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Broncos (-6.5) at Seahawks: O/U 44.0
Russell Wilson makes his long-awaited debut as a Bronco and it will come in Seattle where he suited up for his entire career.
There will be a lot of money pouring in on the Broncos -6.5 and -7, but historically, home underdogs perform very well on Monday Night Football.
For home underdogs on MNF last season, the Under hit seven-straight to close the season (7-2 overall) and 7-2 ATS (77.8%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
In 2021 and 2020, the Under was 13-7 (65%) and 13-7 ATS (65%) for home dogs. In 2019, home dogs were 3-3 to the Under (50%) and 1-5 ATS (16.6%), while going 5-0 to the Under (100%) in 2018 and 2-3 ATS (40%).
I like the historical data better for home dogs to the Under rather than ATS, but I lean the Hawks here.
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In the four games that Geno Smith started last year, the game scores combined for 43 or fewer points in all four and the Seahawks scored 17 (Rams), 20 (Steelers), 10 (Saints) and 31 points (Jaguars).
Russell Wilson has an impressive 10-3 ML record on MNF (76.9%) and a 9-4 mark to the Under (69.2%).
The Under is 5-1 when Wilson is the road quarterback on MNF (83.3%) and 4-0 to the Under as a road favorite (100%).
Smith is 4-0 to the Under in his last four MNF starts dating back to 2014. He has lost five-straight MNF starts, going 2-3 ATS in that span (40%). Smith covered on MNF versus Jameis Winston and the Saints last year (+5.5).
If there is any coach that could use schemes that slow down Wilson, it is his former head coach Pete Carroll.
I don’t have much faith in the Seahawks scoring 20-plus points, but I do want to mention that the Broncos Team Total of 25.5 is an odd number and seems more like a trap to entice the public.
The Seahawks secondary wasn’t very good last season because they were on the field a lot. Seattle allowed the most plays per game (70.6), but in terms of points per game (21.5), Seattle almost finished top 10 in the NFL (12th)
I like Carroll to put together a game plan to slow Wilson down, so I will take the Under 44 (-115), playable down to 43.
I will take the +6.5 point teaser of Seahawks +13 and Under 50.5 for a half-unit at -130 odds.
Pick: Under 44 (1u), Seahawks +13 and Under 50.5 Teaser (0.5u)
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