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Wyndham Championship: Will Anyone Catch Henley?

Matt Kuchar

Matt Kuchar

Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

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Playoff hopes have vanished for some as the Wyndham Championship reaches its halfway point. With 74 players making the cut Friday evening, a number of other postseason hopefuls were left packing their bags and pondering their professional futures.

While still exempt thru next season, Rickie Fowler was a player to see his season come to an early end. This marks the first time in Fowler’s career that he won’t be in the FedEx Cup Playoffs as he was a perfect 12 for 12 before this year. However, with rounds of 71-72, the five-time winner on the PGA Tour will have to wait till the fall swing of the new season to continue his return to form.

With the possibility of an assistant captainship floating around this may not be the last we see of Fowler. Rumors have swirled of him assisting Steve Stricker in a non-playing capacity next month at Whistling Straits. A four-time member of Team USA, and one of the youngest players ever to make his Ryder Cup debut, his experience could prove to be valuable as the team begins to take form with two qualifying events left after this weekend.

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One player who still has an opportunity to garner support for a captain’s pick is Webb Simpson. The pre-tournament favorite got off to a rocky start yesterday, carding a double-bogey six on his first hole of the day. However, he has since rebounded and hasn’t looked back as the 2011 champion posted his second consecutive 5-under 65.

Sitting 13th in the Team USA rankings, Simpson will likely need to rely on Stricker’s discretion to make the squad in Wisconsin next month. Yet, a victory would go a very long way to prove that his game is up to the task of dismantling Team Europe. As one of the few bright spots in France in 2018, Simpson gathered two points for Team USA in only three matches.

The three-time Ryder Cup member will have a slew of players to contend with heading into the weekend at the Wyndham Championship, including recent Olympic silver medalist, Rory Sabbatini. After making a bogey on the third hole of his first round, Sabbatini has since gone bogey-free over his last 33 holes in conjunction with making 11 birdies to stand alongside Simpson at 10-under.

Joining the duo in the chasing position is Scott Piercy who is coming off a strong finish at the Barracuda Championship last week. After making two eagles in his first-round, Piercy got around Sedgefield Country Club in a bogey-free fashion on Friday. A ho-hum round of 4-under 66 puts Piercy in a fantastic position to secure his status on the PGA Tour.

Coming into the season finale 126th in the FedEx Cup standings, Piercy was in need of at least a 34th-place finish. With the likes of Ryan Armour (no. 122), Patrick Rodgers (no. 123), and Bo Hoag (no. 125) all missing the cut, Piercy is in fine shape to play himself into the playoffs.

Yet they’ll all be trying to track down the overnight leader, Russell Henley. After getting off to a rocky start on Friday, making bogey on his third hole of the day, Henley dropped to 7-under for the tournament. With four consecutive birdies, Henley turned in 3-under 32 before adding three more on his back-nine to card a second-round of 6-under 64. Sitting at 14-under, and four-strokes clear of his nearest pursuers, Henley is the favorite at Points Bet Sportsbook at +130.

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Updated Odds to Win (Odds Via PointsBet):

+130: Russell Henley

+350: Webb Simpson

+1200: Rory Sabbatini

+1400: Justin Rose

+2200: Brian Stuard, Scott Piercy

+2500: Kevin Na, Kevin Streelman

+4000: Kevin Kisner

+4500: Sebastian Munoz

+5000: Jhonattan Vegas

+5500: Sungjae Im, Mackenzie Hughes

+6000: Chris Kirk

+6600: Tyler Duncan


Round 3 Targets (Odds Via PointsBet):

Sebastian Munoz:

If you were keen to last night’s article, you now understand why I rarely add outright selections after the first-round. While Francesco Molinari laid an egg for us, not only missing the cut, but losing his three-ball, Chesson Hadley picked up the slack by winning his group at a rather large price of +223. So, with all of that in the past, we’ll rollover our winnings into some other players as we have some funds to work with.

At 14-under, it’s going to be tough for anyone to catch Henley. Couple that with Simpson being his closest pursuer and Rose not far behind and I reckon matchups are the way to go. A player in Munoz’s position likely needs something in the neighborhood of 63-63 over the weekend to steal this trophy from Henley. While he has shown in the past that he can get red hot, I feel more comfortable going to him in a matchup setting and will try to grab a number longer than +4500 if it presents itself.

Standing at 7-under for the tournament and in a tie for 12th, Munoz’s first two rounds read 66-67. Needing to improve on that 36-hole total by let’s say seven-strokes, Munoz will simply need to score better on the back-nine tomorrow having played it in even-par thus far.

While he has gained strokes in the ball-striking department in the first two rounds, the cause for optimism lies on the greens. After posting +0.35 Strokes Gained: Putting in Round 1, Munoz improved on that number on Friday with a performance of +0.73 SG: Putting. Fractions, yes, but it may suggest a larger movement towards success come the weekend. If he can continue to build on these incremental gains on the greens, the flood gates could very well open tomorrow.


Matt Kuchar:

Kuchar strikes me as another player who could be in for a big weekend. Coming into the week 124th in the FedEx Cup standings, he has all but locked up his spot in The Northern Trust next week. While the job may be done in some eyes, I believe his motivation levels will remain high, especially if he is able to kick in a couple early birdies tomorrow.

Like Munoz, Kuchar sits in the logjam at 7-under in a tie for 12th. Based on the statistics from the first two rounds, if there is a player to post 14-under over the next two days, Kuchar makes for a valid case. Ranking fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green, the 43-year-old has utilized a balanced approach thus far. However, there is a reason he is only 7-under and that is the putter, as it has been detrimental to his score, having lost -1.06 strokes on the greens in Round 2.

We have to address the elephant in the room and that is his putting method. Resting the putter grip on his right arm, it is one of the more unorthodox grips on Tour. He’s been switching between pinning the putter shaft his left and right arm the last couple of months, so it hardly exudes confidence on the greens. Yet at +9000, I find myself drawn to the flame, as he has shown throughout his career the ability to roll the rock.

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