Long before the 2020 season started, bookmakers expected big things for the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees. Their win totals were ungodly high, World Series future prices were sub 4-to-1 and there was even a bet at the Westgate SuperBook: Dodgers and Yankees +125 against The Field -145 to win it all.
So it’s no surprise that both teams have gotten off to rip roaring starts. But while Los Angeles (17-and-7) and New York (16-and-6) have slugged their way to the top of the standings, betting them daily on the moneyline hasn’t really been all that profitable. According to Rotoworld’s Edge Finder, a $100 bettor is up only $255 on Dodger games and $287 on Yankee games.
That’s because one Clayton Kershaw or Gerrit Cole loss can set you back almost three units alone. Oddsmakers know that bettors love their favorites and it’s no secret that the public teams are always juiced a little bit higher.
“Well, there’s less action during the week than there is on the weekend,” CG Technology oddsmaker and risk analyst Dave Sharapan explained to NBC Sports. “On the weekends, you’re going to see what we call the ‘L.A. tax’ as we joke in the room. There’s lots of traffic from Los Angeles. There’s an extra tax on those teams. And you can put the Yankees in that group too because they’re a very public team and obviously, they win. We have to be more price sensitive, so those teams are definitely shaded up.”[[ad:athena]]
One avenue that has been extremely profitable in 2020 is betting the Dodgers and Yankees on the run line. For those that aren’t familiar, you get a much better payout, but the favorite has to win the game by more than 1.5 runs. If the Yankees are a -190 favorite, their run line price is around +130. If the Dodgers are a -260 favorite, their run line price is around -135.
“Obviously, the plus price is most appealing,” Sharapan added. “It’s way more fun to bet 20 dollars and win another 26 on top of it as opposed to betting 20 dollars to win 10 bucks. I would say your average person probably bets [a 70-30 ratio] regular moneyline bets to run line bets. It’s not done as much as you would guess, but the run lines are definitely popular with the parlay players.”
Believe it or not, the Yankees are 17-and-5 on the run line this year. 15 of their 16 wins have come by two runs or more and they also covered the run line once as an underdog in Tampa. The Dodgers check in at 15-and-9.
Those two teams are too complete and too deep to just squeak by in games. When they win, they really pour it on. Their run differentials (NYY +38, LAD +62) don’t lie either. This run line angle is definitely something worth monitoring over the final 35 games.
Your bankroll will thank you later.
