MLB K Props, October 21st: Braves vs Dodgers
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Max Fried O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Dodgers
Max Fried takes the mound for the second time versus the Dodgers and this time to close out this series.
With a familiar chance to advance, the Braves will likely be cautious with Fried. Last season, the Dodgers won three straight games to beat the Braves and go to the World Series.
We face the same situation and Fried will be tasked with the road start in Game 5 of the NLCS.
NBC’s model projects Fried to go 3.0 innings and I do not see him going past 5.0 innings. Fried went 6.0 innings and recorded five strikeouts on 81 pitches and zero walks versus the Dodgers. He allowed eight hits and two earned runs.
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Fried averages 5.6 strikeouts in games of 5.0 innings or fewer and 4.3 at 4.2 innings or less. The Dodgers will be after Fried and look to score runs after getting eight hits off him, but only two earned runs (one home run).
Despite being an excellent pitcher, Fried does not have the best strikeout, whiff and chase rate percentiles per baseballsavant.com. He ranks in the 51st, 36th and 40th percentiles.
He also throws the fastball and sinker 50% of the time and you can expect L.A. to key on the fastball.
The Braves could opt to save Fried for a Game 7 with Charlie Morton likely on deck with short rest for Game 6, if needed. It’s hard to see what they will do with a limited rotation, but Fried will have his toughest challenge of the season today.
With this being an NL game, Fried could be pulled for a pinch-hitter with this being a closeout game -- providing value to the Under on his strikeouts.
I played the Under 4.5 Ks at -125 and would play it to -150.
Pick: Max Fried Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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