Editor’s Note: Don’t just bet your favorite sports. LIVE YOUR BET LIFE! Get started today at PointsBet with two risk-free bets up to $2,000. Bet now!
Welcome to another Late Sweat. Tonight, it is the Play-In Tournament Edition. The crew has taken a deep dive into the play-in games in Atlanta and in New Orleans to find value for you, the bettor. Both games feature the 9th and 10th seeded teams in their respective conferences.
The Atlanta Hawks will look to launch tonight a repeat of the playoff success they enjoyed last season. To do so, they will need their 2-time All-Star Trae Young to lead the way and score far more than the paltry nine points he mustered the last time the Hawks faced the Hornets.
The San Antonio Spurs are the 10th seed out West, but they did knock off the Pelicans three out of the four times they played this season including both games played in New Orleans. The Pelicans played the entire season without Zion Williamson. They began the year with 12 losses in their first 13 games before righting the ship and finishing the season 35-34.
The Late Sweat crew has taken a deeper dive into these games to find value. Corey Parson, Vaughn Dalzell, Kenny Ducey, Johnathan Wright, and Jake Wolf each have taken a unique look at a single aspect of the game. Parlay the five together and get a boost from PointsBet from +1200 to +1500.
https://co.pointsbet.com/sports/name-a-bet/Booster-Odds-Hub/175528
Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec): Atlanta Hawks ML (-226)
If the Atlanta Hawks make a run back to the Eastern Conference Finals this season, they will have to do it from the play-in tournament. The Hawks and Hornets finished the regular season with identical records of 43-39. They split the season series with each team winning twice. The venue tonight is State Farm Arena in Atlanta because the Hawks had the better divisional record.
Charlotte won the most recent meeting, but they will not win tonight. I do expect tonight’s game to be close and for that reason I am not willing to lay the points with the Hawks. Last season’s playoffs was a coming out party for Trae Young. I expect the Hawks’ 2-time All-Star to pick right up where he left off last Spring.
One additional note: In eight previous NBA play-in tournament games the Home team is 7-1 on the Money Line but only 4-4 ATS.
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports):
Terry Rozier UNDER 30.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-125)
Rozier has averaged 11.6 points, 4.3 assists and 4.0 rebounds in three meetings with Atlanta this season (19.9 PRA). Over the last five games entering the play-in tournament, Rozier averaged 17.6 points, 5.8 assists and 4.2 rebounds (27.6 PRA), so this line is pretty high on both accounts.
Rozier hit the Under 30.5 PRA in eight out his last 10 games (80%) and 11 of the past 13 (84.6%) dating back to March 16. In his last six meetings versus Atlanta, Rozier has gone Under 30.5 PRA five times (83.3%) and 13 out of the previous 14 (92.8%) as a Hornet and Celtic.
This number is inflated due to him hitting the Over versus the Magic and Wizards in two of the past three games -- two teams he should hit the Over against. Rozier goes Under today. I have him at 27.8 PRA and our model has 28.8, so both showing an edge.
Editor’s Note: Now, all our premium tools for Fantasy, DFS and Betting are included in one subscription at one low price. Customers can subscribe to NBC Sports EDGE+ monthly ($9.99) or save 20% on an annual subscription ($95.88). And don’t forget to use promo code SAVE10 to get 10% off. Click here to learn more!
Kenny Ducey (@KennyDucey): Kevin Huerter OVER 12.5 Points (-121)
A year ago, Kevin Huerter was an integral part of the Hawks’ offense in the playoffs, averaging 11.1 points per game. That came in 31 minutes on average, where he took 10 shots per game and 5.3 from three. Add in the fact he only shot 34.7% from downtown and it is obvious Huerter could have easily been even better for Atlanta.
Heading into this play-in game, Huerter is red-hot. During this 7-2 run the Hawks have been on, he has averaged nearly 16 points per game on about 11 looks per game and seven per game from three. He shot an even-better 38.9% from three this season, and if afforded this type of usage I do not see why he cannot hit and even exceed 13 points. I expect Atlanta to get him the ball plenty in what should be a high-scoring affair, and if a lot of his attempts come from three — as they have been of late — Kevin Huerter should flirt with a 20-point night.
Johnathan Wright (@JwrightOfficial): Dejounte Murray OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-145)
Dejounte Murray was phenomenal throughout the regular season. He ranks second amongst guards in rebounds per game, averaging 8.3 boards. The 25-year-old is a world-class rebounder due to both his size, a 6'10" wingspan, but also his team-first mentality.
“If I don’t score a point, I’m going get a rebound. If I don’t rebound, I’m going to facilitate or play defense,” Murray said in 2017 when talking about his approach to the game.
Moreover, the Pelicans rank in the bottom nine defensively when it comes to opposing point guards’ rebounds per game. In the three games the Spurs and New Orleans have played this season, Murray has averaged nine rebounds. Expect the Washington product to have a similar performance tonight in the biggest game of San Antonio’s season up to this point and cash this leg of the parlay.
Jake Wolf (@JakeWolf13): Jakob Poeltl 8+ Rebounds (-145)
Jakob Poeltl grabbed at least eight boards in seven of the last eight games in which he played at least 25 minutes, and I anticipate a full workload for the big man in this high-stakes play-in game. The NBC Sports EDGE player projection model expects Poeltl to blow past this number and grab 11 rebounds.
Poeltl finished 16th in the league with 9.3 rebounds per game despite averaging fewer minutes than all but three of the league’s top-15 rebounders. San Antonio’s center tied for the third-most contested rebounds per game and averaged 10.5 rebounds in four matchups with the Pelicans this season. I think Poeltl will grab at least eight boards tonight and would consider taking the +110 odds for him to reach double-digit rebounds.
Late Sweat Summary:
Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec): Atlanta Hawks ML (-226)
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports): Terry Rozier UNDER 30.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (-125)
Kenny Ducey (@KennyDucey): Kevin Huerter OVER 12.5 Points (-121)
Johnathan Wright (@JwrightOfficial): Dejounte Murray OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-145)
Jake Wolf (@JakeWolf13): Jakob Poeltl 8+ Rebounds (-145)
Enjoy the game and enjoy The Late Sweat.
If you are interested in parlaying these five plays, enjoy a boost to your parlay from +1200 to +1500 courtesy of PointsBet.
https://co.pointsbet.com/sports/name-a-bet/Booster-Odds-Hub/175528
PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. NJ, IA, IN, IL, CO, MI, VA, WV only. 21+. T&C apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.