The new UFC Fight Night main event is a catchweight matchup between Islam Makhachev and Bobby Green. King Bobby Green steps in for Beneil Dariush who was forced to pull out of this fight vs Islam Makhachev due to injury. Islam Makhachev vs Beneil Dariush was a title eliminator matchup which would have put the winner in prime position to square off with the winner of Lightweight Champion Charles Oliveira and Justin Gaethje. Bobby Green fought Nasrat Haqparast just three weeks ago to earn a three-round unanimous decision win in a fight that played out on the feet. Bobby Green is an excellent striker but he will need to display his wrestling and grappling skills in this matchup vs Islan Makhachev.
The Skillset of Islam Makhachev
Islam Makhachev currently has a nine-fight win streak. His career is taking a similar trajectory as his coach Khabib Nurmagomedov minus that one blemish on his record. Makhachev is a dominant MMA grappler. He will keep himself at a safe distance on the feet and look to ground his opponent with a well-timed double leg takedown. Once the fight hits the ground with Makhachev in top control he advances position and looks for a submission. Makhachev is a southpaw and a capable striker on the feet. He is the master at deceptively disguising his takedown attempt. He’ll often move forward with a right hook or left hook to get his opponent to defend the strike and raise their hands. Once their hands are up, Islam will switch to a takedown attempt and wrap both hands around his opponent’s waist for a double leg takedown. His top game is suffocating so he will ride out top control for the remainder of the round and pursue that aforementioned submission.
The Skillset of Bobby Green
Bobby Green is a superb boxer. He is introduced as a muay Thai kickboxer. Green never takes a clean shot to the head when striking. His head movement and shoulder roll keep him safe. His defensive striking allows him to frustrate his opponents and score at the same time. Green has a wrestling background dating back to his high school wrestling career. He is also a blue belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He hasn’t been submitted since 2009 vs Dan Lauzon.
Bobby Green has nothing to lose in this fight. He is stepping in on three weeks’ notice with a huge opportunity to upset Islam Makhachev in the main event.
Bobby Green is on a mission 😤 #UFCVegas49 pic.twitter.com/zm10gxzejM
— ESPN MMA (@espnmma) February 22, 2022
The Stats
- Bobby Green averages 5.93 strikes landed per minute, Islam Makachev averages 2.21 strikes landed per minute
- Islam Makhachev averages 3.37 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a 66% takedown accuracy
- Bobby Green has a 72% takedown defense
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Picking a Winner
My pick to win the Main Event:
- Islam Makhachev
My preferred bet for the Main Event:
- Prop: Islam Makhachev to win in rounds 3 or 4 (+400)
Islam Makhachev is going to win this fight. He is going to get this fight to the ground so my analysis leads me to ponder how safe Bobby Green can stay on the ground with Islam Makhachev in top control. Bobby has been taken down in his UFC career but usually is able to power his way back up. In his bout vs Thiago Moises, Bobby Green is picked up and slammed by Moises. Bobby gave up his back and blasted up to his feet and earned top control in the process. Bobby Green will not be that lucky if he gives his back to Islam Makhachev.
Islam Makhachev is coming off three straight victories by submission. He was able to finish Dan Hooker via submission in his last fight in round one. He should be looking to finish Bobby Green early in this fight, most likely by submission. Bobby Green has the ability to use movement in the octagon and strike while keeping his hands low which may prolong this fight on the feet. Bobby Green is tough as nails but he will be trying to cut upwards of 30 pounds for the second time in three weeks. Bobby’s gas tank will succumb under the constant pressure of Islam Makhachev’s grappling.
🚨🚨 UFC Vegas 49 Stats!! 🚨🚨
— UncleWeezyMMA (@MmaWeezy) February 19, 2022
Hot off the presses, here are the lifetime UFC stats for all 24 fighters on the UFC Vegas 49 slate and the side by side stats for all 12 fights on the UFC card. Let's stack cashed tickets like flapjacks!#UFCVegas49 https://t.co/xC0Ru6svpj
