Putting, if not for some magic around-the-green, his name could be even farther down the leaderboard.
With some uncertainness around which Koepka we may get on Sunday, I will instead look for Finau to finish strong and take care of his playing competitor in the process.
YTD: 1-1 (+0.95 units)
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