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We’re back again for another installment of first-round leader selections as the adage “close but no cigar” continues to reign true. Last week at the Bermuda Championship, we were able to effectively judge the weather splits, but ineffectively select a Round 1 winner.
It appeared as if Danny Lee, Sean O’Hair, or journeyman Scott Gutschewski would come through as each were amongst the live-favorites during their rounds. Unfortunate for things to not fall our way (again), we continue to find our selections within arm’s reach, which is all you can really ask for given our strategy to target the bottom of the odds board.
This week, players will be tasked with dismantling El Camaleon Golf Course at Mayakoba. Previously known as the OHL Classic, the World Wide Technology Championship welcomes 132 players to Playa Del Carmen, Mexico.
While winds have wreaked havoc in the past, as of now, Thursday appears relatively calm with no advantage to the morning or afternoon. With a level playing field set, we can look to those players who are riding a bit of form into Mayakoba.
A par-71, the name of the game on this Greg Norman design is keeping the ball in the fairway. Whether with driver or less-than-driver, first-round prospects will be predicated on avoiding penalty areas and potential lost balls.
Combine accuracy off-the-tee with birdie-making metrics as the first-round lead has averaged out to 8-under over the last five years. In unison with your standard importance on approach play – specifically key wedge distances – we should have a nice angle into our Thursday selections at the World Wide Technology Championship.
Our friends at PointsBet Sportsbook have priced the first-round leader market ahead of Thursday’s play with tournament-favorite, Justin Thomas leading the way at +2200. Between Thomas, Viktor Hovland, and others, there is a bit of trepidation given their ability to shoot out of the gates in the first-round, but we march on regardless.
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Odds to Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
+2200: Justin Thomas
+2800: Viktor Hovland
+3000: Abraham Ancer
+3300: Aaron Wise, Billy Horschel, Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau
+4000: Brooks Koepka, Cameron Tringale, Patrick Reed, Shane Lowry, Talor Gooch, Tyrrell Hatton
+5000: Alex Noren, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Joaquin Niemann, Justin Rose, Keegan Bradley, Lucas Herbert, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Matthew Wolff, Maverick McNealy, Rickie Fowler, Russell Henley, Sergio Garcia, Will Zalatoris
To Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
Rory Sabbatini (+8000):
The South African turned Slovakian has made a stop in Mexico every year since 2011, missing the cut only twice this past decade. Holding a scoring average of 69.81 at El Camaleon, Sabbatini arrives this season as a boom-or-bust option in the first-round.
While he has missed five of his last seven cuts dating back to last season, when Sabbatini plays well, he tends to play very well. A T-10 finish at the Wyndham Championship and a T-3 finish at the Shriners Children’s Open should bode well for his first-round chances this week at Mayakoba.
Accurate off-the-tee, the 45-year-old avoids trouble with the best of them. Great on par-4’s in particular, if he can pick up a stroke or two on the rest of the holes, he should find himself with an opportunity given his last three Round 1 scores read 65-69-66.
James Hahn (+10000):
Three starts in a row we will be going to the well with Hahn as we continue to search for his first-round peak. While possible he bounces off his trend line, I don’t mind chancing him once again given El Camaleon, on paper, fits his game. While the results have yet to stack up – collecting finishes of MC, T-29, T-59 in his three appearances – the 40-year-old (as of today) has shown glimpses of what he is capable of at Mayakoba.
Opening the 2018 tournament with rounds of 66-67, Hahn stumbled over the weekend en route to his top-30 finish. The following year, he struggled to make the cut before carding a third round of 8-under 63, a score likely needed for Thursday. Arriving in form this season, such a performance is capable of taking place in the first-round.
Finishing in a tie for 15th at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, Hahn had all but locked up a top-10 placing before a costly double-bogey had other plans. Despite the late blunder, the two-time winner on the PGA Tour ranked 13th in driving accuracy and seventh in greens in regulation by tournament’s end. If able to convert a few more birdie looks compared to Japan, Hahn has a great opportunity to finally come through for us in Mexico.
Anirban Lahiri (+10000):
He got caught in the worst of the weather last week in Bermuda, so the missed cut and poor first-round aren’t much of a concern to me. Even less so considering Lahiri’s ability to bounce back after a shortened week has been well-documented in recent months. His T-5 finish at the Valero Texas Open and T-3 finish at the Barabsol Championship were both on the heels of missed cuts and one shouldn’t be surprised if something similar plays out this week.
We were on Lahiri at the Sanderson Farms Championship where he opened with a pedestrian 3-under 69. However, he stumbled out the gates there and battled to the end, playing his back-nine in 5-under. Eventually missing the cut, he then rebounded in his next start at the Shriners Children’s Open, opening with a 6-under 65.
Holding the fifth best scoring average in the field at El Camaleon (68.00), Lahiri has finishes of T-28, T-14, and T-10 to his credit. One of the most underrated drivers of the golf ball on the PGA Tour, if the Olympian is able to find his touch on the greens – which past history suggests he can – then he makes for a viable first-round option.
Brian Gay (+10000):
After opening his defense efforts with a 4-over 75, the 2020 Bermuda Championship winner closed with rounds of 67-64-68 to finish in a respectable tie for 13th. While his course history at Port Royal Golf Course gets all the headlines, his play at El Camaleon cannot be understated.
A winner here in 2008, Gay is set to make his 11th appearance at Mayakoba this week. Making the cut in his previous 10 outings in Mexico, Gay holds a scoring average of 68.83 over 40 rounds. Clearly a correlation to a course such as Harbour Town Golf Links and to some extent the PGA West rotation – two venues where Gay has also won – this week provides one of the few opportunities Gay has to contend.
He’ll need to be better off-the-tee as his accuracy has declined a bit, but despite this, his par-4 and par-5 play has continued to improve. Add in his efficient conversion rate last week on his eagle and birdie opportunities and Gay’s strong finish in Bermuda could lead to a fast start here in Mexico.
Tyler Duncan (+10000):
Boasting zero top-10 finishes since his maiden victory at the 2019 RSM Classic over Webb Simpson, Duncan has begun this new season on a mission as his two-year win exemption draws closer to an end. Despite missing the cut at the Fortinet Championship, the 32-year-old garnered his best performance from tee-to-green in more than two months. He carried the momentum to his next start where a quality result finally materialized.
Finishing in a tie for 14th at Sanderson Farms Championship, the former Purdue Boilmaker posted +5.1 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. In the midst of strong play, Duncan now arrives at Mayakoba for the fifth time in his career, where he has made the cut in each of his previous appearances. While he finished in a tie for 23rd last season, it is the 2019 edition of the tournament which caught my eye.
Carding a third round 9-under 62 two years ago, Duncan is capable of firing one of the lowest rounds of the day on Thursday. Great from off-the-tee and a known birdie-maker, if he can avoid the occasional hiccup then we could be in business.
Bill Haas (+10000):
I know what you’re thinking, but I don’t mind Haas in this spot, given he is as long as +25000 depending on where you shop. Making his fourth appearance at Mayakoba – with his previous three being spread out from 2007 to 2018 – the former FedEx Cup Champion has found some success on the Norman design.
While I understand he is not the player he used to be, I think he’s slowly, but surely making his way back to a semblance of his former-self. As outside of the third round at the Shriners Children’s Open, where he lost nearly 10-strokes to the field, there have been signs of life. Having a recent three tournament stretch where he was positive from tee-to-green should only bolster his confidence.
What he lacks in par-5 scoring, he makes up for with his competence on short par-4’s - which there are plenty of at El Camaleon. Throw in two top-30 finishes in Puerto Rico the last two years and there is a doorway, albeit it a narrow one, for Haas to walk through on Thursday.
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