I hate when a line moves against my side. It’s not ideal and honestly, it makes me nervous.
That said, there comes a time when you have to stick to your guns. Especially when you get a cheaper price than originally expected.
The Chicago Cubs lost as -135 road favorites last night in Detroit 7-1. The Tigers jumped on Tyler Chatwood early and Jose Quintana in the middle. It was their fifth home win in 15 tries. Blind squirrel, meet nut.
So when the markets started popping this morning, the Cubs were around a -140 favorite with Jon Lester (2-1, 5.06 ERA) against Michael Fulmer (0-0, 9.53 ERA). That number now sits at Chicago -120 or -125 around the country.[[ad:athena]]
It’s not really too surprising considering the analytics guys have been betting against Lester for years. They don’t like his advanced metrics, namely his xFIP, which is fielding independent pitching. xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. Lester’s xFIP has been unfavorable with the “wise guys” since 2018.
Situationally though, I think this is a good spot for both Lester and the Cubs. The southpaw has been rather solid over the years after horrendous starts and he’ll be chomping at the bit after allowing four homers to the White Sox on Friday night. Chicago’s offense will have a much easier time against Fulmer, who can’t stay out of his own way.
Fulmer hasn’t made it out of the third inning in any of his four starts. His pitch counts have been extremely high and his WHIP is already a career-worst 1.32. I totally understand that he’s got good stuff and he can throw a gem here and there, but I’ll take my chances.
Also, Lester has been Jekyll and Hyde this year with his home and road splits. He’s been atrocious at home (3 starts, 22 hits, 8.04 ERA) and amazing on the road (2 starts, 3 hits, 0.82 ERA). We get him pitching away from Wrigley Field tonight against a lineup filled with younger or unproven players.
This line may be fishy, but I find it too cheap to pass up. I’m betting on both Lester and the Cubs’ offense to bounce back in Detroit.
Play on the Cubs -120.
