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Happy conclusion of the first half of the MLB season! Not only is there the typical Sunday slate of games, but we are also given the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game, the beginning of the MLB Draft, and, in my opinion, the much underrated Celebrity Softball Game. Although, I won’t be analyzing who will be going yard today in the Celebrity Softball Game.
Starlin Castro to get 1+ hit
Starlin Castro is currently riding a 13-game hit streak: watch out Joe DiMaggio. Castro just needs to repeat this streak 3-4 more times to tie DiMaggio’s nearly impossible 56-game hit streak. In addition to Castro’s current hit streak, he has one or more hits in 19 of his last 21 games. During this 21-game stretch, he has bolstered his average from .233 all the way up to .277. That is an incredible jump considering we are at the halfway mark of the season. Over the span of his 13-game hit streak, he has produced 20 hits in 44 at-bats for a .455 batting average. In the month of July, he owns a BAbip of .471. Per baseballsavant.com, Castro has been well above league average in xwOBA in his last 50 plate appearances and has clearly ascended over his last 100 PA. (he’s had 52 PA in the last 13 games).
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Matchup:
Castro and the Nationals are squaring off today against the All-Star right-hander Kevin Gausman of the San Francisco Giants. Gausman is second in MLB with a 1.74 ERA, third with a .80 WHIP, and 15th with 124 strikeouts. For a deeper analysis on Gausman and today’s matchup, check out my colleague Vaughn’s article.
Castro has the benefit of many career matchups against Gausman. Castro owns 11 hits in 42 career at-bats against Gausman for a .262 average. Many of these showdowns came in the 2016 and 2017 seasons as AL East foes when Gausman pitched for the Orioles and Castro was with the Yankees. That said, Gausman faced off against the Nationals just under a month ago. This was Gausman’s shortest start of the season having completed just four innings while giving up three hits and two earned runs. Although, this was a seven-inning game as it was game one of a doubleheader. Gausman is certainly not an easy matchup for Castro, but given Castro’s incredible offensive run, he should be given consideration.
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According to NBC’s model, Castro is projected for 1.30 hits today with -250 odds to get one or more hits. Also to note, Castro is forecasted to drive in .76 runs with +150 odds which is deemed an “excellent” value according to the model. Castro has 3 home runs and 38 RBI on the season. He has one or more RBI in six of his last 13 games.
Pick: Starlin Castro to get 1+ hit
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