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One team has not lost in the playoffs while the other may have been the last team to qualify for the postseason but has stolen the headlines. Led by the probable Cy Young winner, Justin Verlander, the Houston Astros were the top seed in the American League. It was not too shocking to see them steamroll through their series against Seattle and New York. Although a decided underdog against St. Louis and a dog yet again against Juan Soto and San Diego, Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies have ridden an explosive offense to the NL pennant and a berth in the World Series.
Series odds favor Jose Altuve and the Astros (-190) over Rhys Hoskins and the Fightin’ Phils (+160). At this point, it makes more sense for bettors to play each game individually no matter the side they prefer. Should the Phillies win Game 1, though, playing the series odds at that point may make more sense for Houston backers.
That said, we have asked our analysts to offer their thoughts as to the winner and MVP prior to the first pitch of the Series. No shock but they are divided in their plays.
Philadelphia (+160) vs. Houston (-190)
Drew Silva (@drewsilv): Astros win 4-2
It can feel like the Phillies are the hottest team on the planet given all of their dramatic victories throughout the Wild Card Series, National League Division Series, and National League Championship Series. The lowest seed on the NL side of the postseason bracket coming in, they have played 11 games in these playoffs and won nine of them. But the Astros probably look at that path as downright grueling compared to their own. They got a bye past the Wild Card Series before rolling to a three-game ALDS sweep of the Mariners and a four-game ALCS sweep of the Yankees. The top overall seed on the AL side of the bracket, Houston has played seven games in these playoffs and won all seven.
Talk all you want about Philly’s elite top-end talent, but the Astros have that too, with a tremendous advantage when it comes to pitching depth. And pitching depth is always a factor in a best-of-seven set. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, the ‘Stros are fully in command to claim the hardware in the 118th edition of baseball’s World Series.
World Series MVP: Yordan Alvarez
DJ Short (@djshort): Astros win 4-2
Amid all the hand-wringing of the new postseason format, the top-seeded Houston Astros have won all seven of their games and enter the World Series as the favorites against the Wild Card and originally 6th seeded Philadelphia Phillies.
The Fightin’ Phils, who finished in third place in the NL East during the regular season, have had their high-end talent show up big at just the right time. However, this series will be a true test in terms of their pitching depth. The Phillies still have big questions in terms of their Game 4 starter (Falter? Syndergaard? Gibson?) while the Astros have more stability with a top-four of Verlander, Valdez, McCullers, and Garcia. And while Philadelphia’s bullpen is no longer a punchline, Houston has more in the way of quality depth, which should matter over the course of a long series.
The lineups are close to a wash here, so the Astros’ pitching edge should be enough to carry the day and get Dusty Baker that elusive World Series championship as a manager.
MVP prediction: Alex Bregman
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Kenny Ducey (@KennyDucey): Phillies win 4-1
These Houston Astros are not nearly as scary as those Houston Astros. Yes, Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers are damn near unhittable, but the two pitchers Houston will lean on to make multiple starts in this series will be Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez. The former owns a 6.30 ERA this postseason, marking his third straight postseason with an ERA over four runs, and the latter allowed 10 earned runs in his two World Series starts last year. Philadelphia owns lefties, ranking sixth in wRC+, and it should have no issues owning Verlander considering his history in big games.
The Phillies own the better offense here with a .749 OPS in 11 games this October, and they may own the better starting rotation with Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler out-performing Verlander and Valdez this postseason (and for most of the regular season). Sure, McCullers and/or Javier are better than Ranger Suárez, but I expect the disparity in front-line starting to make the difference here with two very comparable offenses.
The Astros have been incredibly fortunate to face two rather unserious playoff teams and are not prepared for a buzzsaw like the Phillies, who are getting offensive contributions up and down the order. Houston’s offense is top-heavy, and Yordan Alvarez is also quietly in a funk. I think the momentum continues.
MVP prediction: Zack Wheeler
John Venezia (@_JohnnyVTV): Phillies win 4-3
While I cashed my Phillies NL ticket, I still have a bet on the Astros to win it all from prior to postseason play. I am so torn because I picked Philadelphia to win the WS back in the preseason, but Houston winning is another nice payday.
The one common theme throughout the season and even the playoffs has been almost everybody underestimating the Phils. I was never one to wither on my beliefs, so rolling with the team I had all year seems fitting. Their lineup is deep and getting production from just about every spot in the order.
The pitching for the most part has been outstanding, including the bullpen. Although the Astros are a complete wagon – and Dusty Baker is due for a title – this is setting up for a story book ending for Red October. Stay tuned for game-by-game breakdowns throughout the series.
MVP: Bryce Harper
Enjoy the Series and enjoy the sweat.
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