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The Coke 600 may have been the last hope that the NextGen car would become a little more predictable. Counting the All-Star event, we are now two races into the second half of the season. The exhibition race at Texas Motor Speedway is always unpredictable, but Charlotte Motor Speedway, especially with the extra 100 miles, should have been easier to handicap.
The difference in performance between practice and qualification as well as between qualification and the race was significant. The drivers and teams who were supposed to dominate struggled through portions of the race and no one could predict how the race would turn out even with 100 miles remaining.
Before his late-race accident, Ross Chastain was the closest to domination with an Average Running Position of 4.38. The next best driver was eventual winner Denny Hamlin with a 7.13. More interesting still was the mix among the top 10 in this category. Tyler Reddick, Chase Briscoe, Daniel Suarez, and Erik Jones make occasional appearances at the top of the board, but they are showing true strength.
In the run-up to a potential for more than 16 winners in the regular season, Reddick and Suarez had legitimate shots at claiming their first Cup races last week, so no one can rest on their laurels. In the Coke 600 – that sense of urgency certainly showed.
Top 10
1. Kyle Busch (Last week: 2) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 11
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 1 (Bristol dirt)
Power Average: 7.11
When you see drivers like Busch, Kyle Larson, and Chase Elliott spinning out on their own, you know just how much the NextGen car is on the ragged edge. After his mid-race incident. Busch’s setup seemed to go away, and it took a while for him to catch the leaders. When he did, he was one of the lucky drivers that escaped the overtime ‘Big One’ and almost stole a second victory on the season.
2. Christopher Bell (Last week: 3) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 7
Power Average: 7.66
Bell had an adventurous Coke 600. Each time he started to show speed, he’d scrape the wall and do enough damage to necessitate a pit stop. Considering that he was off the lead lap for a while in the final stage, it is remarkable how he posted the eighth-best Average Running Position and finished fifth in the race. He is the top-ranked, winless driver right now, but it’s difficult to predict he’ll win unless he starts to get rid of these peaks and valleys during the running of a race.
3. Kyle Larson (Last week: 5) +2
Weeks in the top 10: 14
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 1 (Auto Club)
Power Average: 8.68
Larson easily passed more cars than anyone on Sunday. He crashed in practice and failed to post a qualification lap. He easily came from the back of the field, but then spun during the race, got caught for pit road violations at least twice, and was on fire once. And yet, if not for a late caution that sent the race into overtime, he would have won back-to-back Coke 600s. That is perseverance.
4. Chase Elliott (Last week: 1) -3
Weeks in the top 10: 14
Weeks as #1: 7
Wins: 1 (Dover)
Power Average: 9.36
Elliott’s DNF last week was a TKO. He damaged his car after hitting the wall and spinning, but the team had a plan to fix his broken tie rod and get him back on track. As he tried to pull back on track to meet minimum speed, another caution waved and he failed to clear the damaged vehicle clock. We would have loved to see if the impromptu repair would have allowed him to contend, but his early departure was enough to drop him three spots down the rankings.
5. Ross Chastain (Last week: 7) +2
Weeks in the top 10: 10
Wins: 2 (Talladega 2; COTA)
Power Average: 9.59
Chastain was the most consistently strong driver at Charlotte last week, but along with Larson he gambled on two tires late in the race. Even without the overtime crash, that was not going to pay off as the two pre-caution leaders were being gobbled up in a hurry. Chastain’s Average Running Position and Driver Rating were significantly better than the competition, and domination like that build confidence.
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6. Martin Truex Jr. (Last week: 9) +3
Weeks in the top 10: 14
Power Average: 9.95
It’s amazing how falling out of the limelight affects a driver. Truex ran as well as most of the drivers in the Coke 600 and posted the ninth-best Average Running Position before finishing 12th, but his name rarely got called. He was on our radar screen all week because of his historic unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile track record. Along with teammate Bell, he is one of the 10 strongest drivers without a win in 2022 and we just don’t know when that will turn around.
7. Alex Bowman (Last week: 8) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 10
Wins: 1 (Las Vegas 1)
Power Average: 11.19
Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) dominated last year’s 600, but no one really knew what to expect with the NextGen car. Of the foursome, Bowman showed the least strength, but there are always fluctuations in a multi-car team and the No. 48 driver cares less for how he stacks up to his teammates than the rest of the competition. With a win in the books, and sitting above four other winners in the points, he’s safe for now – but he cannot afford to become complacent.
8. William Byron (Last week: 4) -4
Weeks in the top 10: 11
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 2 (Atlanta 1, Martinsville 1)
Power Average: 12.67
Until this week, Byron’s Power Ranking was positively impacted by his Martinsville Speedway win. That has aged out of the formula and the past 45 days run from the Bristol Motor Speedway dirt track through Charlotte. In that span, he has not cracked the top 10, but a few top-15s and erratic finishes for the drivers listed below him keep him from dropping out. Hamlin, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., and even Daniel Suarez are rising quickly. That could dislodge Byron, unless he gets a single-digit finish soon.
9. Joey Logano (Last week: 10) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 15
Weeks as #1: 2
Wins: 1 (Darlington 1)
Power Average: 12.68
Logano and teammate Ryan Blaney are clinging to the top 10 and frankly the only thing that have kept them in consideration is how difficult it has been for the other drivers to build and sustain momentum. Logano is often sluggish at this stage of the season and that hurts his odds of winning the championship, but there is still a long time to go in the regular season.
10. Ryan Blaney (Last week: 6) -4
Weeks in the top 10: 15
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 1 (All-Star)
Power Average: 12.75
Unless he finishes in the top-10 at WorldWide Technology Raceway, Blaney will almost certainly drop off this list next week. His All-Star win is not going to offset the remainder of his recent efforts, (all of which have been outside the top 10), once the Bristol dirt race ages out of the formula. Equally disappointing is that Blaney has finished worse than he qualified in all but one of his points’ paying races in the past 38 days.
Drivers outside the top 10 with wins: Denny Hamlin [2] (Richmond 1, Charlotte), Austin Cindric (Daytona 1), Chase Briscoe (Phoenix 1), and Kurt Busch (Kansas 1)
Dropped from the Top 10
For the fifth consecutive week, no driver dropped out of the top 10, but it is highly likely that will change after Gateway. With three consecutive top-fives to his credit, it would seem Hamlin has finally reversed his fortune and over the course of the next few weeks, four results outside the top 15 are going to age out of the formula.
Winners, Last 45 Days (Outright Odds to win)
Coke 600, Denny Hamlin (+1200)
All-Star Race, Ryan Blaney (+1000)
AdventHealth 400, Kurt Busch (+2000)
Goodyear 400, Joey Logano (+800)
Drydene 400, Chase Elliott (+650)
Geico 500, Ross Chastain (+3000)
Food City Dirt Race, Kyle Busch (+1600)
Power Average, Last 45 Days
This | Driver | Power | Last | Difference |
1. | 7.11 | 2 | 1 | |
2. | 7.66 | 3 | 1 | |
3. | 8.68 | 5 | 2 | |
4. | 9.36 | 1 | -3 | |
5. | 9.59 | 7 | 2 | |
6. | 9.95 | 9 | 3 | |
7. | 11.19 | 8 | 1 | |
8. | 12.67 | 4 | -4 | |
9. | 12.68 | 10 | 1 | |
10. | 12.75 | 6 | -4 | |
11. | 13.37 | 17 | 6 | |
12. | 13.47 | 20 | 8 | |
13. | 14.14 | 12 | -1 | |
14. | 14.84 | 11 | -3 | |
15. | 14.92 | 18 | 3 | |
16. | 15.44 | 22 | 6 | |
17. | 15.83 | 15 | -2 | |
18. | 16.66 | 13 | -5 | |
19. | 16.74 | 21 | 2 | |
20. | 17.42 | 14 | -6 | |
21. | 18.76 | 26 | 5 | |
22. | 18.88 | 16 | -6 | |
23. | 19.63 | 24 | 1 | |
24. | 19.64 | 23 | -1 | |
25. | 20.81 | 19 | -6 | |
26. | 21.16 | 25 | -1 | |
27. | 21.29 | 28 | 1 | |
28. | 22.17 | 29 | 1 | |
29. | 22.80 | 27 | -2 | |
30. | 23.97 | 30 | 0 | |
31. | 25.30 | 35 | 4 | |
32. | 25.47 | 31 | -1 | |
33. | 25.57 | 33 | 0 | |
34. | 25.60 | 36 | 2 | |
35. | 26.55 | 37 | 2 | |
36. | 28.20 | 32 | -4 | |
37. | 29.25 | 38 | 1 | |
38. | 30.30 | 39 | 1 | |
39. | 30.44 | 34 | -5 | |
40. | 30.47 | 41 | 1 | |
41. | 31.75 |
| NA | |
42. | 32.32 | 43 | 1 | |
43. | 32.36 | 42 | -1 | |
44. | 35.20 | 40 | -4 | |
45. | 35.80 | 44 | -1 |
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2022, After Week 4 [Phoenix 1]
After Week 8 [Martinsville 1]
2021, After Week 14 [COTA]
