The MVP race appears to be wide-open with the Los Angeles Angels’ Mike Trout out (calf strain) for the next 6-8 weeks, or is it?
The Angels’ Shohei Ohtani has taken complete control of the AL MVP race, now pitted at +125 odds. To start the season, a $25 bet on Ohtani would have paid out $1,000! Yes, $1,000 at +4000 odds on February 4th!
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Well, if you are late to the party, Ohtani’s odds are now +125, paying out $31.25 on a $25 bet. Wow.
So, how do you bet the AL MVP and is it a runaway for the two-way superstar in Ohtani? Well, first off, this can be a runaway if he remains healthy.
Ohtani leads the entire MLB in home runs with 14 on the season while sporting 40 strikeouts in 25.2 innings with a 1-0 record and 2.10 ERA. The Japanese superstar has gone 5.0 or more innings in his last three games and totaled seven-plus strikeouts in all five starts.
If he plays an entire season, there is no reason why Ohtani will not put up 30-plus home runs with 100-plus strikeouts. Ohtani also joined Babe Ruth in history (1921) as the two players in the last 100 years to start a game pitching while also leading the league in homers.
Historic. We may never see it again.
Outside of Ohtani at +125, who else is out there with appealing value?
Two popular teams that will have priority attention in the media are the Red Sox and Yankees. [[ad:athena]]
The Red Sox’s J.D. Martinez (+1200), Xander Bogaerts (+1800) and Giancarlo Stanton (+3300) all present value.
Stanton’s odds have reached as high as +2000 during his hot streak in which he had 12 straight games with a hit, 25 total with six HRs and 11 RBIs.
Stanton is currently on the injured list but hopes to be back May 25th. If so, you can wait and grab his odds at a better price. If he continues mashing, he could be a decent hedge behind the two Red Sox hitters.
Martinez and Bogaerts both have value alone suiting up for Red Sox, who have the second-most wins in the AL.
Bogaerts is hitting .342 with 26 RBIs and nine homers in 41 games thus far. Martinez is hitting similar numbers in the same amount of games, a .333 average along with 33 RBIs and 10 HRs.
Both players present value compared to where their odds opened. Martinez opened at +5000 this season and ended at +1600 in April. Bogaerts opened at +4000 and dipped as low as +5000 on May 7th.
Since May 7th, Bogaerts has 11 hits, eight RBIs and three HRs in 10 games. Both present value, but Martinez might be the better pick for this reason.
Martinez’s odds at fourth-best are not reflecting his recent streak of not being able to hit the long ball. Martinez has hit one homer in May after hitting nine in April. When his bat comes around, expect his odds to start rising and surpass +1000 and Trout as a top-three favorite.
I would grab J.D. Martinez as a hedge at +1200 if you bet Ohtani already or as a value selection if Ohtani does go down with an injury. Mike Trout‘s listed at +1000, which is always great value too, but this MVP is Ohtani’s to lose.
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