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WM Phoenix Open: Expect a Homa-Town Welcome in Round 3

Max Homa

Max Homa

Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports

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The man who slept on the lead, gave up the lead, and recaptured the lead will head into the weekend with...the lead. PGA Tour rookie and former standout at Pepperdine University, Sahith Theegala, sits at 12-under going into the second-half of the WM Phoenix Open.

Gaining entry into the field via a sponsor’s exemption, the 24-year-old is taking full advantage. Saying, “[I’m feeling] pretty great. I haven’t had time to let it set in and hopefully I don’t think too much about it because obviously what I’ve been doing has been working the first couple days, but, yeah, again, just thankful that I’m here and trying to make the most out of the opportunity. No expectations at all, honestly.”

Holding the 18-hole, 36-hole, and 54-hole lead at the Sanderson Farms Championship earlier this season, this is not Theegala’s first taste of contention on the PGA Tour. While prior experience often aids young golfers when in the heat of battle, nothing could possibly prepare Theegala for the task ahead of him this weekend.

While Brooks Koepka (-10) and Xander Schauffele (-10) are Theegala’s closest pursuers, they are hardly the only ones within arm’s reach. Reigning PGA Tour Player of the Year, Patrick Cantlay (-9), sits one-stroke adrift of his two Ryder Cup teammates. Then there are major champions Hideki Matsuyama (-6), Bubba Watson (-6), Justin Thomas (-5), Jon Rahm (-5), and Louis Oosthuizen (-5) circling the shallows waiting to pounce if/when Theegala lets his guard down.

With such a collection of players so heavily compacted towards the top of the leaderboard, it is no surprise to see the defending champion, Koepka, leading the way at PointsBet Sportsbook. An eight-time winner on the PGA Tour, it was here at TPC Scottsdale in 2015 where Koepka broke through for his maiden victory, footsteps Theegala would surely want to follow in.

As for us, finally, we got on the second-round board with Daniel Berger backing into a three-ball victory. With pre-tournament wagers on Max Homa (-8) and Talor Gooch (-8) and a few other players within six-strokes of second-place, we will once again attempt to improve our matchup record.

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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):

+360: Brooks Koepka

+475: Xander Schauffele

+500: Patrick Cantlay

+900: Sahith Theegala

+1800: Hideki Matsuyama

+2000: Jon Rahm, Talor Gooch

+2200: Max Homa

+2800: Justin Thomas

+3000: Bubba Watson

+3300: Abraham Ancer, Adam Hadwin, Tom Hoge

+5000: Alex Noren

+6000: Billy Horschel, K.H. Lee

+8000: Kevin Kisner, Louis Oosthuizen

+10000: Brian Harman, Carlos Ortiz, J.T. Poston

+12500: Chris Kirk, Jordan Spieth, Patton Kizzire

+15000: Adam Scott, Corey Conners, Keegan Bradley, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Scottie Scheffler

+20000: Austin Eckroat, Branden Grace, Brendon Todd, Martin Laird, Cameron Young


Round 3 Plays:

Max Homa -115 over Kevin Kisner at DraftKings (1.15 units):

Let’s keep a good thing going with Homa who has been spectacular the first two days. The only player in the field to hold the distinction of being mistake-free, the Scottsdale resident has looked right at home from the start.

Fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green, I expect the three-time winner on the PGA Tour to continue to ball-strike his way around TPC Scottsdale. Posting +3.63 SG: Off-the-Tee and +3.28 SG: Approach through two rounds, Homa was able to find his touch on the greens late on Friday, propelling him to the first page of the leaderboard.

A fantastic Par-5 scorer and comfortable with the challenge tomorrow will present – 250,000 of his closest friends are expected to be in attendance – Homa’s steady tee-to-green play will be tough for Kisner to handle. As the Georgia Bulldog simply does not possess the same firepower as the Cal Golden Bear.

Outside the top-35 in each tee-to-green metric, as expected, Kisner has gotten through the first two rounds relying solely on a cooperative putter. Posting +4.72 SG: Putting, just a slight regression with the flat stick combined with the current state of his tee-to-green game should spell trouble for the man often described in the same breath as a slot receiver.


Jordan Spieth -105 over Russell Henley at DraftKings (1.05 units):

If you have not heard by now, “Spieth Saturdays” have returned and I am willing to wager they are here to stay. A year removed from his memorable third-round 10-under 61, the three-time major winner appears to be back to his normal self.

A disappointing opening round filled with accurate drives and precise iron-play ended with a score of 1-under 70. As opposed to today where he was unable to find the face of the earth off-the-tee, hitting only 7-of-14 fairways, yet improved on his score, signing for a 2-under 69. A rollercoaster experience indeed.

Sitting at 3-under, the Texan, despite his struggles from the tee, ranks third in Greens in Regulation through 36-holes. Falling behind both on and around-the-green, Spieth’s short-game should come to his aid tomorrow.

As without his, Henley would have likely missed the cut. A typically reliable ball-striker, the man who fell short in Honolulu has only connected on 24-of-36 Greens in Regulation up to this point in the tournament. Ranking 60th in SG: Approach and fourth in SG: Around-the-Green, the 32-year-old has the potential to wilt in the desert heat in Round 3.

2/3-Balls YTD: -3.15 units, -14.57%

Total YTD: +44.95 units, +109.25%

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