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The first full field event of 2022 is set to take place this week at Waialae Country Club as 144 players are slated to tee it up in the Sony Open. Far different from last week’s 38 player skills competition, the relocation from Maui to Honolulu should bring more difficult conditions and a more crowded leaderboard.
As this will be the 57th playing of the Sony Open – all of which have occurred on the Seth Raynor design – putting it in the history books just below the likes of The Masters and Charles Schwab for longest tenured host of a single tournament. A tight, tree-lined par-70, firm and fast conditions are typically present, but with record rainfall in the Aloha State the past couple of months those are likely to be gone with the wind.
Which is the main defense as players will have their way with Waialae CC if conditions mirror that of last week at the Tournament of Champions. Yet for our first-round prospects, there does not appear to be a clear edge when discussing AM or PM tee times.
With many of my own personal anemometers on the grounds, I am getting conflicting reports between a steady 10 mph wind throughout the day or a gradual increase to 20 mph as the day progress. As such we will throw the majority of our selections in the morning hours, but also have a couple in the afternoon if the forecast is incorrect – something which surely never happens.
Our friends at PointsBet Sportsbook have last week’s winner and the 2020 Sony Open Champion, Cameron Smith, leading the first-round market at +2200. The first-round leader at the Plantation Course, the Australian is always a threat to go low on Thursday and will be a difficult player to skirt past.
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Odds to Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
+2200: Cameron Smith
+2800: Webb Simpson
+3300: Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Marc Leishman
+4000: Abraham Ancer, Billy Horschel, Charles Howell III, Corey Conners, Harris English, Jason Kokrak, Kevin Kisner, Kevin Na, Russell Henley, Talor Gooch
+5000: Cam Davis, Matt Jones, Maverick McNealy, Seamus Power
First Round Leader Selections:
Alex Smalley +10000 (0.20 units)
Already looking to Smalley in the outright market, I do not want to miss out on the possibility of a fast start. Playing in his first Sony Open this week, the 25-year-old is making a name for himself rather quickly. Collecting two top-20 finishes this fall at the Bermuda Championship and the HPE Houston Open, a course such as Waialae CC should be right up his alley.
Great from tee-to-green, Smalley has made his hay on par-4s early in his career. As he is exquisite with his irons from 125-175 yards, allowing him to see plenty of birdie opportunities over the course of 18 holes.
While the putter has disappointed in his off weeks, his single round performances provide plenty of spike potential. Having had results of +1.7, +3.1, +2.3, and +2.3 Strokes Gained: Putting on Bermuda grass since late last summer, a showing in this neighborhood has the ability to propel him to the top of the leaderboard.
Zach Johnson +10000 (0.20 units)
The winner in 2009, Johnson is readying for his 17th appearance in the Sony Open, trailing only a handful of players in terms of experience. Despite being in the twilight of his career, the last time we saw the two-time major champion, he was in the midst of a strong showing at the RSM Classic. Eventually finishing in a tie for 16th, Johnson ranked inside the top-15 in SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Off-the-Tee, and SG: Approach.
The catalyst was his Thursday performance in which Johnson carded a 9-under 61 and was on the precipice of joining the illustrious 59 club before the putter let him down late. He will likely need something in the same neighborhood in order to come through for us this week.
But if there is a course on which he can replicate such a performance, it is Waialae CC. Possessing a career scoring average of 68.34, the 45-year-old has collected four top-15 finishes since 2014. If able to find fairways consistently on Thursday, he should threaten the lead late as he is one of our two selections to tee off in the afternoon.
Harry Higgs +11000 (0.18 units)*
The RSM Classic may have been a high for Johnson, but it was most certainly a low for Higgs. Losing nearly five-strokes on approach on the Seaside Course at Sea Island, the former SMU Mustang missed the cut and was sent into the offseason with a sour taste in his mouth. Mixing this sour with some vodka in the Tito’s Shootout, we are now getting our first look at Higgs in real competition in 2022.
In what will be his third straight appearance in the Sony Open, the 30-year-old has collected results of T-57 and T-32. Making a slight improvement his second time around, Higgs bookended his 2021 Sony Open with rounds of 5-under 65.
Clearly comfortable at Waialae CC, Higgs’ putter gives him a chance to come through for us regardless of where his ball-striking is at. If it chooses to cooperate, as it did for some portions of the swing season, he has enough firepower to card a round in the low 60s.
Kramer Hickok +12500 (0.16 units)
Hickok has an odd way of randomly popping up on the leaderboard every now and then as he did at the Travelers Championship and more recently at the HPE Houston Open. Finishing inside the top-5 at Memorial Park, the Texan’s biggest strength, his accuracy off-the-tee, was put on full display and could translate to success this week.
Finding the top-20 in last year’s Sony Open, Hickok put together rounds of 67-68-65-65. Fast forward one year later and his iron-play has improved drastically, specifically from 150-175 yards. This should hold the keys to shaving a few strokes off those rounds of 65 as Hickok thrives on par-4s and Bermuda grass putting surfaces.
He will need to be perfect on the two par-5s and not let those opportunities fall by the wayside, but if able to, the rest of his game is well positioned for a strong opening round.
Michael Thompson +13000 (0.15 units)*
I have patiently been waiting for this moment to target Thompson in the first round as the 36-year-old sneakily put together a consistent swing season. A perfect 5-for-5 on weekend appearances in the fall, Thompson’s best effort came at the World Wide Technology Championship when he finished in a tie for 15th.
Consistently ranking near the top in driving accuracy, Waialae CC possesses plenty of similarities to El Camaleon Golf Course. While he has fallen flat in his 10 previous Sony Open appearances, collecting only one top-10 result, his putter alone makes him worthy of consideration.
Posting +4.8, +8.8, and +5.6 SG: Putting in three of his starts in Honolulu, his play on the greens gives him all the upside in the world for a single round. His off-the-tee numbers are skewed due to his lack of distance and if able to get his irons sorted out for a round, he has more than a chance on Thursday.
Peter Malnati +18000 (0.11 units)*
Malnati opened with an 8-under 62 to lead after Round 1 last season, so why can’t he do it again? Playing eight times in the swing season, Malnati was unable to take advantage of his iron-play as it was consistently the best area of his game in the fall.
Often losing strokes on the greens – a rarity of sorts for a putter of his caliber – I am expecting a massive bounce back in the early parts of 2022 with the putter in hand. Waialae CC is the perfect launch point for this revival as Malnati has posted +6.0, +2.9, +2.2, +4.5, and +5.5 SG: Putting in his last five Sony Open appearances.
Clearly comfortable on the Bermuda grass of Honolulu, if able to marry his iron-play from the fall to his historical putting figures in Hawaii, a low round should be in his near future.
*Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook
First-Round Leaders YTD: -0.94 units, -100.00%
Total YTD: +32.16 units, 418.74%
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