One of the most productive paths to the Kentucky Derby over the past 10 years has been through Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Florida, as three of the 10 most recent winners of “The Run for the Roses” had their final prep in South Florida (Always Dreaming in 2017, Nyquist in 2016 and Orb in 2013). On Saturday, the Grade 1 Florida Derby will be headlined by Greatest Honour, a horse trained by Shug McGaughey. McGaughey was the trainer of 2013 Florida Derby winner Orb, who then went on to prevail on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs, giving the Hall of Fame trainer his only Kentucky Derby victory to date. Could Greatest Honour follow the path Orb set en route to Kentucky Derby glory?
The Most Likely Winner
From an accomplishment standpoint, there is no arguing that Greatest Honour (#7, 6/5 morning line odds) deserves to be the favorite in the Florida Derby. A perfect three-for-three at Gulfstream Park in his career, Greatest Honour has overpowered his competition to date, winning both the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth and Grade 3 Holy Bull in stylish fashion from off the pace. Visually, the son of all-world sire Tapit has needed some encouragement during the middle portions of his races, but once he has hit the top of the homestretch, he has extended beautifully, powering down the lane. Greatest Honour gives off the impression that additional distance in races will only work to his benefit, making Saturday’s race at a mile and one-eighth no concern whatsoever.
The biggest concern for Greatest Honour headed into the Florida Derby is the fact that, based on speed figures, he does not have any real edge or advantage over some of his competition; in fact, there are two horses in the race who have run faster than Greatest Honour has to this point in his career. This isn’t to say that he can’t run faster; it’s just pointing out that he hasn’t to this point, and, at an extremely short price, he may be worth betting against here (3/1 odds seem fair, which is roughly a 24% chance of victory), but he will be closer to even-money (roughly 50% chance of victory).
[[ad:athena]]
The Value
The old horse racing adage “pace makes the race” is an accurate concept; the slower the horses leading the race are allowed to go early, the more energy they should have at the end of the race, making it difficult for the horses from the rear of the field to make up ground. Conversely, the faster the horses leading are forced to go early, the less energy they should have at the end of the race, making it much easier for the off-the-pace types to make up ground. Saturday’s Florida Derby does not appear to have a great deal of pace signed on, something that could greatly compromise Greatest Honour’s chances and perhaps elevate the chances for a horse like Collaborate (#9, 6/1 ML odds). Trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr., Collaborate is a lightly-raced colt who will be taking on winners for the first time on Saturday. Not only that, but he will be going two turns for the first time in his career, while navigating a trip longer than one mile for the first time. There is no shortage of obstacles for this horse to overcome, but he appears to be one of the horses that figures to benefit from a tepid pace scenario. It seems unlikely he will go off at his morning line odds of 6/1, but given the tactical advantage he looks to have, odds of 7/2 (roughly 22% chance of victory) or better feel reasonable.
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code WELCOME10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
The Longshot
While both Collaborate and Soup and Sandwich (#8, 20/1 ML odds) have raced twice, visually one looks to be much farther along than the other. Collaborate has the look of a horse who, while a bit green, should not lose Saturday’s race because of inexperience. If he loses, will likely be because he is not as good as the others at this stage in his career. Conversely, it feels like a real possibility that Soup and Sandwich could lose the Florida Derby purely because he races like a horse who has no idea what he is doing at this juncture. The talent certainly appears to be there based on his first two career starts, but in his most recent start at Tampa Bay Downs, Soup and Sandwich raced erratically down the lane, veering in and out while swapping leads on multiple occasions. He may be every bit as talented as the horses he will face on Saturday, but he gives off the impression that he will need a bit of refinement before we see his best. That said, if he is anything near his morning line odds of 20/1, he is not impossible based on speed figures alone (8/1 odds, which is roughly a 11% chance of victory) feels acceptable.
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links
