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Sean Manaea O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Giants
Sean Manaea had arguably the most impressive start for any pitcher so far in 2022, with 7.0 innings of no-hit baseball against the Diamondbacks in his first start with the Padres.
Manaea also tossed seven strikeouts and one walk on 88 pitches against Arizona.
He was not traded long ago but fit right in with San Diego. While Manaea impressed in every way, he will now take on a much more talented offense and team.
Arizona has a .130 batting average through five games, last in the MLB. San Francisco is seventh at .256.
Manaea has seven career starts against the Giants and went Under 6.5 strikeouts in six (85.7%), per statmuse. I expect regression compared to the last start and asking him to rack up the same amount of Ks is tough against a team he normally does not hit seven-plus against.
The 30-year has made three starts at San Francisco and went 1-1 with a 2.65 ERA allowing 11 hits in 17.0 innings with 13 Ks. He struck out seven, five and one in those three starts with five total walks.
Going over the current Giants hitters versus Manaea, they own 71 plate appearances per baseball savant and just 10 strikeouts for a 14.1 K%. In 48 plate appearances for Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Wilmer Flores and Austin Slater versus Manaea, they have five combined strikeouts.
Manaea had a .328 OBA versus RHB last season and the Giants should have at least five RHB in the lineup, including the youngster Heliot Ramos, who is being hyped up after two hits in his season-opener.
I played Manaea Under 6.5 strikeouts at -134 odds and would play this to -160. DK opened this at 5.5 -130.
Pick: Sean Manaea Under 6.5 Strikeouts (1.5u)
Jose Berrios O/U 5.5 Strikeouts vs.Yankees
We all know Jose Berrios was shelled in his first start of the season tossing 34 pitches and earning one out before being pulled against the Rangers.
Berrios walked two and allowed four earned runs on three hits with no strikeouts. He simply did not have in it him. Here are some splits on Berrios in Spring Training and the season opener, both of which were not good and rolled over into the regular-season.
Spring Training
8 IP, 10 ER, 2.25 WHIP, 11.25 ERA
Season Opener
0.1 IP, 4 ER, 15 WHIP, 108.0 ERA
With a shortened Spring Training, there have been a few pitchers that don’t look like themselves, Berrios is one of them.
Berrios has five career starts against New York and has 31 strikeouts to 10 walks over 26.2 innings of action. In his last three versus the Yankees, he went Over 5.5 strikeouts all three times, but I don’t see that happening here.
Berrios allowed at least two earned runs in four straight meetings versus New York, something I can see happening again.
In 113 career plate appearances against current New York hitters, the Yankees own a .222 BA and 34 strikeouts. New York has nine batters who have nine or more plate appearances against Berrios, so there is a decent sample size to work off.
With the amount of contact made yesterday against Yusei Kikuchi, Berrios could be in for another short outing. Unless Berrios has a tremendous game, I expect Toronto to pull him once a couple of runs score and monitor him closely.
He is 3-1 to the Under 5.5 Ks with Toronto when going 5.2 or fewer innings (75%). Since the start of 2021, Berrios is 8-4 to the Under 5.5 strikeouts (66.6%) when he does not make it 6.0 innings.
We have to fade him until he proves otherwise.
I played the Under 5.5 strikeouts at -142 on FanDuel and would play this to -160. I expect a O/U 4.5 with a juiced Over to show up closer to first pitch. DK has the Under at -170, while PointsBet is at -154 and MGM at -155.
Pick: Jose Berrios Under 5.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Zach Thompson O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Cubs
It’s a day to fade the Zach’s or Zack’s!
In two meetings versus the Cubs last season, Zach Thompson recorded three and seven strikeouts. Oddly, Thompson had seven strikeouts over 4.0 innings and four Ks in the 6.0 inning performance.
However, Chicago is not striking out like they were last season. The Cubs have 37 strikeouts (23rd) and 19 walks (T-9th) through four games with a .242 BA (12th)
So far, Freddy Peralta hit six strikeouts, Corbin Burnes (4), Jose Quintana (3) and Brandon Woodruff (2) all went for four or fewer strikeouts against Chicago. Thomspon should struggle to hit three or four strikeouts.
Thompson finished in the 30th percentile for K% last season and he should not have more Ks than Burnes and come nowhere near Peralta in this spot. Thompson has not faced any Pirates hitter more than four times and has 21 plate appearances against this current Cubs team.
Thompson had a .262 OBA versus LHB with a .807 OPS compared to a .196 OBA and .567 OPS last season. Chicago could throw Jason Heyward, Rafael Ortega, Alfonso Rivas and switch hitters Jonathan Villar and Ian Happ in the lineup today to give the Cubs anywhere from 3-5 LHB versus Thompson.
I grabbed Thompson Under 3.5 strikeouts at -146 odds and would play to -160.
Pick: Zach Thompson Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)
NOTE: THIS GAME WAS POSTPONED
Zack Greinke O/U 3.5 Strikeouts vs. Cardinals
Zack Greinke kicked off his season with 5.2 innings and one strikeout against the Guardians.
His second start against the Cardinals should be just as challenging for the 38-year-old RHP. Greinke will make his first road start of the year and the first time he has faced the Cardinals since 2019.
However, being 38, he has been around the league. Greinke has 277 plate appearances against this current roster with 58 strikeouts (20.9%) and a .252 OBA.
Nolan Arenado, Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, Paul Goldschmidt and Corey Dickerson have at least 27 plate appearances against Greinke. The latest Royals pitcher posted a .285 OBA versus RHB last year with the Diamondbacks compared to .199 against LHB.
St. Louis will stack the lineup with at least seven RHB and make life difficult for Greinke. He averaged 0.70 strikeouts per inning last season and 0.68 Ks on the road. I don’t see Greinke going past 5.0 innings. He is 5-2 to the Under 3.5 Ks in his last seven games pitching fewer than 5.0 innings.
St. Louis has the third-highest BA (.271), highest OPS (.874) and the second-fewest strikeouts (26 in four games). Greinke posted a .845 OPS and .305 OBA versus RHB last season and the Cardinals only have two LHB on the roster, so expect a ton of righties against Greinke.
I played Greinke Under 3.5 strikeouts (-140) and would play him out to -150.
Pick: Zack Greinke Under 3.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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