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Broncos at Chargers (-5): O/U 45.5
We have an AFC West matchup to close out Week 6 on Monday Night Football!
I am not sure this AFC West matchup will live up to the Chiefs and Raiders MNF extravaganza, but actually, I am pretty confident it will be quite the opposite.
Denver is second-to-last in the NFL with 15.0 points per game, only ahead of Indianapolis (13.8 ppg). The Broncos have played two road games this season and scored 16 points in a loss to the Seahawks and 23 points in a loss to the Raiders.
Russell Wilson is dealing with a shoulder injury, he strained the latissimus dorsi near his throwing shoulder to be exact. He played with it versus the Colts and that was the same game Denver did no score a single touchdown, nor did Indy, but if you tailed my +7000 no TD scorer bet, well you already knew that.
Wilson went 21-of-39 for 274 passing yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions with four sacks taken. Wilson has taken 16 sacks through five games (6th-most), tossed four touchdowns to three interceptions and owns a 59.4% completion percentage (10th-worst of eligible starters).
In two meetings versus the Chargers last year, Denver scored 28 points in a home win and only 13 points in a road loss versus Los Angeles.
Overall, in the last eight trips to Los Angeles or San Diego, the Under has cashed seven out of eight times (87.5%) between the Broncos and Chargers, per NBC’s Edge Finder (graph below).
Looking over those road games for Denver in the series, the Broncos scored 20 or fewer points six of the past seven outings at the Chargers.
The two out of eight times that the Broncos scored more than 20 points -- 22 and 23-point efforts.
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The Chargers defense has six interceptions through five games and 11 sacks, both above the average in the NFL thus far. The disappointing aspect of the Chargers defense is stopping the run, which ranks last in the league with 5.8 yards per carry allowed and 652 yards allowed (25th).
With no Javonte Williams, it’s just Melvin Gordon who had 54 rushing yards on 15 rushing attempts for a 3.6 yards per carry last week.
Despite no Williams, Gordon totaled a 45.1% snap share versus the Colts, which is the second-highest total on the year (45.6%), per PlayerProfiler. Gordon barely saw the field more than his average share without Williams, so the Broncos don’t love their rushing attack and I don’t blame them.
Going over Gordon’s career, he has never scored versus the Chargers in four games and I don’t expect a breakout game from him. The Chargers faced Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, James Robinson, Dameon Pierce and Clyde Edwards-Helaire this season -- I will say Gordon is the worst back of the bunch and so is his offensive line.
I don’t like anything about this Broncos offense and despite liking the Under, I will roll with the Broncos Team Total Under 20.5 Points at -125 odds on DraftKings.
BetMGM already has this at 19.5 and +105 to the Under. BetMGM also has both teams to score 20-plus points at -165 to the NO. Monday Night Football is 11-4 to the Under in the past 15 games and 3-3 this season.
I don’t see Denver scoring more than two touchdowns in this matchup and once again, the Broncos could have more fields goals made than touchdowns scored.
Pick: Broncos Team Total Under 20.5 (1u)
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
