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Another week, another fog delay. Play in Cromwell, Connecticut got underway a bit behind schedule on Thursday, but once competition began, the birdies started to fall. Scoring conditions were ideal at TPC River Highlands as players took full advantage of the lack of wind and temperatures in the mid-70’s.
While Kramer Hickok, Talor Gooch, and others crowd the top of the leaderboard, the main story of the morning wave was the play of Bryson DeChambeau. Coming off a back-nine collapse at the U.S. Open last week at Torrey Pines, DeChambeau looked disgruntled and agitated from the very start.
Playing alongside Stewart Cink and Patrick Reed, DeChambeau’s ball-striking lagged behind. Utilizing the bold tactic of army golf, he struggled mightily throughout his first-round. Despite not looking sharp, DeChambeau turned in a round of 1-under 69, tying Reed and only doing one worse than Cink. He sits six-strokes behind the leaders and is just one solid round away from being right back in this tournament.
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The birdies continued to fly in the afternoon, but yet again, the star players struggled. This time it was the group of Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, and Tony Finau. Things started to go south almost immediately as Koepka three-putted for bogey on the very first hole. However, Koepka was able to get things back on track, carding a round of 1-under 69 and tying his little brother Chase Koepka.
While Koepka was able to battle back to red figures, the other two weren’t so lucky. Johnson had a steep mountain to climb as on the 3rd hole, he found trouble with his approach shot leading to a double-bogey. He would later flair a tee shot into the water on the par-5 13th as Johnson’s recent struggles appear to have continued into this week.
I would be remiss to not mention Johnson being able to make something out of nothing. Despite how bad it looked at times, birdies on 17 and 18 got Johnson back to even-par for the tournament and only seven-strokes behind the leaders. The same can’t be said for Finau as he carded a round of 6-over 76 beating only four other players on the day.
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Like the morning, the afternoon wasn’t all that bad. In fact, Satoshi Kodaira stole the show in the P.M. hours. The 2018 RBC Heritage champion began his day on the back-nine and turned in 4-under 31. After tacking on another birdie on the 1st hole, Kodaira holed out from the middle of the fairway for an eagle 2 on the par-4 2nd. Standing at 7-under through 12 holes, that is where Kodaira would end his day as he played his final six-holes in even-par and sits atop of the leaderboard alongside Hickok.
Despite leading, the oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook do not have Kodaira or Hickok as the favorite. That honor goes to Bubba Watson, who is the all-time earnings leader at the Travelers Championship and sits only three-strokes back.
Updated Odds to Win (Via PointsBet):
+1200: Bubba Watson
+1400: Patrick Cantlay
+1600: Talor Gooch
+1800: Satoshi Kodaira
+2000: Bryson DeChambeau, Sam Burns
+2200: Brian Harman, Kevin Streelman
+2500: Brooks Koepka, Harris English, Kramer Hickok
+2800: Cameron Smith
+3000: Dustin Johnson
+3300: Joaquin Niemann, Maverick McNealy, Patrick Rodgers
+4000: Henrik Norlander, Patrick Reed, Russell Henley, Scottie Scheffler
+5000: Brice Garnett, Zach Johnson
Round 2 Plays (Odds via PointsBet):
Max Homa (+12500 to win):
I was casually following most of Homa’s first-round and once it was completed, I knew he would be a player to target moving forward. While I am never one to add a player to the outright card before the cut, I believe Homa can be an exception. From a statistical standpoint, Homa is set up perfectly to make a deep run over the next 54-holes.
He struck the ball beautifully on Thursday, ranking inside the top-20 in both Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach. While the ball-striking was in tune, his short game was far from it, ranking outside the top half from around-the-green and nearly dead last on the greens. When diving a bit deeper into his putting, I’ve concluded that some of the short misses have real potential to be cleaned up moving forward.
For the round, Homa recorded three three-putts and another short miss from inside six feet. That right there is four-strokes alone as the Genesis Invitational winner sits at 1-under and six off the lead. He is paired with Kodaira tomorrow, so he’ll have a general idea of where he stands throughout the day, and should go well in Round 2. While I will be adding Homa to my card at +12500, I will also look to target him in his three-ball over Kodaira and Jason Dufner.
Bubba Watson (+153) over Paul Casey and Phil Mickelson
If any of you watched the late coverage of Round 1, then you saw the pain and discomfort that Casey was in. After making four birdies in a row and turning in 4-under, Casey then made four consecutive bogeys. He tacked on one more bogey on the 18th to shoot 1-over for the day and his health will be a big question mark heading into the second round.
That alone is enough for me to look elsewhere. It’s not that I don’t believe he can get his back in shape for tomorrow, but it’s just one less variable we can take out of the equation. The man with arguably the most variables in the typical day-to-day of a PGA Tour event is Mickelson. You have the calves, the coffee, the bombs, and the hellacious seeds.
While he did finish at 1-under on Thursday, Mickelson knocked in a number of lengthy putts that I just don’t see going in tomorrow. That should be enough for Watson to take care of this three-ball with relative ease. The three-time champion ranked inside the top-10 in SG: Tee-to-Green in the first-round and should continue to thrive early Friday morning.
Patrick Rodgers (+232) over Brian Harman and Russell Henley
Our strategy of targeting the heavy underdog who played the best in the first-round is being implemented yet again. The hefty price tag on this three-ball was more than enough to draw me in. While Harman and Henley didn’t necessarily do anything wrong on Thursday, carding rounds of 2-under and 3-under respectively, Rodgers was just too good for me to pass up on.
The former Stanford standout not only led the field in SG: Approach, but also SG: Tee-to-Green. If he is able to keep things rolling into tomorrow, Rodgers should in all likelihood improve on his score of 5-under. The reason being that Rodger ranked outside the top-100 in SG: Putting on Thursday, losing more than half a stroke on the greens. He has an uncanny ability to catch lightning in a bottle on the putting surfaces, so I’ll gladly wager on something like that unfolding tomorrow.
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