The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!
Yu Darvish O/U 6.5 Strikeouts vs. Nationals
Yu Darvish continues to be a stud this season as one of the Padres’ best pitchers. Coming off his first loss since 6/9/21, Darvish faces a Nationals team that will toss Max Scherzer opposite of him.
As the final game of Thursday’s MLB slate, this could be the most entertaining along with having the highest combined strikeout total.
Darvish has been dealing this season and is currently tied-14th for total strikeouts (123) -- only seven Ks back of fifth place.
The former Rangers’, Cubs’ and Dodgers’ pitcher is 7-3 this season with a 2.65 ERA (15th), 0.95 WHIP (9th) and 10.9 strikeouts per 9 innings (T-13th).
Darvish has cashed the Over 6.5 strikeouts in three straight starts and four of the past five entering this contest.
Per NBC’s model, Darvish is projected to record 7.6 strikeouts in 7.0 innings versus the Nationals, hitting the Over.
NBC Sports Edge’s player prop projections also rolled out its new hit rate charts for player props. Here is a look at Darvish’s and what he has done this season when pitching 6.0 or more innings.
The ace has hit the Over 6.5 strikeouts in 7-of-8 (88%) home starts at 6.0 innings and 9-of-11 (82%) on the season. Darvish has a hit rate of 59% at any inning amount to the Over 6.5 Strikeouts (10/17) in 2021 and 73% at home (8/11).
Editor’s Note: Get an edge with our premium Betting Tools that are packed with live odds, betting trends, predictions, player prop projections, our extensive Edge Finder and much more. And don’t forget to use promo code SAVE10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
[[ad:athena]]
The Nationals are currently striking out at a 24.6% rate to RHP over the last 30 days (8th-highest) compared to 23% on the season. In the past 15 days, Washington struck out 119 times in 15 games (7.93 per game).
Over the last seven days and seven games, the Nats have only struck out 46 times in seven games (6.5 per game).
They have played the Padres and Dodgers in those previous seven. While that is impressive and appears to be a clear Under against Darvish, look at the starting pitchers Washington has faced in that span.
In order: Victor Gonzalez, Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw, Garrett Cleavinger, Erick Fedde, Jon Lester and Patrick Corbin. I cannot imagine most teams sticking out much against anyone outside of Kershaw.
The majority of those outings saw spot starters or the guys like Gonzalez and Fedde get dominated in the first inning and exit.
Darvish should last at least 5.0 innings, something he has done in nine straight starts and 15 out of 17 in 2021 (88.2%).
When Darvish goes 5.0 innings, he has cashed the Over 6.5 Ks in 10-of-15 (66.6%) starts and 10-of-12 (83%) at 5.2 innings or more.
Over his last few starts, Darvish has increased his swing & miss % to over 30% in the last start and his chase %, which an be seen below per baseballsavant.com. That was the seventh game of 30% or better, while he kept his chase miss % above 50% for the third consecutive start.
Darvish’s numbers have been solid all season, and backing him at home to the Over has been profitable. At home, Darvish is 5-2 in 11 starts with a 2.12 ERA and OBA of .196 to go along with 88 strikeouts in 68.0 innings (1.29 per inning).
At night, Darvish’s numbers are also impressive. He has posted a 2.02 ERA, a 6-1 record in 10 starts, an OBA of .167 and 82 strikeouts in 62.1 innings pitched (1.32 per inning).
In the last 25 games against RHP, the Nationals have only allowed nine to go for 6.0 innings or more. When those pitchers did, they were 7-2 to the Over 6.5 strikeouts (77.8%), per statmuse.
Darvish’s 6.5 is a solid play versus a Washington team that has not faced many strikeout pitchers as of late.
Pick: Yu Darvish Over 6.5 Strikeouts (1u)
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner, and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.
