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The race for number three is on as Harris English and Bryson DeChambeau will fill out the last pairing in tomorrow’s final round. Having won the Sentry Tournament of Champions and the Travelers Championship, English has two wins in 2021. DeChambeau on the other hand boasts victories at the 2020 U.S. Open and the Arnold Palmer Invitational on his season resume.
Each looking for their third victory of the season, if one of them is able come through tomorrow, they’d be the first player on Tour to reach that number. With plenty to play for such as prize money, FedEx Cup points, and bragging rights, the main motivator tomorrow may very well be Whistling Straits in a month and a half’s time.
Two-strokes back, DeChambeau has already secured his spot on Team USA, sitting third in the rankings with the top-six automatically qualifying. English isn’t so lucky as he is ninth in the rankings. However, as Will Gray mentioned on Twitter, a win this week would propel English into the final automatic qualifying spot with only three weeks to go.
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Regardless of what happens tomorrow, I’d be shocked if Steve Stricker doesn’t select English if it does indeed come to that. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities that English remains with only two victories for the season after completion of play. Outside of DeChambeau, English will need to contend with Cameron Smith and Abraham Ancer as they are the other two players who sit below +2000 at PointsBet Sportsbook.
The Olympic fatigue factor that has affected so many, such as gold medalist, Xander Schauffele, appears to be no problem for the duo. After turning in rounds of 62 yesterday, Smith and Ancer both kept their foot on the gas at TPC Southwind. While Smith was able to card a round of 5-under 65, Ancer stumbled late, making bogeys on his final two holes, and falling to 14-under for the tournament.
Sitting four-strokes behind English, the Mexican is hardly out of the tournament as he looks to capture his first victory on the PGA Tour. Smith sits two-stroke closer at 16-under alongside DeChambeau as he goes for his second win of the season and his third in the last two years.
Yet as we mentioned in yesterdays’ article when we wrote up Ryan Palmer, I have a tough time envisioning someone not named Harris English winning. Two-clear of the nearest pursuers, it will be interesting to see how English handles the 54-hole lead. While he struggled on the back-nine at the Palmetto Championship, he thrived at the Travelers Championship, and hopefully that experience will come to his aid down the stretch tomorrow.
Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):
+150: Harris English
+250: Bryson DeChambeau
+400: Cameron Smith
+1400: Abraham Ancer
+2000: Scottie Scheffler
+4000: Ian Poulter
+6600: Dustin Johnson
+8000: Louis Oosthuizen
+10000: Will Zalatoris
Round 4 Plays (Odds Via PointsBet):
Daniel Berger (+650 to finish inside the top-five):
With four, maybe five players with legitimate shots at the title, we have unfortunately missed much of the value on their outright numbers. Having been aboard the English train the entire week, there’s no point in jumping off now, so we’ll hope and pray that he can get the job done and grab his third victory of the season.
As such, we will look for Berger to put together a strong final-round and sneak into the top-five by tournament’s end. A two-time winner at TPC Southwind, Berger leads the field this week in Strokes Gained: Approach, posting +6.45 through the first three rounds. At 10-under, the former Florida State Seminole sits in a tie for 11th and three-strokes outside of the top-five.
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Yet I have confidence that he’ll fire something in the mid-to-low 60’s tomorrow. With only four bogeys on the week, Berger has been able to avoid the costly mistakes as he did on Saturday, getting around TPC Southwind bogey-free.
While the mistakes haven’t stacked up, the par breakers haven’t either. Struggling on and around-the-greens, a strong short-game performance should hold the keys to the top-five kingdom. He has been making strides in that department over the last month or so, and I’m willing to wager they’ll come to fruition in tomorrow’s final round.
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