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The PGA Tour heads to Sedgefield Country Club for the Wyndham Championship as 156 players are set to tee it up in the season finale. Whatever one’s motivations are, whether it is making the playoffs, securing full-time status, or manufacturing a late charge for the Ryder Cup, there is plenty at stake this week in Greensboro, North Carolina
A Donald Ross design, this par-70 has long rewarded accuracy over sheer power as it measures just north of 7,100 yards. With players such as Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner, and Ryan Armour all enjoying previous success at Sedgefield CC, the above thought is validated relatively easily.
Those players possess accuracy off-the-tee, precision with their scoring clubs, and can catch a hot putter when needed. That’s essentially what we will be looking at combined with the all-important ability to make birdies in bunches. Winning scores have reached 21 and 22-under over the past half decades, so par-breakers are a must, especially for our first-round leader selections.
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Those low scores have started immediately in the first-round, giving players no opportunity to catch their breath and ease their way into the tournament. Harold Varner III, Tom Hoge, and Roger Sloan kicked off the 2020 edition of this tournament with low Thursdays. Each opened with a round of eight-under and boasted odds longer than +7000 to lead after the first-round.
That should be to our liking as Harris English’s first-round performance last week rained on our first-round leader parade. While it was a valiant effort by Jim Herman at +15000, it wasn’t meant to be and we’ll look to get back on track this week.
2011 Wyndham Championship winner and tournament-favorite, Simpson, sits atop the first-round leader market at PointsBet Sportsbook at +2500. With only 11 players listed at or below +5000, the vast majority of players have odds that could provide for a nice payday. Let’s hope we can decipher the odds board properly as we have been known to set up camp in this region.
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Odds to Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
+2500: Webb Simpson
+2800: Hideki Matsuyama
+3000: Louis Oosthuizen
+3300: Jason Kokrak
+4000: Brian Harman, Will Zalatoris
+5000: Sungjae Im, Kevin Na, Russell Henley, Si Woo Kim, Tommy Fleetwood
+5500: Kevin Streelman
To Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
Hank Lebioda +7000:
Lebioda has been the darling of the PGA Tour this summer. With strong finishes at the Travelers Championship, Rocket Mortgage Classic, and John Deere Classic, the former Florida State standout was high on many lists going into the 3M Open.
After opening with a pair of 69’s, Lebioda had to withdraw from the tournament to attend to a family emergency. Perhaps a forgotten a man this week, I expect him to keep this summer surge going at the Wyndham Championship.
Averaging a first-round score of 67.75 over the last three months, Lebioda has shown the ability to get out of the gates fast. He’s even done so at Sedgefield CC before, as he opened last year’s tournament with a five-under 65. The year before, Lebioda carded that same score, albeit in the second round. Making his third appearance at this Donald Ross design, I expect Lebioda to improve on those performances as his putter has found a new gear.
Gaining more than five-strokes on the greens in his last three starts, Lebioda has turned what was once a weakness into a massive strength. With the putting prowess there, it’s just a matter of hitting fairways for Lebioda. If he does so, then he should give himself plenty of birdie opportunities as the iron-play has been strong enough to warrant Thursday consideration.
Roger Sloan +8000:
Sloan has quietly started to build a reputation of a Thursday warrior as he was one of the players to join our selection, Jhonattan Vegas, as a first-round leader at the 3M Open. Not only that, but when looking at previous leaderboards at the Wyndham Championship, as mentioned above, Sloan opened last year’s tournament with an eight-under 62 to grab a share of the early lead.
He arrives this year riding some serious momentum. A solo sixth last week at the Barracuda Championship was on the shoulders of a strong weekend push, carding 25 points over his final two rounds with 12 birdies and an eagle.
A 64 at the 3M Open wasn’t his lone low Thursday in recent memory as he opened the Rocket Mortgage Classic with a seven-under 65. He gained more than two-strokes on the greens in both of those rounds, so something in that neighborhood should do the trick as he has been one of the best players tee-to-green in first rounds over the last couple of months.
Patrick Rodgers +10000:
Don’t look now, but Rodgers has quietly strung together eight consecutive made cuts. This streak includes last week at the Barracuda Championship, where he finished in a tie for 13th thanks to a weekend performance of 24 points (12 birdies, an eagle, and five bogeys).
While he didn’t start strong, he certainly finished on a high note which should bode well for his first-round leader prospects at the Wyndham Championship. We’ve seen before that great Sunday performances the week before can lead to low scores the following Thursday, just look at Rickie Fowler and his play to finish The Open and to begin the 3M Open.
I expect something similar out of Rodgers and even more so because he has shown the knack to play well in the first-round. With Round 1 scores of 68, 67, 65, and 67 over the last two months, Rodgers has become a birdie-making machine on Thursdays. He knows how to take advantage of scorable par-4’s and gettable par-5’s and if he is able to avoid the occasional slip up, then he has plenty of firepower to go low at Sedgefield CC.
Tom Lewis +12500:
We had high hopes for the Englishman at the 3M Open and while he fell short, we won’t be discouraged by the lack of winning ticket. Had Lewis just played his final three-holes of his first-round at TPC Twin Cities in one-under, he would have captured a share of the first-round lead. While it wasn’t meant to be in Minnesota, I believe it could be in North Carolina.
Coming off a final round score of eight points at the Barracuda Championship where he carded five birdies to go along with two bogeys, Lewis arrives to Sedgefield CC for only the second time in his career. He opened last year’s tournament with a three-under 67 before finishing in a tie for 51st and while he doesn’t have ample history, he does boast some strong results at similar courses.
He opened with a 69 at the Barbasol Championship a few weeks ago, a tournament that 2019 Wyndham Championship victor J.T. Poston had all but won. A couple weeks prior, he started fast at Detroit GC, another Donald Ross design, carding a first-round score of 65. It’s just a matter of time before Lewis comes through on a Thursday and if he able to convert his par-5 scoring opportunities, then I like his chances, as those have been the holes that have been giving him fits recently.
Davis Thompson +15000:
Making only the sixth professional start of his young career, Thompson has already shown flashes of the type of player that he could possibly become. A decorated amateur and college standout at the University of Georgia, the former Bulldog has shown more than once that he likes to go low on Thursday.
As it was at the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot where the average golf fan got introduced to Thompson. Playing alongside fellow Bulldogs in Harris English and Brendon Todd, Thompson carded a first-round of one-under 69.
He reminded us at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in early July that he is a force to be reckon with in Round 1. Opening with a nine-under 63, Thompson held the solo lead after the first day at Detroit GC. While this will be his Wyndham Championship debut, I wouldn’t be shocked if the 22-year-old is on the first page of the Thursday leaderboard once again.
Michael Gellerman +25000:
Gellerman will hold the distinct honor of being the longest shot we have put up in this article. Coming off a missed cut at the Barracuda Championship, I am hoping the extra couple of days off will serve him well.
The former Oklahoma Sooner has been absolutely pounding the sweet spot of his irons as of late. Before missing the cut in California, Gellerman had gained 26.5 strokes on approach over his last five starts. That includes a performance at the 3M Open where he posted +8.7 Strokes Gained: Approach, leading the field in said category.
In those five outings, nearly 40 percent of that strokes gained total occurred in the first-round alone. Yet the problem with Gellerman on Thursdays has been not only his around-the-green play, but also his play on the par-5’s.
Sedgefield CC could be just what the doctor ordered as it is a course that features easy-to-hit greens and only two par-5’s. If he can keep his irons tight and avoid missing greens in regulation, and somehow take advantage of the par-5’s, then the rest of his game should be up to the task of leading after the first-round.
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