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We’ve made it to Wednesday, and as a hump day reward we have a massive slate of games to bet on the diamond. Here are my two favorites.
Cincinnati Reds (+115) vs. Cleveland Guardians (-136) Total: 8
The Cincinnati Reds have been a laughing stock all year long, but over the last two weeks things have gotten ever-so-slightly better for them. They rank 11th in the league over that span with a 110 wRC+ and that number should only improve here on Wednesday night against the very hittable Cal Quantrill.
Quantrill has an extremely-low 14% strikeout rate this season with a .269 expected batting average against on his cutter and a .294 xBA on his sinker. Those are not very good numbers for a guy who is trying to get outs via contact!
The Reds should manage to score runs here against Quantrill, and on the other side of the coin I’m not sure how many the Guardians come away with here against Tyler Mahle. The righty has done a good job of limiting bad contact with a 3.56 xERA and Cleveland has swung a lot. This one tips towards Cincinnati for me, so I’ll take the Reds at plus money.
Edge: Reds +115
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Houston Astros (-140) vs. Boston Red Sox (+120) Total: 9
Another day, another bet on Astros-Red Sox. This time, I see the side rather clearly. The Red Sox will be up against one of the best young arms in the American League, and the Astros will face Nick Pivetta.
By now, we know who Pivetta is. We know better than to get fooled by a couple of good starts in a row. The righty has allowed a hard-hit rate over 50%, meaning at least one of every two balls off the bat travel 95 mph or faster. He’s also walked almost 10% of batters, compounding the issues with hard-hit balls.
Houston is seventh in walk rate, top-three in all the expected stats and second in wRC+. It should have no issues at all taking full advantage of Pivetta. The Red Sox, on the other hand, are just 15th in xwOBA and have lacked quality at the plate all year long. Garcia has a strikeout rate near 28% and will punish a team struggling a bit with strikeouts at the moment.
Edge: Astros -140
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