Jimmy Butler‘s point prop is very enigmatic for oddsmakers. They’re pretty much throwing darts at the wall and hoping for the best.
Butler’s prop for Game 1 was (O/U) 21.5 points against the Milwaukee Bucks. All Butler did was light the scoreboard up for 40 points as the Miami Heat stole the series opener 115-104. So for Game 2, sportsbooks naturally raised the number to account for the perception and the expected bets on Butler’s over. The number in that contest was 24 or 24.5 and he scored only 13 points.
Butler’s prop tonight has been recalibrated and thrown back up at 20.5 points with -115 juice each way at PointsBet Sportsbook.
That number is just too low.[[ad:athena]]
For the first time this series, I believe the Bucks will control the majority of this basketball game. That’s not to say that they’ll win, but their backs are against the wall and I expect their best effort. Parlay that with some likely help from the officials and you’ve got enough of a scenario to get Jimmy Butler back into alpha mode.
I covered Butler’s rise to stardom for five seasons in Chicago. He was one of my favorite players to watch because he was always motivated to prove you wrong. When Butler was drafted by the Bulls out of Marquette with the 30th pick, experts and pundits said he couldn’t shoot and he wasn’t a threat to score. So Jimmy hit the gym and worked and worked and worked.
He averaged 8.6 points per game in his first full season, 13.1 the following year and 20.0 the year after that. But it’s more than just statistics. Butler is one of those “chest out” players. When somebody would hit a shot on him in practice, Jimmy would knock down three. When another superstar started to get on a roll in a game, Jimmy wanted to prove that he could do it too.
It feels strange to even type this out, but if Giannis Antetokounmpo plays well, that’s even better for Butler’s point prop. And unlike when Butler had to share shots with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid in Philly, this is his team. The shot volume is there for the taking if he wants it.
Butler was totally fine with playing facilitator in the last game. That’s all fine and dandy, but every game is different. He didn’t have to be the dude. Tonight, he’ll need to put on the cape if Miami wants to win this game.
I expect Butler to take at least 15 shots tonight and wouldn’t be surprised if that number is closer to 20. And if he’s aggressive in the shot department, that means he’ll be aggressive at getting to the basket and the foul line. Butler can smell the blood in the water. If you don’t think he’s going for the kill tonight, well, just wait and see.
Play on Jimmy Butler Over 20.5 points (-115).
