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The PGA Tour heads to Las Vegas this week for the Shriners Children’s Open. TPC Summerlin will play host as the Bobby Weed design requires players to possess a strong tee-to-green presence in the Sin City.
When looking at past winners such as Martin Laird, Bryson DeChambeau, and Patrick Cantlay, a recipe for success can be concocted. Each performing well from tee-to-green, the trio have all enjoyed numerous, fruitful trips to Las Vegas.
Diving a bit deeper, strong iron-play, a competent week on the greens, and par-5 scoring appear to be underlying reasons for their triumphs. With this said, that doesn’t mean there aren’t other ways through which to find a positive outcome in Las Vegas.
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As the outlier of those who have fond memories of TPC Summerlin is Kevin Na. A two-time winner of this event, Na’s most recent victory came in 2019 when he posted +14.2 Strokes Gained: Putting. Losing strokes to the field off-the-tee and around-the-green, there is a path – albeit a narrow one – for those who can only find lightning in a bottle on the greens.
The oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook have priced numerous head-to-head matchups ahead of the Shriners Children’s Open. Enjoying a stress-free weekend at the Sanderson Farms Championship, we will look to keep this train moving into the desert.
Head-to-Head Matchups (Odds Via PointsBet):
Patrick Reed (-120) over Jason Kokrak
It is always a tall ask to wager against a Las Vegas resident in Las Vegas, but that is exactly what we will be doing. While Kokrak broke through in a big way last season down the road at Shadow Creek – his home golf club – he has not fared as well when playing at TPC Summerlin.
Making his 10th appearance in the Shriners Children’s Open this week, the two-time winner last season has registered a top-20 finish only once. Coupled with four missed cuts and three finishes outside the top-60 and for one reason or another, the 36-year-old has been unable to figure out the nuances of TPC Summerlin.
Many will shrug off his past struggles, mostly because they have to do with his putter and he is much improved in that department, but the lack of quality over a prolonged period of time concerns me. When Kokrak tends to play a course poorly, it tends to stay that way, and is something I expect to continue this week at the Shriners.
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Reed on the other hand is making only his third start at TPC Summerlin and his first since withdrawing during the 2013 edition of the tournament. There were plenty of question marks swirling around Reed to end last season pertaining to the Ryder Cup, his form, and major health concerns.
While it was a less than ideal finish to his season, a course such as TPC Summerlin should allow Reed to recapture his mid-summer form. Specifically, from a three-week stretch in June when the 31-year-old posted quality outings at the Memorial, U.S. Open, and the Travelers.
Posting +11.5 SG: Tee-to-Green at Muirfield Village during this period, I can’t help but look at Cantlay and DeChambeau and their mutual success at both courses. I could see this as a potential path for Reed at TPC Summerlin, a course somewhat similar to Muirfield Village with more forgiveness off-the-tee. With his weakness neutralized in a sense, I expect Reed to enjoy a strong start to his 2021-2022 campaign.
Adam Scott (-110) over Erik van Rooyen
I love Scott every which way this week at the Shriners Children’s Open. The former UNLV Runnin’ Rebel put together a strong back-half of his season and nearly made his way into the winner’s circle not once, but twice.
After handing the Wyndham Championship to Kevin Kisner, Scott made his way to The Northern Trust where an inevitable letdown was expected. Taking a couple weeks off, the Australian ventured to Wentworth for the BMW PGA Championship. Finishing in a tie for 14th, Scott began the final round in the same position as eventual winner Billy Horschel before falling off the pace.
Finding his touch on the greens down the stretch, the rest of Scott’s game should hold up to the TPC Summerlin examination. Gaining strokes tee-to-green in six of his last eight starts, if Scott posts +4.9 SG: Putting as he did in his lone Shriners Children’s Open appearance in 2019, he should be in the mix come Sunday.
Making his debut at TPC Summerlin this week is van Rooyen. Putting together a memorable playoff run with a top-10 finish at The Northern Trust and a top-5 finish at the BMW Championship, the South African disappointed at East Lake.
While the backend of the season was very strong, boasting a victory at the Barracuda Championship, I am unsure of his prospects to begin the new campaign. Missing the cut in six of his last 13 starts, there is inherent volatility in van Rooyen’s game. Riding a hot putter to strong finishes, if the flat stick comes back down to earth – which it should eventually – van Rooyen may get off on the wrong foot.
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