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Two accidents in the first half of the All-Star Race at Texas Motor Speedway radically altered the competitive landscape, but since these incidents swallowed up four of the drivers in our Power Rankings top-10, the net effect was minimal. It is unlikely these accidents will rob them of momentum, since this was an exhibition race, but it was interesting to determine exactly who the pundits believed should be the favorites after they hit the showers.
Kyle Larson as the pre-wreck favorite was unsurprising, and when he crashed in a single-car incident after cutting a tire, he called Kyle Busch the prohibitive choice to win – so long as he kept track position. Soon after Larson’s crash, Busch also cut a tire, and as he rapidly slowed on course, he was run over by Ross Chastain, who then collected Chase Elliott.
We had Larson, Busch, and Elliott all tagged as Best Bets last week, skipping over Chastain because he was beginning to slip down the Power Rankings order after Week 13, and frankly we had a couple of longshots that we believed would run well we wanted to highlight. But it is a testament to this organization that Chastain is beginning to be evaluated alongside the powerhouses. It is also no coincidence that his Trackhouse Racing teammate Daniel Suarez challenged for the lead late in the going and finished among the top five.
Top 10
1. Chase Elliott (Last week: 1)
Weeks in the top 10: 13
Weeks as #1: 7
Wins: 1 (Dover)
Power Average: 6.68
Elliott is one of the most self-effacing drivers in the field. He is prone to taking blame for anything that happens in the car, so we must take his comments while standing outside in the infield care center with a slight grain of salt. With that said, it was remarkable that he believed he might have avoided contact with Chastain by moving up a half-groove. If he is seeing things that slowly and clearly at race speeds – he ain’t like the rest of us.
2. Kyle Busch (Last week: 2)
Weeks in the top 10: 10
Wins: 1 (Bristol dirt)
Power Average: 7.46
Standing in front of the media after sustaining such a hard crash, when a driver had a car capable of domination and winning, must be the most difficult task in this sport. Busch was frustrated, angry, and distracted as he tersely responded to queries about the wreck – and he had every right to be. The silver lining is that he’s been running well in every race for the past 45 days and this accident, as well as his Darlington Raceway crash, will not slow him down.
3. Christopher Bell (Last week: 3)
Weeks in the top 10: 6
Power Average: 8.46
When four of the favorites crashed out of the All-Star Race early, the TV experts scrambled to decide who would inherit the mantel. Bell’s name was conspicuously absent and that may have been due to one or two factors. His relative lack of experience has not contributed to much success in this exhibition race with a pair of 11ths before this week’s 10th. Additionally, he’s been part of the Powerful 10 in less than half the season this year, so his current strength is not yet codified.
4. William Byron (Last week: 4)
Weeks in the top 10: 10
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 2 (Atlanta 1, Martinsville 1)
Power Average: 9.33
At various stages of the All-Star Race, Byron was a factor, but ultimately he slipped to 11th at the checkers. In four appearances in this event now, he’s landed in a narrow range of seventh to 12th with his worst performance coming on the short track of Bristol Motor Speedway. That suggests he will have a good set of notes this coming week in the Coke 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway, a track similarly-configured to Texas.
5. Kyle Larson (Last week: 6) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 13
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 1 (Auto Club)
Power Average: 9.84
Just when it seemed that most of Larson’s worst finishes were aging out of the formula, he sustained a blown engine at Darlington and a blown tire at Texas. When he stays out of trouble, he’s been stout with results of second through sixth in four of his last six starts, but this is not the same dominant driver we learned to expect on a weekly basis at the end of 2021.
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6. Ryan Blaney (Last week: 5) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 14
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 1 (All-Star)
Power Average: 9.97
Not all wins are created equal. Typically, we wouldn’t value an All-Star win the same way we do points’ paying races, but since Blaney had to win this one twice – while dealing with the distraction of trying to get his window net back in place after what turned out to be a premature celebration – we are inclined to say this will positively alter the trajectory of his near future. Blaney was unlike the calm, collected driver we usually see; at Texas, he was on the chip and had another chip on his shoulder.
7. Ross Chastain (Last week: 8) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 9
Wins: 2 (Talladega 2; COTA)
Power Average: 10.42
Battling with Blaney when Busch cut a tire, Chastain “guessed wrong” and tried to Dive beneath the No. 18 as Blaney took the high road. It was a spectacularly wrong decision that was probably the difference between winning his first All-Star Race and ending the night in the hauler. This was the third time in the past 45 days that Chastain experienced trouble and ended up at the back of the pack, but the remainder of his recent results have been seventh or better and most of them are top-fives.
8. Alex Bowman (Last week: 9) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 9
Wins: 1 (Las Vegas 1)
Power Average: 10.86
It was a little surprising that Bowman’s and Byron’s names were not bandied about when the pundits were looking for a new favorite. Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) has been one of the dominant organizations all year and it is not without merit that all four of their drivers are in the Power Rankings Top-10. In the past 45 days, the only time Bowman finished outside the top 12 was because of an accident in the car-killer at Darlington.
9. Martin Truex Jr. (Last week: 7) -2
Weeks in the top 10: 13
Power Average: 11.39
Currently there is a big gap between ninth and 11th in the Power Rankings, so unless Kevin Harvick, Erik Jones, or Austin Dillon dominate the Coke 600, Truex’s inclusion on this list is probably safe. He has been among the top 10 for all but one week this season, but that is more attributable to the parity NASCAR is experiencing than any raw strength shown by the No. 19.
10. Joey Logano (Last week: 10)
Weeks in the top 10: 14
Weeks as #1: 2
Wins: 1 (Darlington 1)
Power Average: 11.64
Unless Logano can reverse his fortune, he may well fall out of the top 10 in the coming weeks. His second-place finish at Martinsville Speedway and third on the Bristol dirt track are about to age out of the formula and then he will have to rely on his Darlington win and a top-five in the All-Star Race to counterbalance a 32nd at Talladega Superspeedway, a 29th at Dover Motor Speedway, and a 17th at Kansas Speedway.
Drivers outside the top 10 with wins: Austin Cindric (Daytona 1), Chase Briscoe (Phoenix 1), Denny Hamlin (Richmond 1), and Kurt Busch (Kansas 1)
Dropped from the Top 10
For the fourth consecutive week, no driver dropped out of the top 10. That is largely a factor of the increased parity among drivers who are typically on the cusp of this mark. The gap between 10th and 11th is about 2.81 points on average, but there is one driver who is rocketing up the order. Kurt Busch‘s win at Kansas and solid All-Star run offsets three results outside the top 25. If he can sustain his momentum, he could be among the top 10 in a couple of weeks.
Winners, Last 45 Days (Outright Odds to win)
All-Star Race, Ryan Blaney (+1000)
AdventHealth 400, Kurt Busch (+2000)
Goodyear 400, Joey Logano (+800)
Drydene 400, Chase Elliott (+650)
Geico 500, Ross Chastain (+3000)
Food City Dirt Race, Kyle Busch (+1600)
Blue-Emu 400, William Byron (+750)
Power Average, Last 45 Days
This | Driver | Power | Last | Difference |
1. | 6.68 | 1 | 0 | |
2. | 7.46 | 2 | 0 | |
3. | 8.46 | 3 | 0 | |
4. | 9.33 | 4 | 0 | |
5. | 9.84 | 6 | 1 | |
6. | 9.97 | 5 | -1 | |
7. | 10.42 | 8 | 1 | |
8. | 10.86 | 9 | 1 | |
9. | Martin Truex, Jr. | 11.39 | 7 | -2 |
10. | 11.64 | 10 | 0 | |
| ||||
11. | 14.45 | 11 | 0 | |
12. | 14.51 | 13 | 1 | |
13. | 14.61 | 12 | -1 | |
14. | 15.26 | 22 | 8 | |
15. | 15.31 | 17 | 2 | |
16. | 15.66 | 16 | 0 | |
17. | 16.53 | 21 | 4 | |
18. | 16.71 | 14 | -4 | |
19. | 16.74 | 18 | -1 | |
20. | 16.89 | 15 | -5 | |
21. | 17.75 | 25 | 4 | |
22. | 17.88 | 19 | -3 | |
23. | 19.33 | 23 | 0 | |
24. | 19.35 | 26 | 2 | |
25. | 19.41 | 20 | -5 | |
26. | 19.66 | 24 | -2 | |
27. | 21.13 | 27 | 0 | |
28. | 21.25 | 28 | 0 | |
29. | 23.82 | 36 | 7 | |
30. | 24.22 | 29 | -1 | |
31. | 24.60 | 31 | 0 | |
32. | 25.00 | 30 | -2 | |
33. | 25.03 | 35 | 2 | |
34. | 25.20 | 32 | -2 | |
35. | 25.35 | 33 | -2 | |
36. | 25.60 | 34 | -2 | |
37. | 26.55 | 37 | 0 | |
38. | 29.28 | 38 | 0 | |
39. | 30.30 | 39 | 0 | |
40. | 30.33 | 40 | 0 | |
41. | 30.61 | 41 | 0 | |
42. | 32.86 | 42 | 0 | |
43. | 33.68 | 43 | 0 | |
44. | 35.80 | 44 | 0 |
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2022, After Week 4 [Las Vegas 1]
2021, After Week 13 [Dover 1]
All-Star Race
