Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Starting pitchers
Huascar Ynoa RHP (0-0, 4.32 ERA) vs Jake Arrieta RHP (2-3, 4.32 ERA)
The Braves are sending second-year pitcher Huascar Ynoa to the bump for the series finale. Ynoa has not pitched more than three innings this year across four games (two starts) and has not thrown more than 48 pitches in an outing. Ynoa is a raw prospect that can touch upper-90s with his fastball (60 grade) and mixes in a heavy breaking pitch. It will be a bullpen day for the Braves, whose relievers have a solid 3.20 ERA this year.
The Phillies are 2-3 SU and 2-1-2 O/U when Jake Arrieta has started this year. The Phillies right-hander is coming off a five-inning start where he allowed just one earned run on three hits versus the Nationals. Arrieta threw just 54 pitches in the start thanks to some rain, but has also thrown more than 80 pitches in just one of his five starts.
Weather
There is a zero percent chance of precipitation for Sunday’s match with mid-70s temperatures and a light wind blowing in from left field. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Injuries
Braves: Adam Duvall OF (day-to-day), Ozzie Albies 2B (out)
Phillies: Jay Bruce OF (out)
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over has hit in seven of the Braves’ last games nine games when facing a team with a .500 record or worse. The Over is also 2-0-1 in Arrieta’s last three starts. Find the latest betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies.
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Moneyline Pick
The season series has been pretty even with the Phillies taking five of nine games, but the favorite has dominated going 8-1 SU and covering -1.5 in six of those wins. Arrieta is 6-3 SU lifetime versus the Braves with a 2.96 ERA including six shutout innings back on August 8.
The Atlanta offense hasn’t scored more than four runs over its last six road games but a date with the Phillies’ bullpen could help cure its road bats. We see this game getting decided in the later innings, and with Atlanta having scored 21 runs against the Philly bullpen over the last 20 innings, we like riding the away team on Sunday. The Braves look to avoid the sweep — something Philly hasn’t done since the first three games of 2019.
PREDICTION: Atlanta ML (+110)
Over/Under Pick
The Phillies launched three homers on Friday and another on Saturday as the offense is hot and sits first in the league at 5.74 runs per game. Both offenses sit near the top of most offensive categories, which is good news for Over backers as the Philadelphia defense has allowed the third-most runs per game and are giving up 1.61 homers per match — also the third-most. The Braves hit right-handed pitching much better than LHP, as their .272 average versus righties is 70 points higher than when facing southpaws.
The Phillies’ bullpen has been a train wreck this year and holds a 7.85 ERA. That plays nicely with the Over, especially if Arrieta only throws 80 pitches and hands things over to the relievers early. Atlanta’s bullpen is solid (3.43 ERA) but with 6 2-3 innings pitched on Friday and 3 2-3 on Saturday, not every arm may be available for Sunday’s contest.
PREDICTION: Over 9.5 (+100)
High-Scoring Period Prop Pick
With how bad the Philadelphia bullpen has been and how hard the Atlanta bats have torched them, we’re expecting a few runs in the later innings. There are a few markets we can look at to match our predictions. The most obvious being a live Over bet on the game total later in the game, but digging into some other lesser-known markets finds us some good value.
‘Team with the highest-scoring inning’ is usually a plus-money play thanks to it being a 3-way bet on most books, while the ‘highest-scoring period’ market gives great odds for more runs being scored after the fifth inning than the first five frames. With the use of the Atlanta bullpen in the series’ first two games, we are banking on some late runs.
PREDICTION: Highest-Scoring Period - Rest of the game (=190)
Braves vs Phillies betting card
- Atlanta ML (+110)
- Over 9.5 (+100)
- Highest Scoring Period - Rest of the game (+190)
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