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Not much changed at the TOUR Championship on Thursday as Patrick Cantlay, who began the day with a two-stroke lead, ended the day with a two-stroke lead. Carding a first-round 3-under 67, Cantlay carried the momentum from his dramatic playoff victory in Baltimore all the way to Atlanta.
Starting the tournament at 10-under, Cantlay stood at that very number through his first five holes. After trading a chip-in birdie for a bogey, the three-time winner on the PGA Tour this season rattled off three birdies over his next 13 holes. Yet his first-round success wasn’t down the same avenue he took at the BMW Championship.
On the back of a historic putting performance at Caves Valley, Cantlay regressed on the greens at East Lake Golf Club. Losing –1.40 strokes on the greens and ranking 23rd in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting, the former UCLA Bruin had to rely on his steady tee-to-green play. Strong iron-play and sharpness from around-the-green led the way as Cantlay ranked fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green on Thursday.
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While the lead remains two, Cantlay’s closest pursuer has changed as world No. 1, Jon Rahm inched his way up the leaderboard on Thursday. Thanks to a first-round of 5-under 65, Rahm climbed within two-strokes of Cantlay as he began the week four adrift. In what shouldn’t be a surprise to many, Rahm has opened each playoff event on a high note with rounds of 63-64-65.
A balanced attack, the Spaniard gained strokes in every statistical category today. Outside of a three-hole stretch to end his front-half, Rahm was able to navigate East Lake in a relatively stress-free manner. Carding six birdies against two bogeys, the pre-tournament favorite remains the favorite heading into Round 2 of the TOUR Championship.
Despite trailing by two-strokes, Rahm’s pre-tournament odds have been cut in half. At +180 at PointsBet Sportsbook, he and Cantlay have separated themselves from the field as the FedEx No. 1 is not far behind at +225. With 54-holes to go, there is plenty of golf left as those chasing attempt to close the gap.
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Updated Odds to Win FedEx Cup (Odds Via PointsBet):
+180: Jon Rahm
+225: Patrick Cantlay
+1000: Bryson DeChambeau
+1600: Justin Thomas
+2000: Viktor Hovland
+2200: Harris English
+3000: Cameron Smith, Dustin Johnson
+3500: Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau
+4000: Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth
+5000: Abraham Ancer
+5500: Louis Oosthuizen, Xander Schauffele
+8000: Kevin Na
Round 2 Plays (Odds Via PointsBet):
Harris English (+2200 to win FedEx Cup):
At 8-under, English is five-strokes behind Cantlay as he was able to make up one-stroke on the tournament leader in the first-round. While many will look to his finish and his skewed approach numbers due to his hole-in-one, I still believe the former Georgia Bulldog has the makeup to continue to track down the man atop the leaderboard.
The iron-shot on the par-3 15th hole obviously adds to +4.27 SG: Approach, which led the field on Thursday. However, before going four-under in a three-hole stretch, English wasn’t playing all too terrible despite what the data may suggest. Missing birdie opportunity after birdie opportunity, English was treading water at even-par for the day.
Ranking 27th in the field in SG: Putting, English only got the better of Hideki Matsuyama, Daniel Berger, and Joaquin Niemann on the greens, all of whom shot over-par in Round 1. Despite this, the Georgia Bulldog was able to get out of Thursday unscathed, and in fact bettered his position heading into Friday. With some pre-tournament investment already in Rahm, I’ll add to the arsenal with English with the hopes that the putter comes around. Depending on the number, I will also look to English in a Round 2 matchup versus DeChambeau once it is posted.
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