As the MLB calendar turns the page to May, it is time to assess where each team stands as a commodity in the sports wagering space. Who is streaking and who can we truly rely on this season? Whose games are consistently hitting the OVER? Who is performing best on the Run Line? And which teams have the best record in the league on the MoneyLine?
Throughout the season in this space, we will highlight a few teams in terms of their reliability whether that be betting on them or against them.
Blue Skies and Palm Trees
Tampa Bay Rays
The team that won the most games in March/April, the Rays sit alone atop our rankings. Wander Franco’s team is an MLB-best 23-6 (79.3%). Averaging more than 2.2 runs per game more than their opponents, the Rays are also a league-best 19-10 on the Run Line. People love offense and the Rays are one of the most reliable teams to hit the OVER as they have gone 16-10-3 to the OVER through the first month of the season.
Note: Tampa Bay is still in search of their first World Series title having reached the World Series but lost in 2008 and 2020.
(Read More: Bryce Harper Set to Return)
Pittsburgh Pirates
Andrew McCutchen and the Pirates are 11 games over .500 through the first 29 games of their season. The Bucs are 19-10 on the Run Line and, like Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh is outscoring its opponents by an average of 2.2 runs per game. They are less reliable when it comes to predicting the Over/Under having gone 14-14-1 thus far to the Over.
Note: For those looking to bet the Pirates to make the playoffs, the team that represented the National League in the World Series in 2022 was the Philadelphia Phillies. Bryce Harper and co. benefitted from the expanded playoff format as they were the last NL team to qualify finishing just 12 games over .500 in the regular season. If that record of 87-75 qualifies a team for the playoffs again this season, the Pirates need only go 67-66 the rest of the season to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
(Read More: Aaron Judge Injury Update)
Reliably Hospitable
Oakland Athletics
The soon to be Vegas A’s are the most generous opponent in the league. Mark Kotsay‘s crew is 6-23 overall. While that inauspicious start makes it unlikely to profit opposing them on the MoneyLine, you can count on Oakland to hit the OVER. No team does it more frequently than Tony Kemp and co. The A’s are hitting the OVER in 70% of their games having gone 19-8-2 through the end of April. In addition, they are just 12-17 on the Run Line.
Note: Prior to the season, Oakland’s projected win total was set at 59.5. Days into April, that season win total plummeted to just 52 (-115). Nevada undoubtedly can’t wait to claim the Oakland Athletics as their own I am sure.
We are not yet 20% of the way into the 2023 season, and so it is possible what some may see as reliable trends are simply short-lived streaks. If you are thinking these streaks are actually the beginning of season-long trends, the Futures Market may be calling you. Otherwise, pay attention daily to teams and what makes them tick…or not tick in the moment and bet accordingly.
Enjoy the games and enjoy the sweat.
