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The past caught up for three drivers this week. Ryan Blaney, William Byron, and even last week’s winner Joey Logano have been hanging onto the top 10 by their fingernails, and since we consistently look at the last 45 days worth of, not only finishing results, but strength-based statistics, it is possible to run well in the most recent race and be found lacking over the long haul.
The drivers who displaced them are worthy to be considered top-10 contenders in a season where parity is changing everything. Denny Hamlin is one of just four drivers officially locked into the playoffs while Harvick took a hit in the points and is currently the first driver below the bubble. It would have been worse if the Enjoy Illinois 300 at World Wide Technology Raceway had featured a new winner.
And it could still be worse yet. Five drivers are currently in the playoffs based on points. Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr. are in the top five in points and have a little while before they need to worry. They are also capable of winning on any given Sunday. Christopher Bell is in the Power Rankings top 10, sits 10th in the points, and also has a good chance to win one of the next 11 races.
Aric Almirola, and Tyler Reddick are in a much more precarious situation. This is especially true because the series has four road course wild card events remaining on the regular schedule and there are two pack-racing lotteries at Atlanta Motor Speedway and Daytona International Speedway that can be literally be won by any of the top 30 drivers in the field.
Folks: The drama isn’t over yet.
Top 10
1. Kyle Busch (Last week: 1)
Weeks in the top 10: 12
Weeks as #1: 2
Wins: 1 (Bristol dirt)
Power Average: 7.16
Busch has come incredibly close to winning points’ paying races in the last 45 days with third-place finishes at Talladega Superspeedway and Kansas Speedway. His last two efforts netted second-place results at Charlotte Motor Speedway and Gateway – and in both of those events, he found himself up front in the closing laps before getting swallowed up by a driver who wanted and needed the victory more.
2. Ross Chastain (Last week: 5) +3
Weeks in the top 10: 11
Wins: 2 (Talladega 2; COTA)
Power Average: 7.38
Chastain certainly didn’t make any friends last week, but then again his job is to win races and not personality contests. The downside to his over-aggression at Gateway is that the drivers who typically battle at the front of the pack are learning how to race him – and the adage is true that they will race him like he does them. There are some spins coming in Chastain’s future and it could have a major impact, depending on when they happen.
3. Martin Truex Jr. (Last week: 6) +3
Weeks in the top 10: 15
Power Average: 7.70
Back-to-back, 20-something finishes for Truex aged out of this formula in the past two weeks, which contributed to his six position rise. Replacing those modest results are a 12th in the Coke 600 and sixth last week. He has only one top-five in the past 45 days, which will age out next week. If he does not replace his fifth from Talladega with an equally strong run at Sonoma Raceway, he may slip out of the top five because he’s here on consistency and not raw power.
4. Christopher Bell (Last week: 2) -2
Weeks in the top 10: 8
Power Average: 8.29
The past couple of weeks have been a breath of fresh air for drivers like Blaney, Truex, and Bell with repeat winners, but it will only take three unique victors from below the No. 20 in points to put him on the bubble. Lined up immediately below him in the standings are Aric Almirola, Tyler Reddick and Harvick and they are within 57 points. Bell has been running well, however, and including the All-Star race, he has a current six-race streak of top-10s. He’s a solid road course racers who could make some noise this week in Sonoma.
5. Kyle Larson (Last week: 3) -2
Weeks in the top 10: 15
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 1 (Auto Club)
Power Average: 9.44
The Enjoy Illinois 300 may well have been Larson’s worst effort in the past two seasons. The combination of new car and new track dropped him outside of the top 10 for the first time in quite a while, (when he was not impacted by crash damage of pit road mistakes). It’s okay to have an off day and Larson heads to a track type on which he scored three wins and five top-fives in seven starts, but it will pay to remember that he was only 29th at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA).
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6. Chase Elliott (Last week: 4) -2
Weeks in the top 10: 15
Weeks as #1: 7
Wins: 1 (Dover)
Power Average: 10.49
Elliott was one of three victims of Chastain last week and it came at a bad time for a driver who has spent the most time at the top of this list so far this season. In the last four weeks, (including the All-Star race), Elliott has finished outside the top 10 and his position in the top 10 is the result of a seventh at Talladega, his Dover Motor Speedway win, and a fifth at Darlington Raceway. He doesn’t need to win Sonoma, but he must have a strong run to protect his position on this list.
7. Denny Hamlin (Last week: 12) +5
Weeks in the top 10: 1
Wins: 2 (Richmond 1, Charlotte oval)
Power Average: 11.30
Hamlin was the first victim of Chastain at Gateway. The two drivers have history. When Hamlin’s spotter relayed a message from NASCAR last week saying he had made his point, after running Chastain onto the apron, Hamlin laughed. This isn’t over. Despite his poor 34th-place finish, Hamlin was elevated into the top 10 based on three consecutive top-fives that preceded it and because a 35th at the Bristol Motor Speedway dirt track aged out of the formula.
8 (tied). Kevin Harvick (Last week: 14) +6
Weeks in the top 10: 1
Power Average: 12.00
The need for a win is even greater for Harvick than it was at the start of the season. His well-documented winless streak that now stands at 58 races was a wound to his pride, but with three drivers below him in the standings with a win of their own this season, he is now on the outside looking in and in jeopardy of failing to make the playoffs for the first time since 2009. If that happens, he won’t be very “happy”.
8 (tied). Alex Bowman (Last week: 7) -1
Weeks in the top 10: 11
Wins: 1 (Las Vegas 1)
Power Average: 12.00
Bowman hasn’t finished badly during the past 45 days, but often his top-10s come after he runs mid-pack for much of the afternoon. Equally disappointing, he has only one top-five to his credit, which came in early May at Dover. Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) may have peaked at the wrong time, but there is still plenty of racing remaining until the playoffs begin and all four of them have wins. Better still, Bowman is nine spots up from the bubble with 11 regular season races remaining.
10. Erik Jones (Last week: 13) +3
Weeks in the top 10: 1
Power Average: 2.21
No one legitimately expects Jones to win, but that is what makes him so dangerous. His recent finishes tell only a small part of the story, but this is precisely why we track strength-based stats because if he can protect his track position late in the going in one of these next 11 races, he’s going to shake up the playoff picture. If that happens, it will be a big payday because his lowest line so far in 2022 was 30/1 and he’s been 50/1 in 13 races so far.
Drivers outside the top 10 with wins: William Byron [2] (Atlanta 1, Martinsville 1), Joey Logano [2] (Darlington 1, Gateway), Austin Cindric (Daytona 1), Chase Briscoe (Phoenix 1), Kurt Busch (Kansas 1), and Ryan Blaney (All-Star)
Dropped from the Top 10
11. William Byron (Last week: 8) -3
Weeks in the top 10: 11
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 2 (Atlanta 1, Martinsville 1)
Power Average: 12.94
Last week we noted that Byron was in a precarious situation and without any top-10s in the last 45 days, his luck ran out. He has only two points’ paying top-15s to his credit and that is costing him momentum. With 11 regular season races, he has time to pull out of this nosedive and he is one of four drivers who knows without any doubt they will be in the playoffs.
12. Ryan Blaney (Last week: 10) -2
Weeks in the top 10: 15
Weeks as #1: 1
Wins: 1 (All-Star)
Power Average: 13.00
Blaney’s fourth-place finish last week at Gateway was simply not enough to keep him in the Power Rankings top-10 because he was slightly stronger overall in the Bristol dirt race that aged out of the formula. He won’t stay out of the top of the order for long, however, because he has run uniformly well on a variety of track types. Blaney is the driver with the most championship points among those who are winless and that gives him a little breathing room, but Truex is on his bumper and Blaney is only five spots from the bubble right now.
13. Joey Logano (Last week: 10) +1
Weeks in the top 10: 15
Weeks as #1: 2
Wins: 1 (Darlington 1)
Power Average: 12.68
How can a driver win and drop out of the top 10? Like his teammate Blaney, Logano has been hanging onto his ranking by the narrowest of margins and when the Bristol dirt race aged out of the formula, he has been left with two results outside the top 20 and four outside the top 15. Next week his 32nd-place finish in Talladega will no longer weigh him down, so he should rebound quickly.
Winners, Last 45 Days (Outright Odds to win)
Enjoy Illinois 300, Joey Logano (+850)
Coke 600, Denny Hamlin (+1200)
All-Star Race, Ryan Blaney (+1000)
AdventHealth 400, Kurt Busch (+2000)
Goodyear 400, Joey Logano (+800)
Drydene 400, Chase Elliott (+650)
Geico 500, Ross Chastain (+3000)
Power Average, Last 45 Days
This Week | Driver | Power Avg. | Last Week | Difference |
1. | 7.16 | 1 | 0 | |
2. | 7.38 | 5 | 3 | |
3. | 7.70 | 6 | 3 | |
4. | 8.29 | 2 | -2 | |
5. | 9.44 | 3 | -2 | |
6. | 10.49 | 4 | -2 | |
7. | 11.30 | 12 | 5 | |
8. | 12.00 | 14 | 6 | |
8. | 12.00 | 7 | -1 | |
10. | 12.21 | 13 | 3 | |
|
|
|
|
|
11. | 12.94 | 8 | -3 | |
12. | 13.00 | 10 | -2 | |
13. | 13.39 | 9 | -4 | |
14. | 13.48 | 11 | -3 | |
15. | 15.29 | 20 | 5 | |
16. | 15.85 | 22 | 6 | |
17. | 16.19 | 15 | -2 | |
18. | 16.41 | 16 | -2 | |
19. | 16.43 | 17 | -2 | |
20. | 17.19 | 18 | -2 | |
21. | 17.62 | 19 | -2 | |
22. | 19.66 | 25 | 3 | |
23. | 19.84 | 21 | -2 | |
24. | 20.97 | 24 | 0 | |
25. | 21.00 | 28 | 3 | |
26. | 21.68 | 23 | -3 | |
27. | 22.44 | 29 | 2 | |
28. | 22.58 | 26 | -2 | |
29. | 23.73 | 32 | 3 | |
30. | 23.94 | 30 | 0 | |
31. | 24.63 | 27 | -4 | |
32. | 25.60 | 34 | 2 | |
33. | 25.75 |
| NA | |
34. | 26.17 | 31 | -3 | |
35. | 26.55 | 35 | 0 | |
36. | 27.03 | 33 | -3 | |
37. | 29.60 | 41 | 4 | |
38. | 30.27 | 37 | -1 | |
39. | 30.30 | 38 | -1 | |
40. | 30.50 | 40 | 0 | |
41. | 30.80 | 39 | -2 | |
42. | 32.13 | 42 | 0 | |
43. | 32.25 |
| NA | |
44. | 32.33 | 43 | -1 | |
45. | 35.80 | 45 | 0 |
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2022, After Week 4 [Phoenix 1]
After Week 7 [Richmond 1]
2021, After Week 15 [Charlotte]
