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We have a great slate of baseball on Thursday, bringing us one step closer to the weekend and delivering us some enjoyment as we get through the penultimate weeknight. I’ve got my eyes on a couple of plays and will get to them now.
Eduardo Rodriguez (+135) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-160) Total: 7.5
It’s going a lot better for the Red Sox, who have won six of 10 and picked things up at the dish. A 116 wRC+ has them seventh in baseball over the last two weeks, and a 9.4% walk rate coupled with a 21.4% strikeout rate accent just how great this team has been at the dish after falling asleep after the trade deadline.
With come confident bats coming out here against Shane McClanahan, I like Boston’s chances. McClanahan has a bright future in the league, but a 4.59 xERA, a .421 xwOBA on contact and some horrendous exit velocity and barrel numbers give you pause whenever backing him. He has some kinks he has work out, and that puts him in a fadeable position on nights like Thursday.
With the Red Sox being patient and not striking out, I don’t think McClanahan will be afforded the strikeouts that help him through starts without a ton of damange. With some runs on the board, the Red Sox can take this one behind Eduardo Rodriguez, who will face one of the worst teams in baseball against lefties.
Edge: Red Sox +135
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Atlanta Braves (-160) vs. Colorado Rockies (+135) Total: 12.5
Both the Braves and the Rockies are down near the bottom of the league in offensive production over the last two weeks, so that makes a total this high an automatic fade, right?
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Well, no. The thing is, for as much as these offenses have struggled, the pitchers on both sides have struggled more. We have Touki Toussaint going for the visitors, and all he’s done this year is post one of the worst hard-hit rates in the league at 47.7%. Considering that mark, and his gaudy expected ERA which is a full run higher than his real ERA, I’d say this could be a nightmare for Toussaint. Coors Field will unearth any flaws you may have under the surface, and his past struggles with walks could bite him against a Rockies team that has been patient lately.
As for the Braves, they get to face a pitcher with even worse exit velocity and barrel numbers, and while they haven’t been great lately they have posted a respectable .174 ISO over the last two weeks with 17 homers and are third in barrel rate. I think both offenses should get right with this matchup.
Edge: Over 12.5
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