Southern 500 Latest Lines: Kevin Harvick is a big mover

Line Moves

For the top five drivers this week, opening odds were close to where they sat midday Saturday, which indicated that the betting volume was about what the PointsBet Sportsbook traders anticipated. Most of them have significantly different lines than they experience this spring, however, and that shows the journey they’ve taken in 2021.

Kyle Larson (+300) showed odds of +420 in the spring and given how well he has performed since then, it was no surprise that he dropped nearly 100 points to open the week. That apparently wasn’t enough and a relatively minor adjustment of 25 additional points were shaved off his total by Saturday. If the betting volume is high enough, he could drop below the 3/1 mark. It’s unlikely that his line will increase, so if you’re going to bet on him, don’t wait for Sunday morning.

Traders were enthusiastic about Martin Truex Jr. (+560) on Monday. As the most recent winner on this track, they adjusted his betting line 185 points from where he landed before the Goodyear 400. He earned a perfect Driver Rating for that race and dominated, but he has not been overly impressive since. Early money did not come in as expected and oddsmakers needed to add 35 points to help sweeten the pot Saturday morning. That seemed to work as he dropped 15 points midday on Saturday.
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Enthusiasm was high for Denny Hamlin (+625) at the start of the season. Along with Kevin Harvick, he was the class of the field during the 2020 regular season and the bonus points he earned with so many race and stage wins carried him all the way to the Championship Race. The 2021 season hasn’t played out the way he hoped, but even so he has had consistently low odds compared to the remainder of the field. This week, the volume of bets helped shave 25 points from his opening line.

By his opening and current odds ranking, we think Kyle Busch (+650) is one of the best values on the books. Larson’s domination of 2021 has skewed the reference point to how other drivers have run, so by comparison they each seem to have struggled a bit more than in actuality. Busch is in the midst of a lull with results in the back half of the pack in half of his last six races, but widen the search and he is batting .500 in regard to top-fives and is .667 for top-10 during the last 18 races (a rolling half season). He had 25 points taken off his line as well.

Chase Elliott (+1000) did not move at all this week, which was a bit of a surprise. In fact, with a line of +1100 for the Darlington spring race, traders have been consistent in 2021. Since the adjustments largely come as the result of the oddsmakers evaluating the volume of bets, it would seem that the line is appropriate. That doesn’t necessarily make it accurate. Elliott began to improve at Darlington last year and carried some of that momentum with him into this spring. With the playoffs upon us, we suspect he will do even better this week and challenge for the win.

The remainder of the top-10 ranked drivers this week experienced line moves of 100 or 200 points. Or at least they did at some point on Saturday; lines were shifting, literally as we wrote this piece.

Perhaps the most notable of these movements belonged to Kevin Harvick (+1100). He is a dark horse this week for the outright win – there is no question about that – but at nearly 10/1 to open, we expected a high volume of bets and that he would have some points shaved. Instead, the traders sweetened the pot by 200 points. On another book, you can find top-three odds of +290, which is of course a safer bet.

Joey Logano (+1600) was one of the drivers who flip-flopped on Saturday. He started the morning 200 points higher than he was on Monday and immediately switched back to his original line. Unfortunately, he and teammate Brad Keselowski (+1800) seem mired in some sort of malaise. Perhaps they have been waiting for the playoffs, but it’s probably best to evaluate them for a week or two before committing hard-earned resources.

If you are going to risk a unit or two on a Team Penske dark horse, Ryan Blaney (+2500) is ranked just outside the top 10 at Darlington this week and did not experience a line move. He’s struggled on this track, but has the momentum of back-to-back wins and a line of +330 for a top-five.

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Rank	Driver	Current Odds	Opening Odds	Change	Darlington Spring 2021
1.	Kyle Larson	300	325	-25	420
2.	Martin Truex, Jr.	560	540	20	725
3.	Denny Hamlin	625	650	-25	540
4.	Kyle Busch	650	675	-25	800
5.	Chase Elliott	1000	1000	0	1100
6.	Kevin Harvick	1100	900	200	725
7.	William Byron	1400	1500	-100	1800
8.	Joey Logano	1600	1600	0	1400
9.	Brad Keselowski	1800	1600	200	900
10.	Alex Bowman	2000	2200	-200	2200
11.	Ryan Blaney	2500	2500	0	2000
12.	Christopher Bell	3300	3300	0	2500
13.	Kurt Busch	4000	3500	500	4000
13.	Tyler Reddick	4000	4000	0	4000
15.	Matt DiBenedetto	8000	8000	0	5000
15.	Austin Dillon	8000	7000	1000	6000
17.	Aric Almirola	10000	9000	1000	9000
18.	Ross Chastain	12500	12500	0	25000
19.	Chris Buescher	20000	20000	0	15000
20.	Erik Jones	25000	25000	0	10000
20.	Daniel Suarez	25000	25000	0	15000
20.	Chase Briscoe	25000	25000	0	30000
23.	Ryan Newman	30000	30000	0	20000
23.	Bubba Wallace	30000	25000	5000	20000
25.	Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.	35000	30000	5000	20000
25.	Cole Custer	35000	35000	0	20000
27.	Michael McDowell	50000	50000	0	20000
27.	BJ McLeod	50000	50000	0	50000
27.	Ryan Preece	50000	50000	0	35000
27.	James Davison	50000	50000	0	50000
27.	Corey LaJoie	50000	50000	0	50000
27.	Joey Gase	50000	50000	0
27.	Cody Ware	50000	50000	0	50000
27.	Josh Bilicki	50000	50000	0	50000
27.	Justin Haley	50000	50000	0	50000
27.	Quin Houff	50000	50000	0	50000
27.	Anthony Alfredo	50000	50000	0	50000

Latest Lines for the Goodyear 400 (Darlington)
Ally 400 (Nashville)
Drydene 400 (Dover)