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T.J. Watt to lead the NFL in Sacks (+600)
T.J. Watt O/U 13.75 Sacks (-140, +110)
Last season the Steelers T.J. Watt tied formers Giants super star Michael Strahan‘s NFL single-season record of 22.5 sacks, earning him the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year Award.
Once again, Watt has a legit chance to lead the NFL in sacks. Most players that have totaled 20 sacks rebound for 11-12 sacks in the following season on average, but Watt is unlike most. The outside linebacker and edge rusher is the best in the NFL at getting to the quarterback and he has some very positive matchups in 2022.
Pittsburgh will play eight games against five teams that ranked bottom-six in sacks allowed last season. Three of them are in the division (Browns, Bengals, Ravens), meaning six games versus those teams, while the other two are versus the Jets and Panthers.
Against AFC North opponents, Watt has found success. The Browns have Jacoby Brissett, Josh Dobbs and signed Josh Rosen as it looks bleak that Deshaun Watson plays, while Lamar Jackson took the most sacks of his career last year with only 12 games played and Joe Burrow was the most sacked player in the NFL. Over Watt’s career in the AFC North, here are the numbers.
Vs Cleveland: 14.5 Sacks in 9 games (four multi-sack games)
Vs Baltimore: 10.0 Sacks in 10 games (two multi-sack games)
Vs Cincinnati: 7.5 Sacks in 9 games (two multi-sack games)
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numberFire‘s model predicts Watt to record 20.5 sacks this season with the next closest player at 14.55 (Joey Bosa). That is a substantial difference and if Watt stays healthy, there are not many reasons why he cannot lead the NFL in sacks, tackles for loss, quarterback hurries and fantasy points per game for a defensive player.
Watt led the NFL in sacks during 2021 (22.5 sacks) and 2020 (15.0 sacks). For +600 odds, I like T.J. Watt to lead the NFL in sacks for a third-straight season.
I also played his Over 13.75 sacks this season for -140 odds on DraftKings -- the highest sack prop of any player this year. Watt is +700 to win the NFL DPOY for a second-straight season, but I like leading the league in sacks more.
Pick: T.J. Watt to lead the NFL in sacks (1u), Over 13.75 Sacks (1u)
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