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The grudge match between Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal is without question the headline of UFC 272. Tonight’s card at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, however, features far more than the highly publicized welterweight battle. NBC Sports EDGE writers Steven Ricciardi and Ike Feldman have individually broken down the card over the course of the past week. Their research and experience puts them on opposite sides of five fights.
Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal (Welterweight)
Ricciardi: Colby Covington is in the driver’s seat in this matchup vs Jorge Masvidal. He has superior cardio and will use that advantage by forcing the grappling exchanges. Covington averages over four takedowns per 15 minutes and over twelve takedowns attempted. Colby pressures with his striking which leads into those grappling exchanges. Masvidal does not have the defensive grappling skills to stay on his feet.
Feldman: If the UFC 272 press-conference was any indication of what we can expect tonight, we are in for one tense and emotional five-round main event. This is one of the most toxic rivalries that we have seen in years. Masvidal looks to be in the best shape of his career. Mindset is equally as important as any physical attribute. Masvidal will fend off takedowns (Covington’s best chance to win), stay focused on the task at hand, and make this a necessary bloody brawl en route to getting his hand raised.
Edson Barboza vs. Bryce Mitchell (Featherweight)
Feldman: This is truly a throwback fight to the early UFC days where fighters had one skill set that tremendously outshined their others. Barboza is as scary as it comes in the stand-up portion of MMA with his dynamic arsenal of kicks. On the other side, Mitchell is one of the most jiu-jitsu centric fighters on the planet. Mitchell will not dominate and suck the life out of Barboza like we saw at UFC 219 against Khabib, but when Mitchell gets this fight to the floor, he will most certainly dictate the action. Mitchell will get the job done and continue climbing in the featherweight division.
Ricciardi: Edson Barboza is a superior striker compared to Bryce Mitchell. Bryce is going to need a takedown early in round one to slow Barboza’s striking pressure. I love Bryce’s effort and relentless approach to his fights. Bryce will put Barboza’s 78% takedown defense to the test. This fight will stay on the feet long enough for Barboza to inflict enough damage to win this fight.
Serghei Spivac vs. Greg Hardy (Heavyweight)
Ricciardi: This fight is Hardy early or Spivak late. Greg Hardy has power in his hands and cut weight to hit the UFC Heavyweight limit. He will be the bigger fighter and more powerful. However, Hardy also has gas tank issues when you can make him grapple. Spivak will look to grapple early and often. Spivak should be able to secure the takedown in round two, but this fight could get interesting in round one if Hardy can keep this fight at punching distance. Spivak should finish this fight late by submission or ground and pound.
Feldman: This is a crossroads fight for both men. Hardy has lost two-straight fights via knockout while Spivak is coming off a blowout loss to heavyweight prospect Tom Aspinall. I really expect Hardy to focus, avoid placating the crowd, and showcase why he should be considered more than a journeyman. It will not be easy and Spivak has more years of martial arts experience under his belt, but as we have seen with each passing fight, Hardy is a quick study. He knows he must win. I expect a more patient and methodical Hardy, using lots of jabs and distance control to take a split-decision.
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Brian Kelleher vs Umar Nurmagomedov (Featherweight)
Feldman: This a tall task in front of the scrappy and always game, Brian Kelleher, as he faces Khabib’s cousin and undefeated UFC prospect, Umar Nurmagomedov. I am leaning towards Kelleher with a huge upset! Kelleher has a full toolbox in terms of skills and abilities, but he is yet to have a signature win. Kelleher’s most efficient weapon has been his guillotine choke and it would not be a Nurmagomedov fight without some good old Dagestani wrestling attempts – exactly what will present a choke opportunity for Kelleher to notch the biggest win in his career.
Ricciardi: Umar Nurmagomedov is going to use his grappling to get this fight to the ground. He should lock up a submission victory if he can stay out of Brian Kelleher’s guillotine. Kelleher is slick on the ground, but he is facing a superior grappler in this matchup.
Dustin Jacoby vs Michael Oliksiejczuk (Light Heavyweight)
Ricciardi: Dustin Jacoby is a very good kickboxer and stays safe in his fights. He did a tremendous job keeping distance vs Ion Cutelaba and I believe he won that fight by decision. Michael pressures forward and strikes but that plays into the counter-striking ability of Dustin Jacoby. Jacoby will stay safe early in this fight in the striking exchanges and is live for a finish late. Keep an eye out for a live betting opportunity if you can get plus money on Jacoby after round one.
Feldman: Poland’s own, Oleksiejczuk, returns to the cage against Dustin Jacoby, who mirrors his two-fight win-streak as well as the comfortability to stand and trade blows on the feet. Bursting on the scene in his first few UFC fights by displaying heavy hands and smooth boxing skills, Oleksiejczuk was then thrown a few grapplers in his path and failed as he lost back-to-back fights via submissions. He is back on track now and is facing a very favorable matchup in Dustin Jacoby. The Polish Power will make his presence felt on the body and face of Jacoby. Oleksiejczuk will out-box his way to a split-decision victory.
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