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We’ve come to the Game 2 of the World Series between the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves, and there’s a ton to unpack here. Houston is making its third trip to the Fall Classic in five years while the Braves are here for the first time since 1999. While it’s a hard one to call, I do have a play on this game and will waste no more time in getting into it now.
Atlanta Braves (+100) vs. Houston Astros (-121) Total: 9
I’ve generally been a fan of Max Fried in the second half of the season, but his start against the Dodgers last week was downright scary. He allowed five earned runs on eight hits and two walks in 4 2/3 innings. The walks were especially concerning, as were the lack of strikeouts.
Now, Fried has a date with the Astros, who ranked atop the league in wRC+ to southpaws this year. They also sat ninth in run value against curveballs. When you combine the narrative here of a team looking to stay right in this series in a big game at home, it’s hard to see Fried making it out of this one unscathed.
Luckily for the Braves, there’s Jose Urquidy. The righty wasn’t necessarily bad this year, but his performance down the stretch was a little suspect. He was initially left off Houston’s postseason roster before being added to replace Lance McCullers. He was promptly shelled by the Red Sox coming off 14 days of rest, not even seeing the third inning.
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Urquidy now enters this start on nine days of rest, and may have similar issues without the time on the hill to get properly warmed up for such a big start. He’s also a fly ball pitcher throwing in a hitter’s park against the team with the second-best home run-to-fly ball ratio in the major leagues. This is going to be trouble.
With both offenses in a great spot, I think there’s still some value in taking the over here. I’d back the Braves if I had to pick a side.
Edge: Over 9
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