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Coming off a thrilling Late Sweat win last week (cashed a ticket at 17-1) when the Kings stormed from behind to blitz the Lakers, the boys are back at it tonight as the Denver Nuggets (22-20) host the Los Angeles Clippers (22-23) at Ball Arena.
It is an opportunity for the Nuggets to gain a measure of revenge against the Clippers. On January 11, the Nuggets blew a 25-point third quarter lead in Los Angeles losing 87-85 to the Clippers. Denver won the previous two meetings against LA.
Paul George and Kawhi Leonard remain on the shelf for the Clippers as does Jamal Murray for the Nuggets. Sources are reporting Denver has acquired shooting guard Bryn Forbes from the San Antonio Spurs. It is doubtful, however, that the 3-point specialist will be available for this contest.
Corey Parson, Vaughn Dalzell, Kenny Ducey, Jake Wolf, and Johnathan Wright each take a unique look at a single aspect of tonight’s game where they are seeing value. Play them individually or should you choose to parlay all five and really work up a sweat, know that PointsBet Sports Book has decided to boost the odds.
Join NBC Sports EDGE Late Sweat crew tonight from 9:30-10 Eastern on Twitter Spaces as they talk all things NBA.
Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec): Denver Nuggets ML
Happy to be back with the Late Sweat gang again this week. Our parlay is slightly less risky this week than last according to the books, but it does not mean it is not worth playing. I will lead off tonight’s play with a play on the Nuggets to win outright. The Clippers are without Kawhi and Paul George, but the Nuggets’ lineup is somewhat in transition. Jamal Murray is still out. The Bryn Forbes’ trade is done, but he is not yet in the lineup. Whose minutes will Forbes take? That uncertainty affects the mindset of the locker room at least short-term.
However, the best player on the court tonight plays for Denver. Denver’s offense continues to run through the defending league MVP, Nikola Jokic. He is averaging 25.3 points, 13.9 rebounds and 7.4 assists a game. Jokic has recorded a triple-double in his last two games and has nine on the season. As mentioned earlier, these two teams just met last week and featured a major comeback by the Clippers. Do not count on the Nuggets giving up a lead like that again. That is why I am on the Nuggets’ Money Line. In addition, the Clippers - who are more beat up than the Nuggets - are 1-4 ML and ATS in their last five road games.
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports): Aaron Gordon 10+ Points
In the last 11 games, Aaron Gordon has scored 10 or more points in nine of those contests. In the previous two games, Gordon scored 20 points on the Jazz and 11 versus the Lakers.
Four games ago, Gordon and the Nuggets met the Clippers. Gordon scored 30 points and totaled 12 rebounds over 35 minutes in a two-point loss. Over 12 career meetings versus the Clippers, Gordon has scored at least 10 points eight times (66.6%), including five of the past seven (71.4%).
Our NBC Sports EDGE Projection model predicts Gordon to score 14.8 points and with his prop set at 13.5 to 14.5 on most sports books -- this is a safe play for a SGP.
Kenny Ducey (@KennyDucey): Nikola Jokic under 1.5 threes
Nikola Jokic simply has not been a threat from three lately. The bigman has drained multiple triples just twice in the last 14 games, attempting just over three per game. Considering he is just a 34.8% shooter from three for his career and 35.9% this season, I am not too confident he can hit more than one three given that type of volume.
I also think the matchup really suits Jokic inside rather than out. Los Angeles likes to play small ball and lacks a real disruptor to slow Jokic in the post. There should be no reason for him to hang outside the arc and in a potential blowout there is the added bonus of depressed minutes for the bigman.
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Jake Wolf (@JakeWolf13): Nikola Jokic 10+ Rebounds (-700)
The Clippers own the third-worst rebounding rate in the league so far this season at only 48.2%, including the NBA’s worst non-garbage time defensive rebounding rate according to Cleaning the Glass. L.A. also allows the third-most second-chance points to opponents and gives up an even higher rebounding rate with Paul George off the floor. Denver ranks in the top-10 in rebounding rate, grabbing over 50% of available misses, with the second-best defensive rebounding rate in the league.
Jokic has been unstoppable on the glass this year with 14 rebounds per game, the second-most in the league. He has been even better since Michael Porter Jr.‘s injury, averaging 14.2 boards in 31 games without MPJ. The reigning MVP put up 17.5 rebounds per game in his first two matchups against L.A. this season, including a dominant 22-rebound outing against the Clippers. Jokic grabbed at least 10 boards in all but five of his first 37 games this season, including 11 of his last 12, and he should cruise past this number again tonight.
Johnathan Wright (@JwrightOfficial): Aaron Gordon To Get 4+ Rebounds
Aaron Gordon has found his rhythm with the Denver Nuggets and is not afraid to crash the boards. He is averaging 5.7 rebounds a game and is recording an adjusted rebound chance percentage of 68.4%. The Denver Nuggets will be up against the Los Angeles Clippers tonight, which is a matchup that favors Gordon’s rebounding total. Los Angeles allows opposing teams to collect 48.1 rebounds per game (2nd most in the NBA), and 11.08 of those boards are going to the power forward position. Moreover, Gordon tallied a season-high 12 rebounds in his last matchup against the Clippers.
Aaron Gordon has recorded at least four rebounds in 29 out of his 39 games this season (74.3%) and in seven of his last ten. Our NBC projection model predicts the Arizona product will collect 7.5 boards tonight, cashing us this leg of the parlay.
Late Sweat Summary:
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) Aaron Gordon 10+ Points (-425)
Corey Parsons (@TheFantasyExec) Denver Nuggets ML (-325)
Kenny Ducey (@KennyDucey) Nikola Jokic Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-140)
Jake Wolf (@JakeWolf13) Nikola Jokic 10+ Rebounds (-700)
Johnathan Wright (@JwrightOfficial) Aaron Gordon 4+ Rebounds (-651)
Enjoy the game and enjoy The Late Sweat.
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