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Another week, another near miss for us in the first-round leader department. Despite his best efforts –carding a round of 10-under 62 – Keith Mitchell came up one-stroke short at The Summit Club. Regardless of the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP taking on a similar look by having a field of 78 players and featuring no-cut, this week’s odds at PointsBet Sportsbook are vastly different compared to THE CJ CUP @ SUMMIT.
With Collin Morikawa carding a final round 62 and Xander Schauffele doing one worse with a 63, I would be lying if I said I was not afraid of the top of the odds board. Couple this with first-round fiend Emiliano Grillo coming off an 11-under 61 and things look bleak further down.
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However, with first-round stalwarts such as Jhonattan Vegas and Keegan Bradley shortening, we will have to get creative with how we attack Thursday (Wednesday evening here on the east coast). Taking place at Narashino Country Club, avenues through which one can find success may be limited.
The name of the game for us will be fairway finders and birdie-makers. Measuring just north of 7,000 yards, those players who can hone in on their scoring clubs and take advantage of their opportunities will take center stage. In addition to this, par-3 scoring should receive a slight uptick in our analysis as Narashino CC boasts five such holes, an unusual feature of this golf course.
With such a small field, there is no wave advantage in Japan as all players will tee off within a two-hour window. Morikawa just edges out Schauffele as the first-round favorite at PointsBet, currently listed at +1400.
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Odds to Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
+1400: Collin Morikawa
+1600: Xander Schauffele
+2000: Hideki Matsuyama
+2800: Will Zalatoris
+3000: Rickie Fowler, Tommy Fleetwood
+3500: Alex Noren, Cameron Tringale, Charley Hoffman, Erik van Rooyen, Jhonattan Vegas, Joaquin Niemann, Keegan Bradley, Maverick McNealy, Si Woo Kim
+4000: C.T. Pan, Chris Kirk, Emiliano Grillo, K.H. Lee, Mackenzie Hughes
+5000: Adam Schenk, Branden Grace, Carlos Ortiz, Henrik Norlander, Lanto Griffin, Luke List, Matt Wallace, Roger Sloan, Ryan Palmer, Takumi Kanaya
To Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
Ryosuke Kinoshita (+7000):
The current money leader on the Japan Golf Tour Organization (JGTO), Kinoshita is in the midst of a career year. Boasting two victories and nine additional top-10 finishes, the 30-year-old has climbed inside the top 75 in the official world golf ranking.
Leading the JGTO in total driving and greens in regulation, Kinoshita has been able to translate his strong ball-striking into quality rounds. In his 23 starts this season in Japan, Kinoshita has been inside the top-10 after the completion of Round 1 on seven occurrences.
Possessing the first-round lead in two of these instances, Kinoshita’s home country advantage could yield dividends on Thursday. Coming in a tie for third in his last start at the Japan Open Golf Championship, Kinoshita finished strong and will hopefully carry the momentum to Narashino CC.
Scott Vincent (+7000):
I was eying Vincent as I started my analysis this past week and Josh Culp’s seal of approval sent me over the edge. A long-hitting birdie-maker, the man from Virginia Tech (Go Hokies) ranks second in par-breakers, sixth in greens in regulation, third in eagles, and fifth in driving distance on the JGTO.
He has simply been unbelievable as of late as well, finishing inside the top-20 in each of his last eight starts in Japan. Leading after the first-round at the Sansan KBC Augusta, Vincent parlayed the fast start into a wire-to-wire victory.
He has since captured the ANA Open thanks in part to a second round 63, propelling him to the top of the leaderboard. Coming in a tie for 16th at the 2020 Olympic Games, the Zimbabwean has proven his game stacks up with the world’s best. Like Kinoshita, Vincent may hold a slight edge due to his familiarity with the nuances of golf in Japan and should bode well for his first-round prospects.
James Hahn (+10000):
A tight, tree-lined course which requires accuracy off-the-tee should be right in Hahn’s wheelhouse. Coming off consecutive missed cuts to begin his 2021-2022 PGA Tour season, the two-time winner may need to lean on his previous success in Asia. With two top-10 finishes a bit further south at the CIMB Classic in Malaysia, the man from South Korea has played plenty of golf in this part of the world.
While the form doesn’t look fantastic at first glance, Narashino CC could be the perfect medicine. Hitting fairways in a more efficient manner – relative to the field – in 13 of his last 15 starts on the PGA Tour, that skill should be transferrable to this week at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP.
Converting his birdie opportunities at an effective rate, it will just be a matter of his iron-play giving him enough looks. While his approach numbers have been spotty, they’ve actually been solid from inside of 200 yards and should lead to success at Narashino CC.
Satoshi Kodaira (+10000):
Remember this guy? A DFS darling during the summer of 2021, Kodaira put together a great stretch of golf starting in May. Collecting finishes of T-11, T-13, T-19, and T-36 in four consecutive starts, the 32-year-old appeared prime for a strong finish to his season. Unfortunately, things did not pan out as Kodaira had to play in the Korn Ferry Tour Playoffs, garnering little success.
However, the 2018 RBC Heritage winner – another tight, tree-lined course I might add – may have turned the corner last week at the Japan Open Golf Championship. Carding rounds of 66-66-68-76, Kodaira shot out of the gates and was well-positioned up until the final round.
Ranking fifth in greens in regulation and birdies or better, if he can carry the iron-play and putting to Narashino CC, we could be in business. He led the field here in 2019 in driving accuracy, a must when looking at single round prospects as one poor swing could ruin the entire round. The pieces of the puzzle are on Kodaira’s table, it will just be a matter of him putting them together.
Wesley Bryan (+10000):
From one RBC Heritage winner to another as Bryan checks in as our last first-round leader selection. Having not played on the PGA Tour since the AT&T Byron Nelson, there are plenty of unknowns around Bryan’s form heading into the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP.
Yet before his hiatus, Bryan was enjoying a nice stretch of golf, capturing finishes of T-25 at the RBC Heritage and T-26 at the AT&T Byron Nelson. Posting +4.4 and +5.9 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green in those two starts, the South Carolina native leaned on his approach play.
Something I envision him doing so again this week at Narashino CC. A great wedge player – commonly referred to as “Wedgley” Bryan – if he can hit enough fairways, he should only thrive from there on.
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