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A full-field event finally presents itself after a couple weeks of limited fields and no cuts. The Wyndham Championship will boast a field of 156 players, the majority of which will be packing their bags come Friday evening. As such, this should grant us a bit more leeway than usual as four rounds will not be guaranteed this week at Sedgefield Country Club.
When analyzing these head-to-head matchups for the Wyndham Championship, you can take a lot from the statistical profile of someone like Webb Simpson. Arguably the most well versed to this Donald Ross design, the former Demon Deacon seems to be in contention year in and year out in Greensboro, North Carolina.
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Since capturing his first career PGA Tour victory here in 2011, all Simpson has done is made nine consecutive cuts in this event. Of those starts, Simpson has six top-10 finishes, including finishes of 3rd, T-2, 2nd, and T-3 in the last four seasons. Clearly comfortable around this property, Simpson has utilized his accuracy off-the-tee, precision with his scoring clubs, and a cooperative flat stick. For a short par-70 with undulating greens, that sounds like a recipe for success and one that we will be following.
We are on the precipice of making our 100th matchup wager since the RBC Heritage. Sitting at 94 coming into the week, it is likely it will have to wait till The Northern Trust, barring how many catch our attention throughout the tournament. However, for now, we shall focus on the full-tournament head-to-head matchups for the Wyndham Championship.
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Head-to-Head Matchups (Odds Via PointsBet Sportsbook):
Charl Schwartzel (-125) over Brandt Snedeker
It’s been nearly five months since Schwartzel has missed a cut in a non-major start, having missed the weekend at Kiawah Island. Outside of the PGA Championship, he is a perfect 10 for 10 on weekend appearances and is a streak I like him to extend this week at Sedgefield CC.
Tee-to-green he’s been exceptional over the entirety of the summer, with performances of +10.2, +8.6, +5.8, +4.5, and +4.2 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Coming off a runner-up finish at the 3M Open, the South African has shown that if his putter shows up then he is likely to find himself on the first page of the leaderboard.
At the AT&T Byron Nelson, where Schwartzel finished in a tie for third, he posted +2.7 SG: Putting. Then most recently at TPC Twin Cities, the 2011 Masters champion gained 6.5 strokes with the flat stick. In what will be his fourth start at the Wyndham Championship, Schwartzel has proven in the past that he is capable on this Donald Ross design with finishes of T-14 in 2012 and T-3 in 2015.
It’s always an uneasy venture to wager against Snedeker on a Ross design, especially one such as Sedgefield CC. With two top-five finishes and a couple victories under his belt in Greensboro, I am willing to suggest that this year won’t go as smoothly. Coming off a missed cut in California, albeit in a unique format, Snedeker has been over reliant on his short-game as of late.
That isn’t anything new for Snedeker as he has long been known as one of the best putters on Tour. However, it’s not something I am comfortable going to the well with. I’d rather go with the steady South African, who is striking the ball better at the moment.
Seamus Power (-118) over Gary Woodland
One of the hottest players on Tour this summer has been the Irishman, who finally broke through in a playoff victory over J.T. Poston at the Barbasol Championship. When I saw Poston in the mix in Kentucky, I figured there would be some correlation between there and Greensboro, as he is the 2019 Wyndham Championship winner.
We’ll put that theory to the test as Power arrives in as good of form as anyone. Before his win, Power connected on top-10 finishes at the AT&T Byron Nelson, Rocket Mortgage Classic, and the John Deere Classic. In those starts where he didn’t find the first page of the leaderboard, he was still right there. Top-20 finishes at the Palmetto Championship and the Travelers Championship round out a summer to remember for Power.
On the shoulders of strong tee-to-green play, Power’s week is typically determined by his accuracy off-the-tee. He was a bit wild in Connecticut and Detroit, but has since found fairways with regularity. With strong driver performances in his last two starts, I expect more of the same this week, allowing him to contend once again.
Woodland just isn’t one of those players I turn to when the phrase “birdie-fest” gets tossed around. He tends to do his best work when scoring conditions are a bit more difficult such as a tournament like the Wells Fargo Championship. While the pieces of his game are there, and he is coming off a nice start at the Barracuda Championship, I just don’t see it. In his lone start here in 2012, Woodland missed the cut and something along those lines could be in store this week.
Kevin Streelman (-106) over Tommy Fleetwood
Wagering against Fleetwood the past couple of months has continued to fall our way. We’ll be employing the same strategy this week as the Englishman has not cracked the top-20 on the PGA Tour since May. While he is consistently making cuts, the performances have just not added up for Fleetwood, who arrives to Sedgefield CC needing a big week to get into the field in New Jersey for the first playoff event.
At 136th in the FedEx Cup standings, Fleetwood needs at least an 11th-place finish this week to gain entry into The Northern Trust. He’ll likely need some help as well, but Fleetwood hasn’t been one to thrive in high pressure situations over the last year or so. Combine that with a tee-to-green game that has seemingly abandoned him and I find myself looking to a former Duke Blue Devil instead.
Two missed cuts left a sour taste in many mouths as Streelman was trending perfectly ahead of the Travelers Championship and the John Deere Classic. Alas it wasn’t meant to be as he has since captured a top-20 finish at The Open to further improve on his major championship record this season.
A course such as Sedgefield CC should fit his eye, despite his history in Greensboro suggesting otherwise. Outside of those two weeks where he caught an early flight home, Streelman has been phenomenal tee-to-green which should translate to a strong showing in the Wyndham Championship.
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